The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

Week 10

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Ohio (-13.5) 34 Akron (U 51.5) 17 0.8404 0.5717 0.5263 Buffalo (+6.5) 21 Miami Oh (O 44.5) 26 0.6157 0.5413 0.5791 Ball St (+3.5) 24 Massachusetts (O 49.5) 26 0.5584 0.5251 0.5230 Toledo (-25.5) 40 Sacramento St (U 52.5) 14 0.9354 0.5080 0.5051 C Michigan (+1.5) 24 E Michigan (O 44.5) 25 0.5171 0.5198 0.5966 UTSA (-7) 40 Florida Atl (O 71.5) 30 0.6823 0.5379 0.5005 James Madison (-14.5) 40 Southern Miss (O 57.5) 20 0.8838 0.6385 0.5334 Virginia Tech (O 55.5) 21 SMU (-5.5) 34 0.7750 0.6669 0.5069 South Florida (+1.5) 23 East Carolina (O 40.5) 22 0.5151 0.5524 0.5951 Nebraska (U 49.5) 27 Illinois (+4.5) 24 0.5605 0.5481 0.5053 New Mexico (O 38.5) 30 Nevada (+10.5) 20 0.7237 0.5226 0.6999 TCU (O 43.5) 17 Arizona (-9.5) 30 0.7847 0.5767 0.5387 Clemson (-2.5) 31 Syracuse (U 50.5) 20 0.7515 0.7011 0.5210 Texas (U 44.5) 20 Missouri (+2.5) 21 0.5253 0.5885 0.5769 UCLA (-5.5) 26 Minnesota (O 39.5) 16 0.7378 0.6111 0.5476 North Carolina (-7) 31 Connecticut (O 54.5) 23 0.6768 0.5191 0.5164 Florida St (-6.5) 30 Boston College (O 52.5) 21 0.7011 0.5560 0.5130 Tulsa (U 49.5) 20 Tulane (+1.5) 28 0.6794 0.7114 0.5120 Iowa St (+9.5) 24 Baylor (O 50.5) 30 0.6324 0.5870 0.5922 BYU (O 47.5) 17 Utah (-5.5) 30 0.7931 0.6839 0.5146 Iowa (+2.5) 21 Northwestern (U 44.5) 20 0.5228 0.5865 0.6085 Maryland (O 57.5) 27 Purdue (-6.5) 34 0.6458 0.5005 0.5589 Duke (-4.5) 31 NC State (O 50.5) 24 0.6621 0.5595 0.5636 Arkansas (+10.5) 23 Auburn (U 50.5) 26 0.5767 0.6749 0.5538 *********************************************************************************** * Best Bet against the point spread * Oklahoma St (U 62.5) 24 * Kansas St (+3.5) 34 0.7113 0.7757 0.5532 *********************************************************************************** Old Dominion (+7) 23 C Carolina (O 44.5) 24 0.5016 0.6664 0.5631 Georgia St (+4.5) 30 Appalachian St (O 55.5) 31 0.5166 0.5866 0.5573 Delaware (O 56) 28 Kennesaw St (+2.5) 30 0.5494 0.6060 0.5028 UL Monroe (U 52.5) 17 Arkansas St (-14.5) 33 0.8403 0.5432 0.5692 Texas A&M (+7.5) 26 South Carolina (U 51.5) 27 0.5196 0.6561 0.5024 Penn St (+2) 24 Washington (O 44.5) 23 0.5060 0.5552 0.5636 Cincinnati (+10.5) 24 Houston (U 62.5) 31 0.6662 0.5747 0.6718 Temple (+7.5) 24 Navy (U 53.5) 30 0.6416 0.5338 0.5488 Oregon (U 48.5) 19 Ohio St (-7.5) 31 0.7648 0.6004 0.5246 Alabama (U 52.5) 23 LSU (-5.5) 31 0.6780 0.5498 0.5454 Marshall (+10.5) 24 Georgia So (U 54.5) 33 0.7055 0.5330 0.5210 Charlotte (O 47.5) 20 UAB (-9.5) 33 0.7860 0.5858 0.5761 W Kentucky (+1.5) 26 Middle Tenn St (O 52.5) 27 0.5055 0.5304 0.5066 C Florida (O 48.5) 21 Kansas (-2.5) 33 0.7559 0.7067 0.5760 Louisiana Tech (-5) 26 Troy (U 47.5) 17 0.7060 0.5897 0.5830 N Illinois (+9.5) 20 San Jose St (U 51.5) 27 0.6656 0.5672 0.6500 Rice (O 64.5) 21 North Texas (-16.5) 50 0.9460 0.7561 0.5992 Missouri St (U 50.5) 20 Florida Intl (-4.5) 27 0.6570 0.5505 0.5845 *********************************************************************************** * Best Bet against the Over/Under * Vanderbilt (+3) 31 * Mississippi St (O 48.5) 33 0.5394 0.5293 0.7598 *********************************************************************************** Rutgers (+17) 14 Wisconsin (O 45.5) 30 0.8400 0.5257 0.5150 S Alabama (+8.5) 28 UL Lafayette (O 57.5) 35 0.6481 0.5394 0.6190 Boise St (-17.5) 44 Colorado St (U 68.5) 21 0.8961 0.6107 0.5484 Kentucky (O 50.5) 23 Tennessee (-6.5) 30 0.6709 0.5210 0.5539 Sam Houston St (U 48.5) 14 Jacksonville St (-16.5) 33 0.8739 0.5476 0.5580 Colorado (U 48.5) 21 Arizona St (-3.5) 27 0.6443 0.5616 0.5016 Michigan St (+13) 17 Michigan (O 39.5) 26 0.7156 0.6068 0.5536 Georgia (O 56.5) 31 Mississippi (+3.5) 30 0.5013 0.5795 0.5365 Louisville (O 60.5) 37 Georgia Tech (+14.5) 26 0.7333 0.5768 0.5351 Miami Fl (+5.5) 28 Notre Dame (U 57.5) 30 0.5563 0.5713 0.5026 Air Force (+3.5) 26 Army (O 45.5) 27 0.5156 0.5669 0.6433 Oklahoma (+6.5) 21 Florida (O 45.5) 27 0.6430 0.5145 0.5451 Liberty (-17) 35 New Mexico St (O 47.5) 16 0.8739 0.5385 0.5134 Fresno St (O 42.5) 21 Utah St (+2.5) 24 0.5718 0.6320 0.5581 Hawaii (-9.5) 31 Texas-El Paso (O 48.5) 20 0.7409 0.5261 0.5244 West Virginia (O 63.5) 21 Texas Tech (-16.5) 44 0.8955 0.6311 0.5620 Texas St (U 71.5) 30 Oregon St (-6.5) 40 0.7015 0.5692 0.5533 Wyoming (U 47.5) 16 UNLV (-6.5) 31 0.8374 0.7141 0.6053 2026 Record Straight-up vs. Spread Over/Under Last Week 41-11-0 0.788 25-27-0 0.481 16-36-0 0.308 Season 373-121-0 0.755 240-251-3 0.489 231-262-1 0.469 Best Bet (Spread) Best Bet (Over/Under) Last Week 1-0-0 1.000 0-1-0 0.000 Season 6-4-0 0.600 4-6-0 0.400

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net
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"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)"

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review this year's predictions: week 0 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9
Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.