The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2011 Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  

                         Rating HomeAd
     LSU               104.7221 1.9819
     Alabama           101.1665 1.6432
     Stanford           98.2615 1.1794
     Oregon             97.5283 1.9420
     Boise St           95.8235 0.7288
     Oklahoma St        95.4123 2.2996
     Oklahoma           91.7101 3.5888
     Wisconsin          90.0124 5.7622
     USC                89.4787 1.2772
     Florida St         86.8882 2.0539
     Arkansas           86.6846 4.5402
     Michigan           85.9812 4.7883
     South Carolina     85.4405 5.2266
     Nebraska           84.5160 1.9589
     TCU                84.5151 3.3264
     Houston            84.1363 3.1058
     Michigan St        83.5868 5.6237
     Florida            83.2401 2.0312
     Notre Dame         83.1021 2.5781
     Missouri           83.0951 2.7745
     Texas A&M          82.7383 4.6122
     Georgia            82.3525 4.6611
     Texas              81.4915 3.0067
     Arizona St         81.3094 4.9830
     Virginia Tech      81.2340 1.8945
     Kansas St          80.6147 2.7777
     Utah               79.9951 1.2270
     Miami Fl           79.8679 2.1477
     Clemson            79.2753 3.8627
     Ohio St            78.4336 3.2172
     West Virginia      78.3223 4.1162
     Mississippi St     78.2939 3.7539
     Iowa               77.5653 4.2210
     Cincinnati         77.0416 3.1483
     Vanderbilt         76.6278 2.3130
     California         76.2297 5.3254
     Pittsburgh         76.2166 2.5181
     North Carolina     76.0390 2.9659
     Penn St            75.9834 2.3364
     Auburn             75.0711 3.5130
     Arizona            74.9013 3.5644
     Washington         74.6654 3.8945
     Tulsa              74.6526 1.7293
     Temple             74.4935 1.4875
     Rutgers            74.3330 2.4379
     BYU                74.2939 1.5419
     Baylor             74.2217 5.4434
     Georgia Tech       73.8532 2.5117
     Louisiana Tech     73.8512 3.3702
     Southern Miss      73.2736 3.0659
     Toledo             73.2010 1.7278
     South Florida      72.9895 1.8538
     Louisville         72.6172 1.7160
     Tennessee          72.5573 3.9881
     Northwestern       72.0100 2.2565
     NC State           71.8387 4.8463
     Oregon St          71.8380 3.8366
     Nevada             71.8105 5.1602
     San Diego St       71.4743 3.6638
     Air Force          71.2568 0.8991
     Illinois           71.2147 3.8076
     Navy               70.8461 0.1296
     Texas Tech         70.2384 0.7765
     Iowa St            70.0475 3.5000
     UCLA               69.5355 4.6014
     Boston College     69.2228 1.9824
     Arkansas St        69.0823 5.1881
     Wake Forest        68.1612 3.2723
     Kentucky           68.1508 2.6863
     C Florida          68.1412 4.7006
     Connecticut        68.0216 3.7385
     N Illinois         67.9488 5.2384
     Virginia           67.8333 0.6276
     W Michigan         67.1068 3.7287
     Syracuse           66.7150 3.2343
     Washington St      66.4472 3.6022
     SMU                66.0081 3.4252
     UL Lafayette       65.0432 1.1726
     Purdue             64.9479 3.0707
     Minnesota          64.6620 2.8845
     Fresno St          64.4852 1.1038
     Ohio               64.2934 4.2298
     Duke               64.2715 2.1734
     Florida Intl       64.1575 3.4411
     East Carolina      63.6853 3.4015
     Hawaii             63.4753 3.1074
     W Kentucky         62.8211 2.5366
     Colorado           62.8026 6.4404
     Maryland           62.7851 3.5303
     Utah St            62.4009 3.2377
     Mississippi        61.9368 2.7672
     Miami Oh           61.5531 2.7577
     UL Monroe          61.4900 3.3791
     Texas-El Paso      59.9889 4.1095
     Army               59.8947 5.1386
     Wyoming            59.6412 4.1202
     San Jose St        59.4370 2.5403
     Bowling Green      58.0800 1.0542
     Marshall           57.8529 5.4833
     Rice               57.3742 3.5592
     Indiana            57.0840 3.9368
     North Texas        56.3431 5.0200
     Kent               56.3280 3.3351
     Kansas             55.8291 3.4089
     Troy St            55.6953 1.4498
     Ball St            54.8652 0.3919
     C Michigan         53.9254 1.7163
     E Michigan         53.6818 2.5538
     Colorado St        52.4047 3.6113
     Idaho              51.2187 2.1371
     New Mexico St      50.5757 3.2332
     Middle Tenn St     50.1854 2.5793
     Buffalo            49.9778 4.1966
     Tulane             49.4100 0.0327
     UAB                49.3291 2.6823
     UNLV               47.9621 8.3109
     Florida Atl        46.1378 1.5294
     Memphis            42.2716 2.2916
     New Mexico         40.7620 3.1727
     Akron              39.7085 2.7855



Ratings include games of 12/31/11.



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Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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