The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2014 Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                         Rating  HomeAd
     Alabama           100.3336 -1.0638
     Florida St         93.8201  3.3718
     Mississippi        93.6485  1.5633
     Georgia            92.8418  2.1971
     Auburn             92.5606  3.6034
     Oregon             91.5952  2.8615
     Baylor             89.8454  4.9629
     Oklahoma           88.7036  4.4240
     Ohio St            88.6308  3.1608
     TCU                88.5231  4.5426
     Stanford           87.1601  0.2804
     LSU                86.8061  0.8486
     Mississippi St     86.3789  3.5672
     Michigan St        86.1414  2.2096
     Clemson            85.8631  4.4744
     USC                85.8111  0.3763
     Nebraska           85.3057  3.3452
     Notre Dame         84.5274  3.2379
     Missouri           84.0102  2.3297
     Kansas St          83.4265  5.3279
     Louisville         82.8685  0.4700
     UCLA               82.0997  5.8455
     Texas A&M          80.9640  7.6878
     Oklahoma St        80.8817  6.0692
     Utah               80.8241  1.6821
     Wisconsin          80.4612  5.5219
     Arizona St         80.3604  8.9133
     South Carolina     79.5289  3.4458
     Washington         79.2980  4.3852
     Arizona            78.8532  3.2490
     Texas              77.2032 -1.0631
     BYU                77.1655  1.7120
     Virginia Tech      76.9522  2.1018
     Florida            76.8763  4.1566
     Duke               76.7103  0.1237
     West Virginia      76.3171  3.9756
     Arkansas           76.1768  6.8410
     Georgia Tech       75.8390  1.2464
     Miami Fl           75.2414  4.0520
     Tennessee          75.1255  4.1570
     Marshall           74.2620  8.7523
     Oregon St          73.7275  4.7215
     Iowa               73.2544  2.4838
     East Carolina      72.9259  4.6662
     Utah St            72.8508  0.0293
     C Florida          71.9724  4.4778
     Northwestern       71.9497  0.0162
     Boise St           71.8688  4.9163
     Maryland           71.5628  3.1829
     Washington St      71.3742  1.0834
     Boston College     70.8920  4.1191
     Minnesota          70.7422  4.8836
     North Carolina     70.5948  3.2332
     Houston            70.3788  2.8964
     Iowa St            70.2686  4.1421
     Memphis            70.1293  1.3314
     Colorado St        69.6864  4.6622
     Syracuse           69.5559  4.8939
     Penn St            69.3089  5.0556
     Pittsburgh         69.1463  2.2967
     Texas Tech         68.2167  3.6696
     Virginia           68.0747  2.7032
     Nevada             67.6716  6.3816
     Michigan           67.5994  5.1353
     Cincinnati         66.9215  5.1583
     Navy               66.6364 -5.7271
     Kentucky           66.5613  4.5524
     Temple             66.5074  0.5205
     Louisiana Tech     66.3124  7.2581
     UTSA               66.2251 -7.4185
     Rutgers            65.9981  2.7264
     California         65.2411  3.9521
     Arkansas St        65.0312  6.7651
     NC State           64.6967  2.0101
     W Kentucky         64.5821 -3.5330
     Vanderbilt         64.3187 -1.0455
     Toledo             63.5013  4.3270
     Fresno St          63.0605  4.6689
     Indiana            62.9865  5.6968
     San Diego St       62.5394  3.7394
     Georgia So         61.9624  2.5756
     Illinois           61.9082  1.5209
     San Jose St        61.7323  2.6019
     Rice               61.6309  6.3515
     N Illinois         61.1154  4.3401
     Ball St            61.0372  2.1033
     Purdue             59.5633  1.9445
     Colorado           59.5076  5.3363
     Bowling Green      59.1446  1.4832
     Middle Tenn St     58.0088  6.6147
     UAB                57.8740  2.3666
     UL Lafayette       57.7976  0.0710
     Florida Atl        57.7790  2.4680
     Air Force          57.1508  2.3747
     Wake Forest        56.9649  2.3943
     S Alabama          56.8440  1.6509
     South Florida      56.4602  1.6724
     C Michigan         55.6667  4.3289
     W Michigan         55.3450  0.6763
     Wyoming            55.0117  5.5468
     Kansas             54.9426  6.4277
     Akron              54.8781  2.0378
     Tulane             54.6571  2.6860
     Buffalo            54.0597  4.2460
     North Texas        53.8322  4.6350
     Hawaii             53.2016  8.0998
     UL Monroe          51.8226  0.7681
     Florida Intl       50.8815  3.0875
     Connecticut        50.7714  5.4168
     Tulsa              50.6568  2.7073
     New Mexico         50.6297  3.8584
     Army               49.4803  5.0303
     Old Dominion       49.3607 -0.7322
     Ohio               49.2124  5.2210
     UNLV               48.9688  6.2623
     Kent St            48.8793  0.9112
     Southern Miss      48.7849  2.8687
     Texas St           48.7144  2.6745
     Texas-El Paso      48.1125  5.9752
     Miami Oh           47.9885  1.3390
     Appalachian St     47.8717 -1.1124
     Massachusetts      47.6698  3.2105
     Georgia St         44.8750 -2.5122
     SMU                43.9811  3.9434
     Troy               42.8927  4.2053
     Idaho              42.0435  1.5299
     New Mexico St      37.7838  5.3462
     E Michigan         35.1116  1.2687


Ratings include games from through 10/18/14.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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