The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2015 Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                        Rating  HomeAd
     Alabama           96.9980  8.6200
     Oregon            96.9325  2.4798
     TCU               94.8919  6.4476
     Ohio St           94.6852  2.5137
     Georgia           92.1105  4.1813
     Baylor            90.2815  7.1367
     Michigan St       90.1183  2.9901
     Auburn            89.9739  5.2136
     Mississippi       88.0748  1.9458
     Stanford          87.6173  3.3427
     Mississippi St    87.5214  5.0657
     Clemson           87.2567  1.1063
     Oklahoma          87.1315  1.2530
     Arkansas          87.0663  0.9206
     Florida St        86.8653  5.9712
     Kansas St         86.5482  4.2354
     USC               86.0225  3.0781
     UCLA              85.8498  0.2734
     Wisconsin         85.6021  3.0662
     Missouri          85.3711 -0.9940
     LSU               85.1255  4.6850
     Georgia Tech      84.6349  4.6251
     Florida           83.6136 -0.5466
     Arizona St        83.3302  5.7925
     Nebraska          82.9746  2.2841
     Louisville        82.3104  0.5337
     South Carolina    81.7360 -0.6657
     Texas A&M         81.5575  2.5226
     Utah              81.5020 -0.2540
     Arizona           80.5385  3.7092
     Washington        79.8169  3.2551
     Notre Dame        79.7270  3.5727
     West Virginia     79.1807  1.7944
     Oklahoma St       78.5102  0.1589
     Boise St          78.2349  3.9038
     Texas             77.7533 -0.8961
     Marshall          77.6670  3.4939
     Virginia Tech     77.6630 -0.0280
     Miami Fl          77.4777  4.9490
     Tennessee         76.5779  6.8525
     Duke              76.1941  2.4156
     Iowa              75.9503  1.5418
     BYU               74.6569  3.2702
     Minnesota         74.5094  7.1261
     Boston College    73.9082  4.8872
     Pittsburgh        73.0079  2.2488
     Cincinnati        72.7735  3.1120
     Penn St           72.6613  2.0266
     Utah St           72.5486 -0.6649
     C Florida         72.3706  5.7438
     Louisiana Tech    72.2891  6.9430
     Memphis           72.0954  3.2975
     Michigan          71.9826  2.8302
     Texas Tech        71.7399 -1.3371
     Oregon St         71.7358  2.8624
     Washington St     71.6645 -0.8307
     East Carolina     71.4667  3.6984
     Houston           71.3801  0.1956
     NC State          70.9487  0.3504
     Virginia          70.3691  5.0963
     Maryland          69.9573  3.6139
     California        69.9518  3.5442
     North Carolina    69.7253  2.7193
     Northwestern      69.3132  3.0143
     Colorado St       69.0558  6.5449
     Navy              68.7315  3.5952
     Syracuse          68.3629 -2.2933
     Rutgers           67.9462  3.2723
     Kentucky          67.1368  7.1432
     Nevada            66.8650  3.4137
     Temple            66.2182  1.9680
     Toledo            65.5250  3.4149
     Colorado          65.4959  1.6270
     W Kentucky        65.4437  3.2127
     N Illinois        64.8642  3.0442
     Illinois          64.5090  4.7884
     Georgia So        64.4990  7.6069
     San Diego St      64.4740  3.9389
     Rice              63.7783  5.0039
     Iowa St           63.1347  5.6859
     Vanderbilt        62.9058  0.0262
     UL Lafayette      62.7839 -0.6443
     Indiana           62.7674  4.7972
     Air Force         62.4566  6.7905
     Purdue            62.2676  0.0375
     Arkansas St       62.2536  7.0964
     Appalachian St    62.1119  0.3926
     Fresno St         61.9670  2.9939
     W Michigan        61.3643  1.6827
     Ball St           60.7565 -1.1847
     S Alabama         60.5648 -0.7863
     UAB               60.0100  6.8391
     UTSA              59.8323 -2.4628
     Wyoming           59.6054 -2.5977
     Bowling Green     59.2693  2.0655
     Middle Tenn St    58.9907  3.3881
     C Michigan        58.9069  3.7370
     Texas St          58.1350 -0.8197
     Wake Forest       57.9617  5.6672
     Texas-El Paso     57.9077  3.4311
     Kansas            57.6243  8.7428
     UL Monroe         57.3574 -2.4414
     Old Dominion      57.2664 -2.5360
     Hawaii            56.8155  4.6004
     South Florida     56.5538  1.4107
     Tulane            56.0010  0.9497
     San Jose St       55.1796  2.4377
     North Texas       55.0150  5.5844
     Florida Atl       54.9598  6.5430
     New Mexico        54.9441  1.5543
     Tulsa             54.7609 -0.9256
     Florida Intl      54.5340  1.6444
     Massachusetts     53.9032  0.0167
     Buffalo           53.7513  9.4671
     Akron             53.2663  3.4080
     Southern Miss     53.1966 -2.1178
     Ohio              52.7306  4.4103
     Army              52.2429  3.5224
     Connecticut       52.2403  1.6454
     UNLV              51.5046  0.0113
     Kent St           51.0738  1.1521
     Miami Oh          50.1935  2.0155
     Charlotte         48.9092  3.4824
     Troy              48.5718  3.6269
     SMU               47.2232 -1.0357
     Idaho             45.2438  3.0555
     Georgia St        43.9808 -6.1543
     New Mexico St     41.0259  3.2054
     E Michigan        35.6675  2.7266


Ratings don't include any games from the 2015 season (yet).



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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