The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2014 Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                        Rating  HomeAd
     Alabama           98.8993 -1.1292
     Oregon            93.3353  3.1234
     Baylor            92.6274  4.5607
     Georgia           92.0599  2.7676
     Florida St        88.7532  2.9757
     Mississippi       88.7240  2.2297
     Auburn            88.5898  3.4523
     Oklahoma          88.4239  3.7962
     Ohio St           88.1005  2.9430
     TCU               87.9450  5.4042
     Mississippi St    87.4742  3.7626
     Michigan St       87.4674  2.2019
     Wisconsin         86.0431  5.9649
     LSU               85.9772  1.2516
     Kansas St         84.9473  6.0705
     Stanford          84.6795  0.4171
     USC               83.7875  0.3646
     UCLA              83.6737  6.1444
     Missouri          83.1212  1.8113
     Louisville        82.8701  0.4033
     Georgia Tech      81.6325  1.4423
     Arizona           80.9778  2.5538
     Nebraska          80.8408  3.3180
     Arizona St        80.6833  8.9627
     Arkansas          80.4755  7.6596
     Notre Dame        80.2335  3.3334
     Texas             80.1969 -1.2256
     Clemson           79.8846  4.6826
     Florida           79.8696  3.4422
     South Carolina    79.1056  2.9411
     Texas A&M         78.9960  6.7431
     Utah              78.6552  0.9357
     Washington        77.9650  3.9330
     West Virginia     77.5410  3.9946
     Miami Fl          77.0967  4.3376
     Tennessee         76.6814  4.3035
     Duke              76.0354 -0.6453
     BYU               75.1309  1.7156
     Marshall          74.7167  8.5067
     Boise St          74.1194  5.0186
     Utah St           73.6479 -0.0599
     Iowa              73.4791  3.3861
     Minnesota         73.3752  5.1106
     Oklahoma St       73.2304  5.3076
     Virginia Tech     73.0064  1.9059
     Memphis           71.9455  0.7286
     Northwestern      71.4359  0.0233
     Boston College    71.1351  3.5033
     North Carolina    70.8510  3.1800
     Cincinnati        70.7925  4.6253
     C Florida         70.7027  5.2008
     Colorado St       69.9503  5.0207
     Navy              69.9268 -5.2825
     Washington St     69.6909  0.7668
     East Carolina     69.4035  4.8490
     Penn St           69.2892  5.1097
     Maryland          69.1983  3.2611
     Virginia          69.1525  3.0815
     Pittsburgh        69.1466  2.2841
     Oregon St         69.0135  4.7176
     California        68.0618  3.5680
     Michigan          67.9885  5.2743
     Houston           67.7801  2.1179
     Louisiana Tech    67.4484  8.2072
     Texas Tech        66.8132  3.8871
     Kentucky          65.5141  4.6734
     Temple            65.2932  1.2000
     Iowa St           64.9250  4.0610
     NC State          64.8922  1.9319
     Syracuse          64.6199  4.5726
     W Kentucky        64.5880 -1.0595
     Nevada            64.5293  6.2525
     Rutgers           63.5387  2.8633
     Illinois          62.2736  1.9397
     Toledo            62.1122  4.1453
     Fresno St         62.1027  3.6848
     San Diego St      61.7704  3.8241
     Vanderbilt        61.7654 -1.0094
     Rice              61.6941  6.7664
     N Illinois        61.3912  4.2318
     Arkansas St       61.1428  7.4556
     Indiana           61.1399  5.6532
     Bowling Green     61.1353  1.1425
     Georgia So        61.0733  6.4829
     Colorado          60.8488  5.4408
     Air Force         60.5703  2.3295
     W Michigan        60.4680  1.0675
     Purdue            59.6586  1.7820
     UL Lafayette      59.2913 -0.2310
     UAB               58.5226  2.3466
     UTSA              58.4126 -7.4651
     Appalachian St    57.6818  1.4994
     Kansas            57.4105  7.1641
     Ball St           57.1240  2.0719
     Wake Forest       56.4635  3.1135
     San Jose St       56.1693  2.5947
     Middle Tenn St    56.1572  6.2893
     Wyoming           55.9442  4.1293
     C Michigan        55.8929  3.5245
     Florida Atl       55.6007  2.3919
     South Florida     55.0482  1.1977
     S Alabama         54.6862  2.1567
     Texas-El Paso     54.2457  5.7799
     UL Monroe         54.2278  0.1307
     North Texas       53.4928  4.9450
     Tulane            53.4592  2.2163
     Buffalo           53.1459  4.7765
     Hawaii            52.7679  7.4049
     Akron             52.3909  2.5085
     Texas St          52.0450  4.1745
     New Mexico        52.0185  4.0736
     Old Dominion      51.2991  1.0323
     Tulsa             51.1525  2.5353
     Florida Intl      50.6551  3.1503
     Ohio              49.8203  5.6655
     Connecticut       49.7835  5.2817
     UNLV              48.8207  5.5632
     Kent St           48.3562  0.9327
     Massachusetts     47.8117  5.1329
     Miami Oh          47.6813  1.0163
     Army              47.4677  5.0921
     Southern Miss     47.4465  2.9345
     Troy              45.3154  4.4583
     Idaho             42.8618  1.1161
     SMU               42.2441  4.0172
     Georgia St        38.5256 -1.0062
     New Mexico St     37.3179  5.0825
     E Michigan        34.9835  1.2738


Ratings include games from through 11/22/14.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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