The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings2008 Pre-season Ratings |
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Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings. Early predictions of the opening weekend's games can be found here. |
Rating HomeAd
USC 95.6884 -2.2404
West Virginia 95.5789 0.3860
LSU 95.0577 1.3482
Ohio St 93.5408 2.1863
Oklahoma 91.0269 7.2700
Missouri 89.0074 7.4668
Florida 88.4454 8.4375
Georgia 88.0154 0.0219
Oregon 87.9801 5.1587
Texas 87.5197 -3.6870
Kansas 86.5826 8.3265
Virginia Tech 85.1206 3.2964
Auburn 84.3722 0.3227
Michigan 83.5600 2.4375
BYU 83.2565 3.2553
Cincinnati 82.7974 8.2805
South Florida 82.4648 9.2695
Tennessee 82.1101 2.7174
Arizona St 81.6864 9.0053
Clemson 81.6653 4.7057
California 81.4083 1.7585
Boston College 81.0446 2.3011
Arkansas 80.2741 7.0725
Oregon St 80.2414 6.0703
South Carolina 80.2011 -0.1616
Penn St 80.1357 8.6891
Arizona 79.6308 -0.0018
Utah 79.4507 3.0286
Washington 79.2833 0.0408
Illinois 79.0447 0.9284
Boise St 79.0445 7.7029
Texas Tech 78.9426 8.1892
Alabama 78.8761 0.4367
Louisville 78.7813 1.7146
Kentucky 78.5297 3.7098
Wisconsin 78.3348 7.3994
Wake Forest 77.9972 -0.0451
Oklahoma St 77.9366 7.0213
Rutgers 77.7932 5.5370
Michigan St 77.1777 3.1368
UCLA 77.0026 7.1683
Maryland 76.2068 1.7369
Florida St 75.7602 3.7743
Connecticut 75.2568 2.8339
Purdue 75.1095 4.1445
TCU 74.8772 8.7802
Georgia Tech 74.8746 1.5680
Pittsburgh 74.6750 0.3191
Texas A&M 74.0651 9.9677
Air Force 73.7875 3.9568
Navy 73.3306 -6.0984
Vanderbilt 73.0678 1.0498
Colorado 72.9838 2.9299
Kansas St 72.8623 7.1568
Virginia 72.7036 8.0451
Washington St 72.3334 0.7750
Hawaii 72.2890 9.7609
Nebraska 72.2373 6.5772
Mississippi St 72.1624 1.6620
Troy St 72.1560 6.4529
Tulsa 70.9581 3.7210
Fresno St 70.2800 5.0098
C Florida 70.2592 6.0963
New Mexico 70.1415 1.3709
Southern Miss 68.6684 1.9815
Iowa 68.5047 6.5744
Miami Fl 68.3123 1.2091
Notre Dame 67.7396 1.9382
Houston 67.4699 2.6993
Stanford 67.3633 1.3522
Indiana 66.6249 8.1943
Mississippi 66.6180 3.9626
East Carolina 66.5697 4.1996
C Michigan 66.4588 7.2820
North Carolina 66.3557 4.4425
Ball St 66.1649 3.7481
NC State 65.9710 -0.7860
W Michigan 65.2489 -1.7523
Colorado St 64.9824 1.7219
Northwestern 64.4209 1.3977
Iowa St 63.3254 3.3172
Florida Atl 63.2541 -0.8047
Nevada 62.6626 6.2590
Minnesota 62.4600 5.5543
Wyoming 62.0675 7.6590
Middle Tenn St 60.7706 3.9677
Duke 60.7490 -4.4581
San Diego St 60.6162 1.5729
UL Monroe 60.3677 1.1691
UNLV 59.7318 2.3071
Baylor 59.2705 0.3338
Texas-El Paso 58.3998 5.1384
Memphis 57.8280 0.0492
Marshall 57.6617 9.0485
Bowling Green 57.1834 4.9758
Ohio 57.0929 6.8038
Miami Oh 56.8054 2.3905
Akron 56.3604 3.2306
E Michigan 55.8231 4.3685
Buffalo 55.6048 5.0574
Syracuse 54.7796 8.8372
Kent 54.6782 -2.1647
Rice 54.5406 3.0265
Arkansas St 54.1469 6.1526
San Jose St 54.1365 7.9255
Toledo 53.8082 10.2575
Utah St 53.7694 -1.0170
Army 53.4609 1.8588
W Kentucky 53.4147 3.7791
UL Lafayette 53.3544 1.4321
SMU 52.8364 4.9766
Tulane 52.6928 6.0478
N Illinois 52.4675 5.5401
Louisiana Tech 52.1411 5.7249
UAB 52.0992 1.8175
New Mexico St 49.3810 6.4509
Idaho 49.3806 2.1259
Temple 49.1693 2.5780
North Texas 44.9051 6.1210
Florida Intl 43.7583 4.7284
Ratings include no game results from 2008.
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Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here. |