The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2014 Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                        Rating  HomeAd
     Alabama           99.7978 -1.3566
     Oregon            95.6787  2.7630
     TCU               91.6798  5.3831
     Ohio St           91.2362  2.1107
     Baylor            91.0796  4.9952
     Georgia           90.9516  2.5161
     Mississippi       89.6077  2.3660
     Michigan St       88.6127  2.0759
     Auburn            88.5838  3.4460
     Florida St        88.1451  2.9504
     Oklahoma          87.5130  3.4821
     Stanford          86.9493  0.0798
     Mississippi St    86.9098  3.8864
     LSU               86.3058  1.2547
     USC               85.5402  0.7664
     Kansas St         85.4785  6.1135
     Georgia Tech      83.1677  1.1762
     UCLA              82.4429  5.8261
     Missouri          82.3397  2.0499
     Louisville        81.9952  0.2642
     Wisconsin         81.2752  6.6536
     Arizona St        80.6457  8.9461
     Clemson           80.6118  4.8435
     Arkansas          80.4996  7.7561
     Nebraska          80.3551  3.4342
     Florida           80.2165  3.3472
     Arizona           79.9815  2.9932
     Texas             78.6984 -1.6648
     Washington        78.6961  3.8944
     Texas A&M         78.5913  6.6514
     Utah              78.4096  1.0555
     South Carolina    78.0417  3.0769
     West Virginia     77.9282  4.0043
     Notre Dame        77.8493  3.6947
     Tennessee         75.8396  4.4675
     Duke              75.8313 -0.6062
     Miami Fl          75.4418  4.0416
     Boise St          75.4222  5.3214
     BYU               75.2171  1.6785
     Oklahoma St       74.9075  5.0405
     Minnesota         74.0394  4.9531
     Iowa              73.2000  3.2690
     Marshall          72.9149  8.0595
     Virginia Tech     72.8972  1.8880
     Memphis           72.3645  0.8961
     Boston College    72.0759  3.7586
     Utah St           72.0256  0.1930
     C Florida         71.2905  5.1471
     Cincinnati        71.0135  4.5901
     Pittsburgh        70.6213  1.9698
     Washington St     69.9163  0.7340
     Northwestern      69.8196 -0.1885
     Louisiana Tech    69.5145  8.5586
     Colorado St       69.4355  5.0743
     Oregon St         69.3076  4.6005
     Virginia          69.0008  3.0766
     Penn St           68.6798  4.9785
     East Carolina     68.6792  4.8053
     Texas Tech        68.6753  3.5753
     Michigan          68.5690  5.1532
     North Carolina    68.5431  2.7631
     Houston           68.4169  2.0458
     Navy              68.3903 -5.0318
     Maryland          68.3198  3.2740
     California        68.2203  3.6191
     NC State          67.8382  1.4195
     Kentucky          66.3559  4.4436
     W Kentucky        66.1327 -1.5531
     Nevada            65.3528  6.1688
     Temple            64.7345  1.1166
     Rutgers           64.1162  2.6503
     N Illinois        63.8562  3.9381
     Illinois          63.7820  1.7234
     Syracuse          63.7020  4.7852
     San Diego St      63.2303  4.2019
     Iowa St           63.0624  4.3677
     Toledo            62.5067  4.0039
     Fresno St         62.3292  3.4507
     Vanderbilt        62.0602 -0.8597
     Colorado          61.4592  5.5589
     Air Force         61.2547  2.4712
     Georgia So        61.1883  5.6393
     Arkansas St       60.7719  7.4202
     Indiana           60.7247  5.6651
     UL Lafayette      60.3391 -0.3284
     Rice              60.0855  7.1186
     W Michigan        59.7644  1.0043
     Purdue            59.3684  1.7151
     UAB               59.2362  2.1956
     UTSA              59.0057 -7.1857
     Ball St           58.5122  1.9231
     Appalachian St    57.6734  1.5765
     Bowling Green     57.6149  1.2413
     Kansas            57.3063  7.2610
     Wake Forest       56.5380  3.1752
     Middle Tenn St    56.1997  6.3319
     C Michigan        56.0352  3.5315
     Wyoming           55.6783  4.1193
     S Alabama         55.0663  2.7714
     Florida Atl       55.0497  2.3641
     UL Monroe         54.8010  0.1007
     Texas-El Paso     54.6266  5.7742
     South Florida     54.4770  1.1995
     San Jose St       54.4159  2.8706
     Buffalo           54.2030  4.5419
     Tulane            53.5131  2.2186
     Hawaii            53.1300  7.3096
     Texas St          53.1244  3.5759
     North Texas       52.7597  5.1469
     Old Dominion      52.6864  0.2492
     New Mexico        52.5218  4.1823
     Akron             51.7036  2.4985
     Tulsa             51.1479  2.5398
     Florida Intl      50.5232  3.1034
     Ohio              49.7237  5.7157
     Kent St           48.7881  1.0462
     Army              48.7865  4.8732
     UNLV              48.4921  5.4341
     Connecticut       48.0121  5.1994
     Miami Oh          47.5496  0.9166
     Massachusetts     46.9830  4.1945
     Southern Miss     46.7526  2.7426
     Troy              44.8859  4.3408
     SMU               43.2792  3.7473
     Idaho             43.0475  1.0546
     Georgia St        38.5536 -1.8798
     New Mexico St     37.7400  5.0906
     E Michigan        34.6656  1.2126



Ratings include games from through 12/13/14.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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