The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2017 Season Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                          Rating  HomeAd
1.    Clemson           101.5966 -2.2893
2.    Alabama            99.9220  0.1596
3.    Ohio St            94.6042  2.1247
4.    Oklahoma           94.5848  0.5076
5.    Michigan           91.8960  3.2668
6.    Oklahoma St        91.8046 -0.2189
7.    Wisconsin          90.1719  0.3524
8.    Washington         88.7808  1.7905
9.    Auburn             88.7444  3.8343
10.   Penn St            87.5402  7.4742
11.   Virginia Tech      87.2261  4.3913
12.   Mississippi St     87.1808  3.0280
13.   LSU                86.5231  2.9646
14.   USC                85.6540  5.3871
15.   Stanford           84.4874  0.2752
16.   Florida St         84.4404  6.6799
17.   Miami Fl           83.4722  2.4943
18.   Louisville         83.1749  4.3283
19.   Florida            82.5287  0.6576
20.   TCU                82.3110  0.3594
21.   Washington St      82.2413  4.4560
22.   Notre Dame         82.1226  3.5979
23.   Texas A&M          81.9044 -0.1051
24.   West Virginia      81.8865  3.1003
25.   Utah               80.7869  0.0300
26.   Kansas St          80.6419  1.3097
27.   Georgia            80.6232  3.3531
28.   Colorado           80.5475  4.9014
29.   Oregon             80.3858 -2.2936
30.   North Carolina     79.6579  0.4295
31.   Minnesota          79.5653  0.9331
32.   Tennessee          79.4758  2.5518
33.   Houston            78.5200  2.7882
34.   Texas              78.2758  2.1157
35.   UCLA               78.0919 -0.2870
36.   Boise St           77.8813 -0.2812
37.   Iowa               77.8454  3.1407
38.   San Diego St       77.8254  3.8165
39.   Georgia Tech       77.1485  4.6464
40.   Duke               77.0720  2.1200
41.   Mississippi        76.5895  3.6126
42.   Michigan St        76.2253  4.5748
43.   California         76.1945  6.3099
44.   Pittsburgh         75.2910  0.7291
45.   South Florida      75.2427  3.5498
46.   Vanderbilt         75.2255  4.3572
47.   Northwestern       75.1631  2.7728
48.   W Michigan         74.5351  0.1831
49.   NC State           74.1054  0.9563
50.   Wake Forest        74.0587  4.2156
51.   Arkansas           73.8112  0.3831
52.   Toledo             73.3870  0.9466
53.   Baylor             72.9116  1.2475
54.   Memphis            72.7041  4.2529
55.   Indiana            72.3860  1.5832
56.   W Kentucky         72.3116  2.3259
57.   Tulsa              72.1713 -1.0245
58.   Nebraska           71.3993  3.5185
59.   South Carolina     71.2845 -0.5310
60.   Purdue             71.1577 -2.2481
61.   Maryland           70.9553  2.3699
62.   Texas Tech         70.7748  3.3493
63.   Colorado St        70.7302  4.6969
64.   Kentucky           70.6791  5.5717
65.   Navy               70.6038  2.2878
66.   C Florida          69.6015  1.1257
67.   BYU                69.4857  3.2866
68.   Air Force          69.3804  6.9542
69.   Temple             69.3390  3.6465
70.   Appalachian St     68.4639 -2.5323
71.   Iowa St            68.0516 10.0150
72.   Arizona            67.8885  4.6615
73.   Louisiana Tech     67.4846  4.7508
74.   Arkansas St        66.2097  4.6240
75.   Troy               65.6542  0.9071
76.   Arizona St         65.6529  5.4774
77.   N Illinois         65.2375  3.2195
78.   UTSA               64.4297 -1.1087
79.   Boston College     64.3683 -2.1102
80.   Syracuse           63.9639  1.1668
81.   Virginia           63.3573  3.2466
82.   Southern Miss      62.6937 -0.3323
83.   Cincinnati         62.4576  4.0777
84.   Georgia So         62.3961 -0.1171
85.   Illinois           62.3742  4.7888
86.   Army               62.0292 -3.5975
87.   SMU                61.8111 -0.2204
88.   Missouri           60.7018 -0.5389
89.   UNLV               60.4620 -2.2768
90.   Ball St            60.3523 -1.7372
91.   Oregon St          60.0201  2.9988
92.   Nevada             59.8228  1.0098
93.   New Mexico         59.7441  2.0601
94.   Wyoming            59.6236  1.4300
95.   Ohio               59.2414  1.3563
96.   Tulane             59.0108  0.4637
97.   Old Dominion       58.4633  3.4078
98.   UL Lafayette       58.0311 -3.2454
99.   C Michigan         57.2805  4.2502
100.  Middle Tenn St     57.1259  4.4031
101.  Miami Oh           57.0780  2.8673
102.  S Alabama          57.0679  1.1986
103.  E Michigan         56.8438  1.2387
104.  East Carolina      56.4860  2.0121
105.  Marshall           56.1805  4.9322
106.  Rutgers            55.8648  2.4164
107.  Utah St            54.9450  2.8519
108.  Idaho              54.7089  1.6623
109.  Fresno St          54.5276  3.7830
110.  Massachusetts      53.7117 -0.4531
111.  Hawaii             53.2954  3.7139
112.  Florida Atl        53.1450 -0.2861
113.  New Mexico St      52.9846  5.9166
114.  UAB                52.9179  6.3612
115.  Bowling Green      52.4460  3.6460
116.  UL Monroe          52.3760 -1.8983
117.  Georgia St         52.1379 -4.4231
118.  Connecticut        51.5779  4.4198
119.  Akron              50.3976  1.7030
120.  North Texas        50.0398  5.9734
121.  Buffalo            49.5485  9.0463
122.  Kent St            49.2928  1.2206
123.  Kansas             48.3725  6.1537
124.  San Jose St        47.8271  5.0754
125.  Rice               46.9177  1.7870
126.  Florida Intl       46.1745  2.4967
127.  Texas St           44.5744 -0.3416
128.  Charlotte          43.6684 -1.9943
129.  Texas-El Paso      40.8648  0.4297


Ratings include games through 9/16/2017.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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