The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2016 Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  

                         Rating  HomeAd
     Alabama           105.0994  3.2549
     Ohio St           101.3927  0.9012
     Michigan           95.5335  4.3430
     Clemson            95.3568  0.0888
     Washington         92.9169  3.5214
     Oklahoma           91.2345  0.6674
     LSU                89.1491  3.7192
     Auburn             88.6603  2.6446
     Wisconsin          88.2889  2.7011
     USC                87.0148  5.5868
     Louisville         86.4514  2.7957
     Washington St      86.0662  2.9813
     Stanford           85.2197  1.8034
     Texas A&M          84.3210  0.3896
     Florida St         84.1447  6.4416
     Florida            83.8912 -0.5161
     Virginia Tech      83.2040  2.6748
     Colorado           83.1915  4.7484
     West Virginia      83.0587  3.6755
     Utah               82.8658 -1.2777
     Iowa               82.6488  1.4859
     Oklahoma St        81.8885  1.3979
     Houston            81.6209  0.9530
     TCU                81.3161  3.7647
     Penn St            81.0853  6.7996
     Miami Fl           80.8722  3.9007
     Mississippi        80.7856  3.2419
     Tennessee          80.4356  3.0802
     Arkansas           80.0820 -0.6500
     Pittsburgh         79.6301  1.3871
     W Michigan         79.5757  2.1008
     W Kentucky         79.3219  3.4724
     North Carolina     79.1010  4.5848
     BYU                78.7789  4.7417
     UCLA               78.7045 -2.1102
     Boise St           78.5982  0.2679
     Kansas St          78.5118  1.9159
     Mississippi St     78.5048  1.5734
     Notre Dame         78.2027  3.9816
     Memphis            78.1393  4.9466
     Baylor             77.9940  3.1463
     Oregon             77.9936 -2.0413
     Georgia            77.2844  3.1954
     Nebraska           76.9985  2.5667
     Northwestern       76.3937  3.1998
     Navy               75.9120  5.1473
     Michigan St        75.6542  3.4329
     NC State           75.4613  0.2368
     Georgia Tech       75.1204  5.2513
     South Florida      75.1131  4.0874
     Texas              74.6416  1.4502
     Temple             74.4716  5.3264
     Toledo             74.1689  1.8266
     San Diego St       73.9407  3.8251
     Appalachian St     73.8879 -2.9223
     Minnesota          73.8331  3.8821
     California         73.7234  5.1184
     Texas Tech         72.8531  2.5061
     Vanderbilt         72.6667  2.2843
     Tulsa              72.4008 -1.5280
     Arizona St         70.5232  5.9408
     South Carolina     70.2182 -0.1729
     Missouri           69.9664 -0.0283
     Duke               69.9413 -0.0438
     Louisiana Tech     69.6215  6.0519
     Indiana            68.8474  3.7427
     Kentucky           68.0743  6.5227
     Oregon St          67.7449  2.5736
     Colorado St        67.2335  4.6464
     Iowa St            66.9070  9.1632
     Air Force          66.8894  7.5715
     Maryland           66.7490  2.0295
     C Florida          66.3023  0.8086
     Troy               65.7148  1.5809
     Boston College     65.5397  0.4935
     Arizona            64.5338  4.4343
     Wake Forest        64.4078  5.3799
     Virginia           64.3811  4.0982
     N Illinois         64.1560  2.9881
     Syracuse           63.4477  0.8031
     Arkansas St        63.1486  6.4030
     Wyoming            63.1142 -0.3306
     Southern Miss      63.0142 -0.9027
     Georgia So         62.0519  2.9540
     Middle Tenn St     61.6008  4.6966
     Utah St            61.5166  1.7671
     New Mexico         61.2193  2.1553
     Ohio               61.1042  3.9818
     East Carolina      61.0760  2.4470
     Old Dominion       60.5153  0.0351
     Army               60.2789 -1.0286
     Purdue             60.2700 -2.7473
     UTSA               60.0948 -1.4392
     UAB                60.0909  6.7143
     Illinois           59.7404  4.2902
     C Michigan         59.6156  3.7712
     Cincinnati         59.2285  5.3041
     Georgia St         58.7338 -8.6840
     SMU                58.6171  1.2257
     Bowling Green      57.8440  2.6109
     Nevada             57.4751  1.4133
     S Alabama          57.0116  0.4337
     UL Lafayette       56.4919 -2.5766
     Ball St            56.0660 -1.1817
     Miami Oh           55.8281  3.8638
     Akron              55.5049  3.0868
     Tulane             55.3387  1.7822
     E Michigan         54.2006  1.2579
     Connecticut        53.9078  3.4773
     San Jose St        53.7584  3.7222
     Idaho              53.5954  2.9559
     UNLV               53.4574 -1.0942
     Rutgers            53.4038  2.4583
     Kent St            53.2626  1.6136
     Marshall           52.8321  4.8661
     Massachusetts      52.4148  0.4027
     Hawaii             51.8700  3.2269
     Kansas             51.6563  5.4175
     Florida Intl       50.1960  2.1382
     Fresno St          49.6760  3.0532
     Rice               48.8539  1.1303
     Florida Atl        47.8507  2.7489
     UL Monroe          47.8249 -2.0840
     North Texas        47.7520  6.1335
     New Mexico St      45.8493  3.7652
     Texas-El Paso      44.5374  3.8884
     Charlotte          44.2950  2.9697
     Buffalo            43.9642  9.2033
     Texas St           38.3051 -0.1602


Ratings include games through November 26, 2016.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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