The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2014 Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                        Rating   HomeAd
     Alabama           99.8406  -0.9918
     Florida St        93.2601   3.4128
     Mississippi       93.2160   1.7124
     Georgia           92.7164   2.2412
     Auburn            91.7417   3.4482
     Oregon            90.5008   3.0074
     Baylor            89.5988   4.9790
     TCU               89.5828   4.7738
     Oklahoma          88.8970   4.4627
     Stanford          87.7976   0.3721
     LSU               87.6481   0.9202
     Ohio St           87.4785   3.2234
     Michigan St       86.4599   2.2935
     Mississippi St    85.9996   3.5860
     USC               85.3802   0.4704
     Nebraska          85.2506   3.3040
     Kansas St         84.9160   5.5906
     Clemson           84.8463   4.3856
     Notre Dame        84.4773   3.2256
     Wisconsin         83.3884   5.8745
     Missouri          83.0179   2.1957
     Louisville        82.7755   0.5546
     Arizona St        82.2237   8.7037
     Utah              80.9778   1.8032
     UCLA              80.8081   6.0223
     Texas A&M         80.6820   7.7230
     South Carolina    80.2745   3.2190
     Arizona           79.2292   3.1839
     West Virginia     78.9931   3.6071
     Miami Fl          77.8912   3.6665
     Washington        77.6936   4.1697
     Georgia Tech      77.5517   1.1434
     Oklahoma St       77.3726   5.5277
     Duke              76.9359   0.0928
     Florida           76.9180   4.1872
     Arkansas          75.8369   6.8944
     Tennessee         75.3184   4.2300
     Texas             75.2738  -0.9105
     BYU               75.0459   1.9309
     Virginia Tech     73.9658   1.7871
     Boise St          73.5524   5.2741
     Marshall          73.4238   8.6645
     Oregon St         72.6398   4.8233
     C Florida         72.5940   4.6556
     Iowa              72.5729   2.5372
     Northwestern      72.1213   0.0040
     Utah St           71.5566  -0.0902
     Memphis           71.4101   1.1474
     East Carolina     70.7935   4.4536
     Washington St     70.3330   0.8533
     North Carolina    70.0373   3.2834
     Boston College    69.9836   4.1268
     Penn St           69.9812   5.1137
     Syracuse          69.9383   4.7600
     Houston           69.8817   2.9125
     Minnesota         69.6940   5.0048
     Iowa St           69.4917   4.2167
     Colorado St       69.1906   4.5134
     Maryland          68.7215   3.5953
     Nevada            67.5344   6.3848
     Navy              67.2744  -5.5464
     Michigan          67.2182   5.1728
     Virginia          67.1872   2.6860
     Cincinnati        67.0064   5.2157
     Kentucky          66.7834   4.5577
     Pittsburgh        66.7543   2.0554
     Texas Tech        66.5888   3.9297
     Rutgers           66.4001   2.7180
     Louisiana Tech    66.0276   7.3468
     Temple            65.5838   0.6352
     California        65.4858   4.0211
     Vanderbilt        65.3670  -1.2020
     W Kentucky        64.7450  -3.6038
     NC State          64.4939   2.0156
     Georgia So        63.3675   2.1738
     Fresno St         63.2361   4.6273
     UTSA              63.1167 -10.2760
     Illinois          63.0669   1.6293
     Arkansas St       62.8905   6.9411
     Indiana           62.4653   5.6361
     Toledo            62.4020   4.1145
     San Diego St      62.3680   3.7527
     Rice              61.8505   6.5083
     Ball St           61.3229   2.2259
     Colorado          60.5573   5.5591
     San Jose St       60.5036   2.7548
     N Illinois        59.8946   4.4714
     Purdue            59.6577   1.9084
     UL Lafayette      59.6085   0.3284
     Bowling Green     59.3153   1.4340
     Middle Tenn St    57.8580   6.6255
     Florida Atl       57.7852   2.3322
     UAB               57.2354   2.4092
     Wake Forest       56.9806   2.4882
     Air Force         56.9714   2.4345
     S Alabama         56.6329   1.6583
     South Florida     56.2578   1.6289
     C Michigan        56.0983   4.2311
     W Michigan        56.0036   0.9452
     Wyoming           55.3496   5.4423
     Tulane            54.9707   2.7874
     Kansas            54.4799   6.3422
     Akron             54.0395   2.1331
     Buffalo           53.3026   4.0815
     Hawaii            52.8883   8.0076
     North Texas       52.8644   4.7062
     Texas-El Paso     52.5207   5.3757
     Connecticut       52.1877   5.1817
     UL Monroe         51.0784   0.6239
     New Mexico        50.5497   4.0360
     Tulsa             50.5393   2.7779
     Texas St          49.9181   2.4305
     Old Dominion      49.7696  -0.8377
     Florida Intl      49.7245   3.1444
     UNLV              49.4997   6.1541
     Army              49.3768   5.0247
     Massachusetts     49.1410   2.5375
     Southern Miss     48.7938   2.9710
     Miami Oh          48.3313   1.5188
     Ohio              47.8411   5.3756
     Kent St           47.7806   1.0327
     Appalachian St    47.7555  -1.0331
     Georgia St        43.5968  -3.4142
     Troy              42.7275   4.2352
     SMU               42.3680   3.7952
     Idaho             42.0132   1.5574
     New Mexico St     38.0826   5.3703
     E Michigan        36.1052   1.4867



Ratings include games from through 10/25/14.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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