The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2017 Season Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  

                          Rating  HomeAd
1.    Alabama           105.5995  1.9054
2.    Ohio St           100.5428  0.6266
3.    Clemson            97.8826 -1.4980
4.    Washington         91.9214  3.1874
5.    Oklahoma St        91.0139  0.1886
6.    Penn St            90.9785  7.9902
7.    Oklahoma           90.6484 -0.0826
8.    Auburn             90.0898  5.0561
9.    Wisconsin          90.0492  0.7459
10.   Georgia            89.8721  2.7079
11.   Michigan           88.4357  2.4610
12.   Notre Dame         88.1291  2.4908
13.   TCU                87.9048 -0.4897
14.   Miami Fl           87.8505  1.8612
15.   Stanford           86.9211  2.4589
16.   USC                86.3330  4.9913
17.   Virginia Tech      85.6280  4.3018
18.   Florida St         83.3752  4.8860
19.   Texas A&M          82.6533  0.8518
20.   LSU                82.0267  1.6811
21.   Utah               81.1926 -0.1908
22.   NC State           80.9052  0.7638
23.   Washington St      80.7480  5.9903
24.   Georgia Tech       80.7107  6.2531
25.   Texas              80.6301  1.2438
26.   West Virginia      80.0860  3.3493
27.   C Florida          79.6254  1.8070
28.   Florida            79.4754  1.3148
29.   Iowa               79.4598  4.0210
30.   Mississippi St     79.3200  4.8565
31.   Louisville         79.1731  3.8343
32.   Boise St           79.0978 -2.4268
33.   Michigan St        78.4287  3.6752
34.   San Diego St       77.8445  1.6648
35.   South Florida      77.7602  5.5731
36.   Kansas St          77.4740  1.2655
37.   Texas Tech         76.4384  3.2246
38.   W Michigan         76.1660  2.6956
39.   Oregon             75.4189 -0.9691
40.   Northwestern       75.3654  1.4965
41.   Wake Forest        75.3561  4.5363
42.   Indiana            75.1559  2.8692
43.   South Carolina     75.1392 -2.0921
44.   UCLA               74.8370  0.5095
45.   Minnesota          74.5422  1.4580
46.   Duke               74.4789  1.2352
47.   Colorado           74.2578  3.6290
48.   Iowa St            73.8124  8.7252
49.   Purdue             73.6909 -1.7797
50.   California         73.0310  9.1699
51.   Houston            73.0185  3.3812
52.   Mississippi        72.9360  5.2258
53.   Pittsburgh         72.9011  0.7271
54.   Tennessee          72.8005 -1.4415
55.   Arkansas           72.5167 -1.3943
56.   Toledo             72.1109  0.2393
57.   North Carolina     72.0134 -0.0802
58.   Navy               71.9079  0.9141
59.   Memphis            71.5295  4.0494
60.   Virginia           71.2122  2.0373
61.   Colorado St        71.0620  3.5534
62.   Arizona            70.9804  4.6991
63.   Arizona St         70.8655  6.2319
64.   Nebraska           70.6536  2.1025
65.   Syracuse           69.7690  2.1372
66.   Baylor             69.6205  3.1395
67.   Boston College     69.1630 -1.6103
68.   Kentucky           68.7058  4.6947
69.   Appalachian St     68.3589 -1.1338
70.   Tulsa              68.0288  0.6182
71.   Vanderbilt         67.7387  2.1315
72.   Maryland           67.6305  0.0472
73.   N Illinois         66.6465  3.7076
74.   W Kentucky         66.2105  3.0178
75.   Temple             65.8267  2.1100
76.   Troy               65.6136 -1.1639
77.   Louisiana Tech     65.5853  4.6727
78.   Air Force          65.1461  7.0222
79.   SMU                64.9785  1.3359
80.   Arkansas St        64.9103  4.5380
81.   Army               64.3242 -4.5729
82.   BYU                63.5702  4.1636
83.   UTSA               63.0085 -1.0953
84.   UNLV               62.4186 -2.4638
85.   Missouri           62.2482 -0.8291
86.   Fresno St          62.1773  7.3443
87.   Wyoming            61.0518  1.2482
88.   Utah St            60.9241  2.2487
89.   Southern Miss      60.7159 -1.1031
90.   Marshall           60.1514  5.5741
91.   Ohio               59.5647  0.7381
92.   Tulane             59.5446  4.6578
93.   Oregon St          59.3389  2.9340
94.   Nevada             58.7070  1.5161
95.   E Michigan         58.6226  0.0458
96.   New Mexico         58.5082  4.3779
97.   Florida Atl        58.4726 -0.1498
98.   UL Lafayette       57.8155 -3.5084
99.   S Alabama          57.4084  0.4585
100.  Rutgers            57.3459  0.9302
101.  Georgia So         57.2970 -1.9341
102.  Cincinnati         57.1867  1.9832
103.  Illinois           57.0651  2.7722
104.  Idaho              56.9181  1.3480
105.  Akron              56.5940  3.0669
106.  Georgia St         56.1080 -5.9018
107.  Miami Oh           55.9271  1.3000
108.  Middle Tenn St     55.4042  4.9105
109.  New Mexico St      55.1896  5.8259
110.  North Texas        54.1848  5.5020
111.  C Michigan         54.0055  1.7269
112.  Massachusetts      53.0061 -1.2610
113.  UAB                52.5608  7.2030
114.  Buffalo            52.5294 10.1754
115.  East Carolina      52.2380  1.5415
116.  UL Monroe          52.1362 -2.4573
117.  Connecticut        51.8038  2.8326
118.  Bowling Green      51.0751  1.7087
119.  Ball St            50.9631 -0.0476
120.  Hawaii             50.2304  3.0812
121.  Old Dominion       49.5879  2.3732
122.  Florida Intl       48.7108  3.4674
123.  Kent St            46.9386  1.8751
124.  Kansas             44.5313  6.2386
125.  Rice               43.0682  0.7126
126.  Charlotte          42.1287 -3.5685
127.  San Jose St        41.9113  2.9802
128.  Texas-El Paso      39.9773  2.5247
129.  Texas St           38.2290  0.2765


Ratings include games through 10/14/2017.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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