The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2014 Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                        Rating  HomeAd
     Alabama           99.3713 -1.3653
     Oregon            97.6198  2.4085
     TCU               93.7364  4.8257
     Georgia           92.2169  2.3373
     Ohio St           91.5163  2.0725
     Baylor            90.4678  5.0825
     Michigan St       89.0817  2.0416
     Auburn            87.7240  3.6251
     Stanford          87.6183  0.0425
     Mississippi       86.8174  2.8978
     Florida St        86.6547  3.3312
     Mississippi St    85.5616  4.1559
     USC               85.4994  0.7857
     LSU               85.3604  1.2982
     Kansas St         84.9785  6.0921
     Oklahoma          84.5657  4.0148
     Georgia Tech      84.3426  1.0781
     Clemson           83.5458  4.2624
     Missouri          82.8927  1.9862
     UCLA              82.6154  5.8900
     Wisconsin         81.8909  6.4892
     Arkansas          81.8110  7.3585
     Louisville        81.2266  0.3818
     Arizona St        80.8725  9.0184
     Nebraska          80.5164  3.4042
     Utah              80.2539  0.7303
     Florida           80.1400  3.3201
     Arizona           79.4994  3.0898
     Washington        78.8745  3.9037
     Texas A&M         78.8532  6.5527
     Notre Dame        78.5617  3.5597
     South Carolina    78.2305  3.1128
     West Virginia     77.0567  4.0820
     Texas             76.7509 -1.3172
     Duke              75.9126 -0.6217
     Tennessee         75.5358  4.5250
     Boise St          75.5253  5.1235
     Miami Fl          75.3033  3.9893
     Oklahoma St       74.3565  5.0124
     BYU               74.3017  1.7765
     Marshall          74.2037  7.8722
     Virginia Tech     73.8198  1.7105
     Minnesota         73.6128  5.0284
     Iowa              73.1429  3.3033
     Memphis           72.6451  0.7991
     Boston College    71.8423  3.8350
     Utah St           71.7631  0.2064
     Pittsburgh        70.6709  2.0246
     C Florida         70.5465  5.2582
     Louisiana Tech    70.2953  8.4839
     Washington St     70.2319  0.7499
     Cincinnati        70.0558  4.7647
     Northwestern      69.8167 -0.1950
     Oregon St         69.6060  4.6655
     Penn St           69.0283  4.9093
     Virginia          68.8851  3.0817
     Michigan          68.8692  5.1570
     NC State          68.5999  1.2724
     East Carolina     68.5259  4.7738
     Navy              68.5007 -5.0104
     California        68.3918  3.6324
     Texas Tech        68.2821  3.4914
     Maryland          68.2572  3.3319
     Houston           68.1994  2.0312
     Colorado St       67.4695  5.3749
     North Carolina    67.3787  3.0566
     Kentucky          66.2295  4.4474
     Rutgers           65.7852  2.3839
     W Kentucky        65.6333 -1.3324
     Temple            64.5804  1.1081
     Syracuse          63.8843  4.7207
     Nevada            63.5290  6.3709
     Illinois          63.0443  1.8654
     San Diego St      62.8331  4.2407
     N Illinois        62.7734  4.0943
     Iowa St           62.5855  4.2962
     Toledo            62.3018  4.0494
     Rice              62.0411  6.8075
     Vanderbilt        61.8996 -0.9151
     Air Force         61.7175  2.2811
     UL Lafayette      61.6409 -0.5212
     Colorado          61.5472  5.6165
     Georgia So        61.4251  5.5864
     Indiana           60.9555  5.6423
     Arkansas St       60.8403  7.4136
     Fresno St         60.3799  3.7529
     Purdue            59.3959  1.7345
     UAB               59.3901  2.2538
     UTSA              59.1047 -7.2539
     W Michigan        58.9354  1.0863
     Ball St           58.3917  1.8750
     Appalachian St    57.9218  1.5021
     Bowling Green     57.6144  1.2170
     Kansas            56.8720  7.3005
     Wake Forest       56.6825  3.2626
     C Michigan        56.4620  3.4214
     Middle Tenn St    56.2570  6.3029
     Wyoming           55.4648  4.1376
     Florida Atl       55.1023  2.3491
     S Alabama         54.9717  2.8078
     UL Monroe         54.8479  0.1452
     Texas-El Paso     54.6715  5.7785
     South Florida     54.3906  1.1807
     Buffalo           54.1511  4.5467
     San Jose St       53.8393  2.7999
     Tulane            53.5267  2.2199
     Texas St          53.1371  3.6765
     Old Dominion      52.9806  0.3394
     North Texas       52.8665  5.1717
     Hawaii            52.7747  7.2954
     New Mexico        52.1983  4.1983
     Akron             51.7514  2.5235
     Tulsa             50.7639  2.5416
     Florida Intl      50.7571  3.1353
     Ohio              49.6635  5.7114
     Army              48.9442  4.9254
     Kent St           48.6799  1.0563
     UNLV              47.9610  5.4081
     Connecticut       47.8318  5.1717
     Miami Oh          47.4673  0.9241
     Massachusetts     46.9296  4.1684
     Southern Miss     46.9174  2.8450
     Troy              45.0999  4.3685
     SMU               43.1797  3.8395
     Idaho             42.9904  1.0227
     Georgia St        39.0037 -2.0421
     New Mexico St     37.7740  5.1140
     E Michigan        34.5706  1.1881



Ratings include games from through 1/1/15.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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