The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2008 Pre-season Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Early predictions of the opening weekend's games can be found here.

  

                        Rating   HomeAd 
     USC               95.6884  -2.2404
     West Virginia     95.5789   0.3860
     LSU               95.0577   1.3482
     Ohio St           93.5408   2.1863
     Oklahoma          91.0269   7.2700
     Missouri          89.0074   7.4668
     Florida           88.4454   8.4375
     Georgia           88.0154   0.0219
     Oregon            87.9801   5.1587
     Texas             87.5197  -3.6870
     Kansas            86.5826   8.3265
     Virginia Tech     85.1206   3.2964
     Auburn            84.3722   0.3227
     Michigan          83.5600   2.4375
     BYU               83.2565   3.2553
     Cincinnati        82.7974   8.2805
     South Florida     82.4648   9.2695
     Tennessee         82.1101   2.7174
     Arizona St        81.6864   9.0053
     Clemson           81.6653   4.7057
     California        81.4083   1.7585
     Boston College    81.0446   2.3011
     Arkansas          80.2741   7.0725
     Oregon St         80.2414   6.0703
     South Carolina    80.2011  -0.1616
     Penn St           80.1357   8.6891
     Arizona           79.6308  -0.0018
     Utah              79.4507   3.0286
     Washington        79.2833   0.0408
     Illinois          79.0447   0.9284
     Boise St          79.0445   7.7029
     Texas Tech        78.9426   8.1892
     Alabama           78.8761   0.4367
     Louisville        78.7813   1.7146
     Kentucky          78.5297   3.7098
     Wisconsin         78.3348   7.3994
     Wake Forest       77.9972  -0.0451
     Oklahoma St       77.9366   7.0213
     Rutgers           77.7932   5.5370
     Michigan St       77.1777   3.1368
     UCLA              77.0026   7.1683
     Maryland          76.2068   1.7369
     Florida St        75.7602   3.7743
     Connecticut       75.2568   2.8339
     Purdue            75.1095   4.1445
     TCU               74.8772   8.7802
     Georgia Tech      74.8746   1.5680
     Pittsburgh        74.6750   0.3191
     Texas A&M         74.0651   9.9677
     Air Force         73.7875   3.9568
     Navy              73.3306  -6.0984
     Vanderbilt        73.0678   1.0498
     Colorado          72.9838   2.9299
     Kansas St         72.8623   7.1568
     Virginia          72.7036   8.0451
     Washington St     72.3334   0.7750
     Hawaii            72.2890   9.7609
     Nebraska          72.2373   6.5772
     Mississippi St    72.1624   1.6620
     Troy St           72.1560   6.4529
     Tulsa             70.9581   3.7210
     Fresno St         70.2800   5.0098
     C Florida         70.2592   6.0963
     New Mexico        70.1415   1.3709
     Southern Miss     68.6684   1.9815
     Iowa              68.5047   6.5744
     Miami Fl          68.3123   1.2091
     Notre Dame        67.7396   1.9382
     Houston           67.4699   2.6993
     Stanford          67.3633   1.3522
     Indiana           66.6249   8.1943
     Mississippi       66.6180   3.9626
     East Carolina     66.5697   4.1996
     C Michigan        66.4588   7.2820
     North Carolina    66.3557   4.4425
     Ball St           66.1649   3.7481
     NC State          65.9710  -0.7860
     W Michigan        65.2489  -1.7523
     Colorado St       64.9824   1.7219
     Northwestern      64.4209   1.3977
     Iowa St           63.3254   3.3172
     Florida Atl       63.2541  -0.8047
     Nevada            62.6626   6.2590
     Minnesota         62.4600   5.5543
     Wyoming           62.0675   7.6590
     Middle Tenn St    60.7706   3.9677
     Duke              60.7490  -4.4581
     San Diego St      60.6162   1.5729
     UL Monroe         60.3677   1.1691
     UNLV              59.7318   2.3071
     Baylor            59.2705   0.3338
     Texas-El Paso     58.3998   5.1384
     Memphis           57.8280   0.0492
     Marshall          57.6617   9.0485
     Bowling Green     57.1834   4.9758
     Ohio              57.0929   6.8038
     Miami Oh          56.8054   2.3905
     Akron             56.3604   3.2306
     E Michigan        55.8231   4.3685
     Buffalo           55.6048   5.0574
     Syracuse          54.7796   8.8372
     Kent              54.6782  -2.1647
     Rice              54.5406   3.0265
     Arkansas St       54.1469   6.1526
     San Jose St       54.1365   7.9255
     Toledo            53.8082  10.2575
     Utah St           53.7694  -1.0170
     Army              53.4609   1.8588
     W Kentucky        53.4147   3.7791
     UL Lafayette      53.3544   1.4321
     SMU               52.8364   4.9766
     Tulane            52.6928   6.0478
     N Illinois        52.4675   5.5401
     Louisiana Tech    52.1411   5.7249
     UAB               52.0992   1.8175
     New Mexico St     49.3810   6.4509
     Idaho             49.3806   2.1259
     Temple            49.1693   2.5780
     North Texas       44.9051   6.1210
     Florida Intl      43.7583   4.7284


Ratings include no game results from 2008.


Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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