The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2014 Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                        Rating  HomeAd
     Alabama           98.4890 -1.9565
     Florida St        96.5138  3.2949
     Baylor            93.8055  4.9415
     Oregon            92.1944  3.0861
     Stanford          90.7891 -0.0330
     Auburn            90.7018  3.0016
     Oklahoma          90.6399  4.5785
     Texas A&M         89.6139  7.2727
     Georgia           89.1604  3.0211
     LSU               88.9266  0.1342
     Oklahoma St       88.0149  5.5195
     Mississippi       87.6831  1.3754
     USC               87.5908  0.4996
     Ohio St           85.8891  3.2117
     Wisconsin         85.7154  5.4275
     TCU               85.2023  4.1401
     Missouri          85.1475  3.2835
     UCLA              84.9186  5.9515
     Nebraska          84.5933  3.4922
     Michigan St       84.4384  2.1835
     Clemson           84.0741  4.0072
     BYU               83.8105  2.1433
     Notre Dame        82.8657  3.6506
     Mississippi St    82.3048  3.0820
     South Carolina    82.3011  3.2645
     Louisville        80.8834  0.9002
     Kansas St         80.4917  5.3150
     Texas             79.8471 -0.5182
     Florida           79.0534  4.6969
     Utah              78.6747  1.8578
     Washington        78.6615  4.4001
     Tennessee         76.9087  3.9303
     Arkansas          76.5454  6.7313
     Arizona St        76.3541  8.8086
     Georgia Tech      76.0206  1.1182
     Arizona           75.9512  3.5515
     Duke              75.8374  0.0809
     Virginia Tech     75.7571  2.1495
     Oregon St         75.7218  4.7134
     East Carolina     75.5232  4.8122
     Miami Fl          75.2334  3.8377
     West Virginia     74.3661  3.6958
     Iowa              72.8936  2.5993
     Maryland          72.5432  3.2177
     Washington St     72.5195  1.2577
     C Florida         72.2501  4.6550
     Northwestern      72.2449 -0.1593
     Texas Tech        72.0608  3.4316
     Minnesota         71.1512  5.0841
     Temple            70.6762  0.5129
     Iowa St           70.6677  4.2358
     North Carolina    70.2861  3.5406
     Marshall          70.2781  9.0762
     Houston           70.2326  2.7430
     Navy              70.1558 -5.9644
     Boise St          70.1000  4.9374
     UTSA              69.8684 -5.6668
     Utah St           69.7590  0.2400
     NC State          69.3902  1.8544
     Penn St           69.1348  4.8527
     Virginia          68.4603  2.5600
     Syracuse          68.2953  5.4177
     N Illinois        68.2136  5.6896
     W Kentucky        67.9983 -3.5974
     Cincinnati        67.8476  5.8729
     Rutgers           67.8016  2.4444
     Boston College    67.3401  4.3469
     Pittsburgh        66.8653  2.1155
     Nevada            66.8228  7.0373
     Colorado St       66.3543  4.6803
     Kentucky          66.2694  3.7402
     Michigan          66.1115  4.9502
     Memphis           66.0318  1.8364
     Indiana           65.6742  5.7896
     Ball St           65.3016  2.2192
     California        64.1030  4.1190
     San Diego St      63.7094  3.6629
     Louisiana Tech    63.6565  6.4582
     Georgia So        63.6468  0.9972
     Vanderbilt        63.2530 -1.0293
     Arkansas St       62.7198  6.9381
     North Texas       62.6360  4.3900
     Toledo            62.5767  4.3809
     Fresno St         62.4866  4.4433
     Illinois          62.2686  2.1075
     Bowling Green     61.1190  2.1050
     Rice              60.5697  6.4311
     Florida Atl       60.5273  1.8349
     Wake Forest       59.6671  2.8750
     Middle Tenn St    59.0135  6.7563
     San Jose St       59.0041  2.4765
     Buffalo           58.7237  3.7909
     Colorado          57.5231  5.3103
     South Florida     57.2425  1.6690
     Air Force         55.5996  2.1116
     Hawaii            55.1414  8.4099
     S Alabama         55.0176  3.1115
     UL Lafayette      54.7186  0.5802
     Army              54.3132  4.7811
     UL Monroe         54.0727  0.5492
     Wyoming           53.5431  5.8726
     Akron             53.4045  1.7494
     UAB               53.0047  1.8838
     Connecticut       52.9492  5.3082
     Tulane            52.4871  2.7127
     Texas St          52.3396  5.2161
     Old Dominion      52.2639  0.7480
     Purdue            52.0936  2.1855
     Texas-El Paso     51.4937  5.6456
     Tulsa             51.3431  2.8200
     Kansas            51.1296  6.3953
     Ohio              50.6686  5.3385
     W Michigan        49.7804  0.9903
     UNLV              49.4734  5.9933
     C Michigan        49.3137  4.4692
     SMU               47.3869  4.4765
     Kent St           47.1608  1.2009
     Miami Oh          47.1480  1.2211
     New Mexico        46.9061  4.3873
     Troy              45.5846  5.0355
     Florida Intl      45.5403  2.7777
     Massachusetts     42.6710  4.2995
     Southern Miss     42.4369  3.2686
     Georgia St        41.4398  1.7182
     Idaho             40.0989  1.2887
     Appalachian St    40.0091  2.6557
     New Mexico St     38.5514  4.7896
     E Michigan        34.0523  0.3292



Ratings include games from through 9/27/14.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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