The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2013 Final Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  

                         Rating  HomeAd
     Florida St        103.0722  7.3019
     Alabama           102.9266  2.0527
     Oregon             99.3094  1.0061
     Stanford           94.6045 -1.5536
     LSU                91.8690  1.5074
     Missouri           91.0490 -0.3335
     Oklahoma           90.4954  1.4637
     Wisconsin          90.1229  1.9473
     Oklahoma St        90.0581  6.7801
     Michigan St        88.8367 -4.4700
     Ohio St            88.4883  6.1567
     South Carolina     88.0799  5.7050
     Clemson            87.8084  3.4680
     Auburn             87.3850  2.5799
     Baylor             87.2630 21.0348
     USC                86.6302 -0.7501
     Kansas St          85.8557  2.5957
     Texas A&M          85.2774  7.7055
     Louisville         85.2381  0.7986
     Georgia            84.6990  7.9337
     Texas              84.6108 -1.4385
     Oregon St          84.3614 -4.8800
     UCLA               84.0830  6.6379
     Washington         83.3508 11.6996
     Notre Dame         83.2856  2.4396
     Florida            82.8482 -0.6034
     Arizona St         82.4299 14.1687
     Mississippi        81.7877  2.0889
     TCU                81.6311 -5.9443
     Iowa               81.2599 -0.7341
     Boise St           80.5891  1.6711
     Texas Tech         80.1742 -2.2074
     BYU                80.0603  6.3330
     Utah St            79.7130 -0.0062
     Georgia Tech       79.6390  3.6879
     Vanderbilt         79.1890 -0.7124
     Arizona            78.8237 11.3748
     Nebraska           78.6671 -1.1946
     C Florida          78.5121  6.5638
     Mississippi St     77.9717  7.2665
     Utah               77.1797  3.6377
     Virginia Tech      77.0970  0.7739
     Michigan           76.4240  8.4333
     North Carolina     76.1410  2.2101
     Bowling Green      75.6328  3.1849
     Houston            75.2515  1.2647
     Washington St      74.9644 -2.6531
     Penn St            74.8595  3.9390
     Fresno St          74.8193  6.4039
     Miami Fl           74.8192  6.2226
     Northwestern       73.5006  0.0854
     Pittsburgh         73.1405  4.1101
     N Illinois         73.0358  6.3775
     Tennessee          72.1082  4.0341
     Duke               72.0497  6.2389
     Navy               71.8270 -2.3478
     Cincinnati         71.4156  8.6101
     East Carolina      69.8424  9.6660
     Rutgers            69.5200 -4.0430
     Minnesota          69.4722  7.9693
     Arkansas           69.3956  1.2210
     Iowa St            68.8734  7.8145
     Toledo             68.8702  2.3092
     West Virginia      68.8213  7.4602
     Ball St            68.4326  3.1041
     Syracuse           67.6573  6.4888
     Maryland           67.5219  2.7072
     San Jose St        67.4848 -0.3050
     Marshall           67.4237 15.3396
     W Kentucky         67.2373 -3.0880
     North Texas        67.2186  8.1725
     UTSA               66.6421 -5.3392
     Buffalo            66.2299  8.5426
     Boston College     66.1661  9.6466
     San Diego St       66.1184  5.5244
     Temple             65.7232 -1.4312
     UL Lafayette       65.5598 -2.8202
     NC State           65.3846  3.2671
     Indiana            64.9422 12.5617
     Virginia           64.3615 -4.3325
     Colorado St        63.9972  9.3881
     Nevada             63.7239  5.7833
     Illinois           63.5382  5.5007
     Wake Forest        63.5216  4.4734
     SMU                63.4846  7.3469
     Arkansas St        63.4482  2.6417
     Kentucky           63.2453  3.2851
     South Florida      63.1082 -6.4617
     Rice               62.9958 11.3097
     Tulsa              62.6609 -5.5023
     Florida Atl        62.3213  2.0061
     California         61.0739  3.3776
     Kent St            60.5900  0.0629
     S Alabama          60.2828  8.8578
     Connecticut        59.7253  9.4202
     Memphis            59.5245  3.7517
     Purdue             59.0003 -4.4819
     Troy               58.9520 -1.7777
     Tulane             58.7722  7.1188
     Middle Tenn St     58.6218 10.0441
     Colorado           58.5651  8.4723
     UL Monroe          57.9355 -5.2517
     Kansas             57.6114  4.2999
     Wyoming            56.6845 -0.9098
     Akron              55.6974 -3.2512
     Air Force          55.2000 -5.0349
     Ohio               54.9544  4.4327
     Hawaii             54.5231  5.2531
     UNLV               53.8894 12.5238
     C Michigan         53.8203  4.3418
     Louisiana Tech     53.7391  4.4403
     New Mexico         52.1217  5.6099
     Army               51.9233 10.6449
     W Michigan         50.2358 -1.4848
     Texas St           49.1722  8.3413
     Texas-El Paso      48.3307  2.7079
     UAB                48.2982 -1.4906
     Southern Miss      47.7396 -8.4615
     E Michigan         42.1925 -2.6644
     Massachusetts      41.1712  4.1432
     Idaho              41.1035  5.2965
     Miami Oh           40.9188  0.6767
     Florida Intl       40.4511 -0.7079
     New Mexico St      38.2409  5.1114


Ratings include games through 1/6/14.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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