The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football RatingsFinal 2009 Ratings |
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Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings. Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here. |
Rating HomeAd
Alabama 103.6582 -7.8108
Florida 99.9825 4.3838
Texas 99.9648 1.1428
TCU 94.8142 7.3959
Virginia Tech 93.8714 2.8059
Ohio St 93.2676 0.7145
Nebraska 93.0302 -3.8609
Penn St 92.6151 -4.8371
Iowa 91.4190 -11.2108
Boise St 91.2588 2.6377
Oklahoma 90.8621 14.1691
Oregon 90.5453 3.6870
USC 89.3449 -3.0917
LSU 89.0927 -5.9406
Texas Tech 88.7391 4.9605
Georgia Tech 87.1681 3.2418
BYU 87.1304 -5.0387
Florida St 86.9443 -10.8194
Cincinnati 85.9045 1.6707
Mississippi 84.8730 7.4453
Pittsburgh 84.5585 3.4113
Clemson 83.9880 11.0421
Georgia 83.8590 -3.1500
Oklahoma St 83.4767 1.2108
North Carolina 83.3308 0.9792
Miami Fl 82.7476 9.1354
Missouri 82.7350 -3.5510
Oregon St 82.6576 2.8073
Kentucky 82.5772 -5.6790
Stanford 82.5618 3.3981
Arkansas 82.4220 4.9779
Navy 81.8699 -7.0259
Utah 81.4725 3.0788
Rutgers 81.3992 -3.8451
Connecticut 80.9296 0.2158
Tennessee 80.8079 5.4611
West Virginia 80.2799 2.3241
Michigan St 79.2097 1.0766
Notre Dame 79.1619 3.5218
Kansas 79.0575 1.8046
Wisconsin 78.7493 8.1444
Arizona 78.6981 10.2419
Air Force 78.0036 5.1326
Boston College 76.8605 9.0540
Wake Forest 76.7865 1.2306
California 76.6643 4.3438
Auburn 76.5072 12.7844
UCLA 75.7059 1.2216
South Carolina 75.4085 10.4099
Virginia 75.0864 1.3453
Northwestern 75.0015 -6.9510
East Carolina 74.4611 6.1169
C Michigan 74.3267 8.3001
Houston 74.3234 15.2065
Fresno St 74.2542 -4.7056
South Florida 74.2101 1.7499
Mississippi St 74.2002 6.9449
Duke 73.1842 -2.8868
Arizona St 72.8275 4.4562
Southern Miss 72.2169 6.6406
C Florida 72.1915 2.6815
Iowa St 72.1009 -0.4374
Minnesota 71.9196 2.1827
Baylor 71.5630 0.1814
Vanderbilt 71.3500 -5.0571
Michigan 71.3220 1.6055
Purdue 71.2504 5.8974
NC State 71.1520 0.8735
Washington 70.6693 10.9096
Texas A&M 70.2082 15.5825
Bowling Green 70.0711 -5.3983
Tulsa 69.6826 0.6673
SMU 69.5282 -0.7072
Kansas St 69.2575 12.1545
Nevada 68.9375 11.8916
Illinois 68.3496 6.7905
Temple 68.2633 6.3265
Colorado 68.0843 6.8779
Middle Tenn St 68.0569 5.4165
N Illinois 67.2196 8.3996
Buffalo 66.5281 -1.6268
Maryland 65.5907 4.8035
Louisville 65.4948 1.1492
Ohio 65.2814 4.2105
Louisiana Tech 65.2601 15.2953
Troy St 65.0637 14.2355
Wyoming 64.0619 -0.9794
Syracuse 63.8282 5.9560
Marshall 63.6388 9.5536
UAB 63.2644 8.0701
Colorado St 62.6371 4.7577
Indiana 62.2507 7.1546
UNLV 62.1967 4.3610
Hawaii 61.9708 1.1503
Utah St 61.7786 4.6483
Ball St 61.6231 -5.0018
Idaho 61.1913 4.6777
UL Monroe 60.4943 -1.8940
San Diego St 59.7236 4.8044
Kent 59.6373 1.7098
Army 59.5220 0.6390
Memphis 59.4368 -0.0988
W Michigan 58.9230 6.5107
Florida Atl 58.1693 4.1337
Toledo 56.7907 4.0145
Akron 56.3350 -2.3667
New Mexico 56.0456 2.9719
Texas-El Paso 56.0000 12.8972
Arkansas St 55.9650 6.5909
Florida Intl 55.0505 1.7683
Rice 54.3342 -1.8130
UL Lafayette 53.9307 3.5191
North Texas 52.3385 1.4926
Miami Oh 52.2914 1.2887
Washington St 51.2667 2.4160
San Jose St 50.6511 2.5534
Tulane 49.7087 -0.1260
New Mexico St 48.8626 -4.3772
W Kentucky 47.9352 -0.6983
E Michigan 47.9247 -1.9028
Ratings include all games through 1/8/2010.
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Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here. |