The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2018 Season Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  

                          Rating  HomeAd
1.    Alabama           108.3648  1.4820
2.    Clemson           105.5786 -2.3482
3.    Georgia            96.7967  3.7502
4.    Oklahoma           94.2839  1.7105
5.    Michigan           91.9966  6.5466
6.    Ohio St            91.4146  3.4607
7.    Penn St            89.8514  3.9280
8.    Notre Dame         87.5696  3.5632
9.    West Virginia      86.7798  6.3734
10.   LSU                86.6610  4.7980
11.   Iowa               86.3982  3.1273
12.   Utah               85.5348 -1.0083
13.   Texas              85.2186 -0.9026
14.   Washington         85.1275  5.2073
15.   C Florida          85.0841  1.4373
16.   Auburn             84.6237  4.7827
17.   Mississippi St     84.3556  6.3876
18.   Wisconsin          84.1600  0.5788
19.   Texas A&M          83.5419  3.8957
20.   Oklahoma St        82.9057 -0.3313
21.   Missouri           82.8385  1.3283
22.   Michigan St        82.4183 -0.4802
23.   Stanford           82.4041  3.4964
24.   Fresno St          82.0602  5.8386
25.   Florida            81.7331  1.0276
26.   Washington St      81.5144  6.6753
27.   South Carolina     81.3436 -1.7766
28.   Boise St           81.2531 -1.0525
29.   Iowa St            81.1053  7.1782
30.   Duke               80.5224 -1.8334
31.   Boston College     80.3117  0.8996
32.   Texas Tech         80.1466  0.9297
33.   Purdue             80.0856  1.8480
34.   NC State           79.9552  2.4251
35.   Miami Fl           79.4966  4.2727
36.   Northwestern       79.2258  1.1819
37.   Army               78.6846 -5.8994
38.   Syracuse           78.6243  2.1210
39.   TCU                78.6068  1.6154
40.   Georgia Tech       78.3632  5.1045
41.   Kentucky           77.9816  5.2179
42.   Utah St            77.6075  3.4065
43.   Appalachian St     77.5395  0.3436
44.   Temple             77.0808  0.6717
45.   Vanderbilt         76.2605  0.1047
46.   Pittsburgh         76.2463  1.9465
47.   USC                75.7441  4.3455
48.   Arizona St         75.4549  6.2961
49.   Maryland           75.3325 -1.0602
50.   Oregon             74.9181  4.0849
51.   Virginia Tech      74.3411  3.8690
52.   Cincinnati         74.2995  3.9067
53.   Kansas St          74.2907  1.9239
54.   Mississippi        74.1697  2.2504
55.   Tennessee          73.4726 -0.0645
56.   Virginia           73.3699  3.3760
57.   California         72.7437  2.9069
58.   Wake Forest        72.2785 -0.1162
59.   Ohio               72.1944  4.7064
60.   Indiana            72.0056  3.6474
61.   Houston            71.9764  5.6071
62.   Colorado           71.7506  2.8308
63.   Nebraska           71.7433  0.9103
64.   Florida St         71.4248  3.7588
65.   San Diego St       71.4148 -1.3509
66.   Memphis            71.3646  7.2100
67.   UCLA               70.7799 -0.2539
68.   Baylor             70.2720  3.6005
69.   Troy               69.8470 -1.8496
70.   Arizona            69.2153  7.2706
71.   BYU                69.1964  1.4026
72.   Arkansas           69.0553 -0.0023
73.   Minnesota          68.7163  9.4588
74.   Toledo             67.8532  2.4853
75.   E Michigan         67.0319  1.4511
76.   South Florida      66.9730  2.1845
77.   Florida Atl        66.7583  2.6488
78.   Buffalo            66.7431  6.7390
79.   N Illinois         66.7105  6.8549
80.   North Texas        66.6585  6.9246
81.   Air Force          66.5450  5.2172
82.   Tulane             65.9789  3.3419
83.   Marshall           65.9255  2.7245
84.   North Carolina     65.7353  3.4929
85.   Wyoming            64.7427  1.0635
86.   Arkansas St        64.5077  3.3679
87.   UAB                64.4109  9.5394
88.   Louisville         64.2481  2.8654
89.   Louisiana Tech     64.1875 -2.4330
90.   Nevada             64.0355  5.3367
91.   SMU                63.9278  2.4151
92.   W Michigan         63.3551 -1.2549
93.   Middle Tenn St     63.2133  4.1244
94.   Florida Intl       63.0466  2.2467
95.   Miami Oh           62.7635  1.8785
96.   Navy               62.5942  3.7384
97.   Tulsa              62.5756 -0.2190
98.   Southern Miss      61.9393 -0.7258
99.   Kansas             61.7225  5.4758
100.  Georgia So         60.2633  8.6833
101.  Illinois           59.3371  0.9891
102.  UL Lafayette       59.3047  0.2531
103.  UNLV               57.7036 -5.7709
104.  C Michigan         57.2287 -3.2982
105.  Akron              56.9968  2.7438
106.  Oregon St          56.6212  1.6407
107.  New Mexico         56.5496  2.4280
108.  UL Monroe          55.9466  1.2168
109.  Colorado St        55.6478  5.1333
110.  Hawaii             55.3387  2.9970
111.  East Carolina      54.5441  5.4246
112.  Georgia St         54.4622 -4.7088
113.  Massachusetts      53.5759  1.1927
114.  C Carolina         53.5205  0.7518
115.  Liberty            53.3665  7.9002
116.  Rutgers            52.9416  3.7564
117.  W Kentucky         52.0648  3.9243
118.  Bowling Green      51.9168 -1.4665
119.  Old Dominion       51.3514  3.0915
120.  Charlotte          50.7538  2.4253
121.  Ball St            50.6829 -0.6129
122.  Idaho              50.3588  3.1246
123.  UTSA               49.6504 -2.5493
124.  San Jose St        49.0430  2.7524
125.  Kent St            46.9369  4.1040
126.  Connecticut        46.7161  2.1519
127.  S Alabama          46.6311  2.4352
128.  New Mexico St      46.3515  3.8001
129.  Texas St           43.8975  2.7892
130.  Rice               42.6229 -1.1296
131.  Texas-El Paso      42.4614  3.3345


2018 Ratings (including games through Nov 10).



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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