The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2017 Season Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  

                          Rating  HomeAd
1.    Alabama           102.8915  2.6356
2.    Clemson            98.2312 -1.0972
3.    Ohio St            97.6670  2.8688
4.    Georgia            94.7069  2.0637
5.    Penn St            93.9521  5.3943
6.    Wisconsin          93.3826  1.5000
7.    Oklahoma           92.9611  0.7193
8.    Washington         90.6537  4.3441
9.    Auburn             89.3459  7.1471
10.   Oklahoma St        88.7487 -0.6861
11.   TCU                86.7380  1.4951
12.   Notre Dame         86.1465  5.3932
13.   Virginia Tech      85.0236  6.8313
14.   LSU                85.0034  2.9031
15.   Michigan           84.3555  3.4889
16.   Stanford           83.5676  4.1929
17.   USC                83.3431  4.0535
18.   Miami Fl           83.0981  4.6253
19.   Iowa               82.7407  3.9904
20.   Louisville         82.6836  4.6388
21.   Mississippi St     82.4414  3.2982
22.   C Florida          82.3893  1.3049
23.   Texas              82.2667 -1.4429
24.   NC State           81.1953  1.4351
25.   Texas A&M          80.2474  1.7967
26.   Utah               79.9715 -0.8332
27.   Northwestern       79.8002  4.0404
28.   Florida St         79.5535  4.7381
29.   Michigan St        79.2997  3.5297
30.   Kansas St          78.5735  1.0191
31.   Boise St           78.5107 -1.8024
32.   Wake Forest        78.2615  3.6386
33.   Iowa St            78.0323  8.2502
34.   South Carolina     77.7796 -2.4270
35.   Boston College     77.6094 -1.0925
36.   West Virginia      76.8446  3.4063
37.   Washington St      76.7763  7.9208
38.   Memphis            76.7605  4.6970
39.   Georgia Tech       76.0818  6.3219
40.   South Florida      75.9794  4.5083
41.   Purdue             75.7647 -1.9145
42.   Pittsburgh         75.4995  0.9013
43.   Duke               75.2480  1.1760
44.   Oregon             74.9733  3.0298
45.   San Diego St       74.8245 -0.1142
46.   Texas Tech         74.6623  0.6508
47.   Missouri           73.8432  1.3417
48.   Navy               73.4293  1.9572
49.   Mississippi        73.1346  3.3718
50.   UCLA               72.9528  2.0697
51.   Indiana            72.8448  4.1250
52.   Florida            72.7976  3.2134
53.   Houston            72.1585  4.0393
54.   Appalachian St     71.9682  0.6781
55.   Arkansas           71.7139 -1.4484
56.   Arizona St         71.3996  4.5224
57.   California         71.3708  7.2687
58.   Arizona            70.7794  5.5658
59.   Minnesota          70.6221  3.2770
60.   Colorado           69.9255  4.9828
61.   W Michigan         69.7780  1.6267
62.   Army               69.6799 -4.2793
63.   Toledo             69.5869  3.6843
64.   Troy               69.4265 -1.3089
65.   North Carolina     69.3246  1.7550
66.   Temple             69.1978  1.2157
67.   Nebraska           69.1723  1.2994
68.   Kentucky           69.1097  3.5058
69.   Syracuse           68.8548  1.2802
70.   Baylor             68.3847  1.9471
71.   Tennessee          68.0702  0.5803
72.   Florida Atl        68.0374  2.7234
73.   Colorado St        67.8540  4.4520
74.   Fresno St          67.4699  4.8074
75.   Vanderbilt         67.3483 -0.2136
76.   Ohio               66.5824  4.1025
77.   Virginia           66.2915  2.8311
78.   N Illinois         65.8717  5.2057
79.   Wyoming            65.5690  1.5337
80.   Louisiana Tech     65.3624  0.9976
81.   Maryland           65.2030 -0.7151
82.   Tulsa              64.6141 -1.0212
83.   Arkansas St        64.5602  5.5033
84.   Utah St            63.5363  2.3485
85.   SMU                62.8399  2.8278
86.   Marshall           62.8120  2.4474
87.   Air Force          62.7095  4.0098
88.   BYU                61.8394  3.6777
89.   Southern Miss      61.5195 -1.3722
90.   Tulane             61.5013  4.3605
91.   UNLV               61.2500 -4.1344
92.   E Michigan         61.2319  1.5085
93.   C Michigan         60.6138  1.8385
94.   UTSA               59.9575 -0.9180
95.   Nevada             59.3227  3.5501
96.   Massachusetts      59.2685  0.9953
97.   W Kentucky         58.9284  3.9685
98.   Middle Tenn St     58.2050  4.4196
99.   Illinois           57.7483  1.3869
100.  Miami Oh           57.5900  1.7624
101.  Rutgers            57.2981  2.1504
102.  Georgia St         56.4661 -7.0281
103.  Cincinnati         55.9309  2.8798
104.  Georgia So         55.1698  4.0941
105.  Idaho              55.0601  2.3914
106.  North Texas        54.9595  6.6719
107.  UL Monroe          54.6413 -1.3210
108.  New Mexico St      54.5309  4.9505
109.  Oregon St          54.0020  5.3078
110.  Bowling Green      53.8199 -0.4246
111.  Buffalo            53.6478 10.2825
112.  Connecticut        53.6071  2.3211
113.  East Carolina      53.2899  4.5044
114.  Florida Intl       53.2212  5.3975
115.  Akron              52.7637  4.2744
116.  UAB                52.5356  8.2820
117.  New Mexico         52.5096  5.3188
118.  UL Lafayette       52.4933 -1.3168
119.  S Alabama          51.7622  2.7534
120.  Old Dominion       51.3656  1.4403
121.  Hawaii             49.1116  3.1833
122.  Kansas             48.3216  5.1008
123.  Kent St            44.4266  0.6841
124.  Rice               42.7222  1.1865
125.  Charlotte          42.3407 -0.5066
126.  Ball St            41.8648 -2.2176
127.  San Jose St        40.9978  4.4094
128.  Texas St           39.7135  1.9209
129.  Texas-El Paso      38.6154  2.9802


Ratings include games through 1/1/2018.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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