The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2016 Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                        Rating  HomeAd
     Alabama           99.1973  3.1091
     Oklahoma          94.3227  0.6577
     Ohio St           93.7506 -0.4144
     Clemson           92.2337  0.2029
     Stanford          90.7289  3.0147
     Mississippi       89.2874  3.1920
     Baylor            88.8023  4.1517
     Oregon            87.5441 -1.3771
     Arkansas          87.4564 -1.1342
     TCU               86.7963  5.4165
     LSU               85.2846  4.0161
     Mississippi St    85.0321  2.9392
     Michigan          85.0229  3.3720
     Tennessee         84.9429  3.8069
     USC               84.8823  4.7737
     Washington        84.5768  3.9055
     Florida St        84.5048  6.1944
     UCLA              84.1697 -1.6391
     Michigan St       84.1373  3.5504
     Utah              84.0629 -1.1065
     Notre Dame        83.9027  4.9960
     Georgia           83.2610  3.5697
     Wisconsin         82.8963  3.1286
     Florida           82.5281 -1.5414
     Texas A&M         82.1883  1.1130
     Auburn            82.0828  1.6478
     North Carolina    81.9904  6.3666
     Iowa              81.8088  0.1537
     Houston           81.4664  0.7121
     West Virginia     81.3732  4.1024
     Oklahoma St       81.0208  2.1096
     Boise St          80.8010  1.1769
     Louisville        79.5798  1.5712
     Nebraska          78.7562  1.7581
     Arizona St        77.8479  5.3468
     California        77.7281  4.4895
     Washington St     77.4319  1.4831
     Pittsburgh        76.9479  1.2301
     Virginia Tech     76.8809  0.5923
     BYU               76.6822  5.1235
     Navy              76.2404  5.6565
     Georgia Tech      76.0877  5.4467
     NC State          76.0242  0.1371
     Memphis           75.7155  5.0028
     W Kentucky        75.6522  3.7889
     Texas Tech        75.2823  2.1287
     South Carolina    74.5607 -0.0798
     Kansas St         74.4889  1.9653
     Missouri          74.3081 -0.6426
     Toledo            74.2627  2.3277
     Duke              74.1830  0.5060
     San Diego St      74.1104  3.4192
     Texas             73.6723  1.1065
     Bowling Green     73.2981  3.2737
     Miami Fl          73.1966  4.0769
     Arizona           72.9956  4.2651
     Temple            72.1700  5.7323
     Penn St           72.0658  5.6141
     Northwestern      72.0207  3.7118
     Appalachian St    71.9483 -2.2301
     South Florida     71.1329  4.2129
     Marshall          70.5991  6.3424
     East Carolina     70.1305  2.4724
     Boston College    69.6613  1.0299
     Southern Miss     69.5612 -0.7582
     Utah St           69.5019  2.5313
     Minnesota         69.3368  4.4047
     Virginia          69.3006  4.2013
     W Michigan        69.2958  2.3887
     Indiana           68.7118  4.4413
     Georgia So        68.6314  4.4527
     Air Force         68.2139  7.0172
     Cincinnati        68.1728  6.7619
     Syracuse          68.1358  0.9716
     Louisiana Tech    67.6888  5.1385
     Maryland          67.4892  1.4173
     Vanderbilt        66.5611  0.6156
     N Illinois        65.7867  2.5509
     Kentucky          65.6147  7.1080
     Illinois          65.6064  5.6473
     Iowa St           65.5138  7.6164
     Colorado          65.2613  3.2473
     Middle Tenn St    64.3287  5.1769
     C Michigan        63.8874  4.7116
     Purdue            63.2350 -2.3758
     Tulsa             63.2195 -2.0497
     Nevada            62.4137  1.5108
     Arkansas St       62.2996  6.6685
     Rutgers           62.2856  3.3023
     Colorado St       62.1388  4.9582
     Connecticut       61.7641  3.7976
     Wake Forest       61.5747  5.8391
     Oregon St         60.9557  0.9254
     San Jose St       60.5002  3.5356
     Ohio              60.3795  5.4398
     UAB               59.9309  6.4772
     Georgia St        58.6085 -8.7633
     New Mexico        58.1884  1.3207
     Akron             58.0017  3.7401
     Troy              56.0901  1.3852
     Ball St           55.0537 -0.8401
     Army              54.9040  0.2967
     Fresno St         54.8232  2.3170
     UNLV              54.7801 -0.7092
     Wyoming           54.3104 -2.9601
     UTSA              54.0251 -2.4665
     UL Lafayette      53.9072 -2.3209
     Florida Intl      53.8629  2.9308
     Buffalo           53.7307  9.2650
     Massachusetts     53.6779  0.2661
     S Alabama         53.1961 -0.5639
     Florida Atl       53.1875  4.1013
     SMU               52.3165  1.4466
     Rice              52.2657  1.3970
     C Florida         51.8640 -0.2191
     Tulane            49.5605  1.7608
     Old Dominion      49.4422 -1.7758
     Texas St          49.3641  1.5821
     Idaho             49.0490  2.5741
     Kansas            48.3379  4.1761
     Texas-El Paso     47.6166  4.8922
     Hawaii            46.9315  2.7601
     Kent St           46.9296  1.6557
     UL Monroe         46.7822 -2.6594
     Miami Oh          46.1463  3.1026
     North Texas       45.6604  5.8718
     E Michigan        43.6053  0.7756
     New Mexico St     43.3111  1.8072
     Charlotte         37.5232  3.6998


Ratings don't include any 2016 season games.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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