The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2015 Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                        Rating  HomeAd
     Alabama           99.1836  3.2560
     Oklahoma          94.2443  0.8127
     Ohio St           93.6472 -0.3879
     Clemson           92.3046  0.2956
     Stanford          90.6261  2.9490
     Mississippi       89.0722  3.2533
     Baylor            88.8045  4.2683
     Oregon            87.6671 -1.3929
     Arkansas          87.3731 -0.9764
     TCU               86.7017  5.6372
     LSU               85.2908  4.0697
     Tennessee         85.1896  3.5758
     Michigan          85.0248  3.4243
     USC               84.9911  4.6729
     Mississippi St    84.9849  2.7776
     Florida St        84.5606  6.1112
     Washington        84.5534  3.8513
     Michigan St       84.2200  3.4091
     UCLA              84.0926 -1.8679
     Utah              84.0614 -1.0366
     Notre Dame        83.8644  5.1484
     Georgia           83.1716  3.5587
     Wisconsin         83.1247  2.8972
     Florida           82.4812 -1.4352
     Texas A&M         82.0615  1.1383
     Auburn            81.9567  1.8228
     North Carolina    81.9362  6.4767
     Iowa              81.9124  0.0803
     West Virginia     81.4730  3.9742
     Houston           81.3436  0.7532
     Oklahoma St       81.0136  2.0427
     Boise St          80.8672  1.0968
     Louisville        79.6735  1.4115
     Nebraska          78.5770  1.9248
     California        77.6665  4.4897
     Arizona St        77.6274  5.7270
     Washington St     77.3080  1.4125
     Virginia Tech     77.0623  0.4526
     Pittsburgh        76.9717  1.0325
     BYU               76.5184  4.9838
     Navy              76.4017  5.6203
     NC State          76.0568  0.0575
     Georgia Tech      76.0302  5.4156
     Memphis           75.6589  5.0813
     W Kentucky        75.6535  3.7585
     Texas Tech        75.2063  2.0373
     South Carolina    74.6856 -0.2733
     Kansas St         74.6197  1.8285
     Missouri          74.4526 -0.7813
     Duke              74.0852  0.8197
     San Diego St      74.0684  3.4291
     Toledo            74.0593  2.6666
     Texas             73.6528  1.1457
     Miami Fl          73.3662  4.0325
     Bowling Green     73.2537  3.4849
     Arizona           73.0952  4.2966
     Penn St           72.1650  5.5139
     Temple            72.0993  5.7739
     Northwestern      72.0134  3.7300
     Appalachian St    71.8796 -2.3398
     South Florida     71.1985  4.2010
     Marshall          70.6728  6.3917
     East Carolina     69.8561  2.9040
     Southern Miss     69.7554 -0.9939
     Boston College    69.7052  1.0751
     Utah St           69.5700  2.3944
     W Michigan        69.4168  2.3636
     Minnesota         69.2984  4.7053
     Virginia          69.2421  4.2703
     Indiana           68.6557  4.4912
     Georgia So        68.4528  4.8860
     Cincinnati        68.3900  6.3795
     Air Force         68.2334  6.9751
     Syracuse          68.1509  0.8363
     Louisiana Tech    67.7392  5.2722
     Maryland          67.3933  1.6427
     Vanderbilt        66.4776  0.6449
     N Illinois        65.8375  2.6140
     Illinois          65.6381  5.5559
     Iowa St           65.5380  7.5273
     Kentucky          65.4238  7.2593
     Colorado          65.3445  3.3875
     Middle Tenn St    64.2922  5.1701
     C Michigan        63.8034  4.7442
     Purdue            63.2120 -2.3825
     Tulsa             63.1384 -2.0497
     Nevada            62.5259  1.4619
     Rutgers           62.2869  3.3439
     Arkansas St       62.2744  6.7406
     Colorado St       62.1021  5.1761
     Wake Forest       61.7564  5.7441
     Connecticut       61.6848  3.8111
     Oregon St         61.0107  0.7406
     San Jose St       60.4095  3.5074
     Ohio              60.2890  5.4470
     UAB               60.1932  6.4186
     Georgia St        58.5776 -8.7709
     New Mexico        58.3840  1.0844
     Akron             58.1369  3.5516
     Troy              56.1445  1.2769
     Ball St           55.0101 -0.6786
     Army              54.8761  0.4107
     Fresno St         54.8603  2.2975
     UNLV              54.6959 -0.7345
     Wyoming           54.1465 -2.8752
     UTSA              53.9055 -2.4212
     Florida Intl      53.8471  3.0441
     UL Lafayette      53.7661 -2.1549
     Buffalo           53.7352  9.2439
     Massachusetts     53.6449  0.5370
     Florida Atl       53.2925  4.1278
     S Alabama         53.1281 -0.6222
     SMU               52.4004  1.2995
     Rice              52.2471  1.4404
     C Florida         51.8597 -0.1788
     Old Dominion      49.5678 -2.0600
     Tulane            49.5379  1.8455
     Texas St          49.3148  1.6303
     Idaho             49.0133  2.6954
     Kansas            48.3401  4.1906
     Texas-El Paso     47.5761  4.8363
     Kent St           47.0651  1.2899
     Hawaii            46.8570  2.8858
     UL Monroe         46.7300 -2.7437
     Miami Oh          46.0808  3.1940
     North Texas       45.6928  5.6113
     E Michigan        43.7364  0.6886
     New Mexico St     43.2773  1.8234
     Charlotte         37.4820  3.8545



Ratings include games through Jan 2, 2016.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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