The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2014 Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  

                         Rating  HomeAd
     Florida St        104.5933  3.1730
     Alabama           103.9369 -2.1470
     Oregon             97.7935  2.9150
     Baylor             94.3229  4.9999
     Stanford           93.6120  0.0946
     LSU                91.4900  0.2583
     Oklahoma St        90.1273  5.6315
     South Carolina     89.3167  3.3987
     Ohio St            88.9792  3.2860
     Missouri           88.4259  3.6190
     Oklahoma           88.4220  4.5272
     Clemson            88.2356  4.0815
     Wisconsin          87.9500  5.2740
     Auburn             87.2668  2.8003
     USC                86.9430 -0.1688
     Washington         86.9201  4.3628
     Georgia            86.6751  2.5468
     Michigan St        86.4625  1.9807
     Texas A&M          85.7786  7.8232
     Kansas St          85.3552  5.3280
     UCLA               85.0970  6.6028
     Arizona St         84.8825  9.4897
     Louisville         84.6980  0.6273
     Texas              82.9850 -0.1467
     Notre Dame         82.6147  3.0530
     Arizona            81.9587  3.4557
     Mississippi        81.4989  1.4717
     Oregon St          81.4593  4.3112
     BYU                81.3148  2.9087
     Florida            80.4672  4.6012
     Mississippi St     80.1314  3.6669
     Utah St            79.9659 -0.2526
     Georgia Tech       79.6059  1.3991
     Iowa               79.2515  2.7816
     C Florida          79.2426  4.3710
     Vanderbilt         79.0698 -0.2760
     Texas Tech         78.2221  3.6451
     Michigan           77.9444  4.9340
     TCU                77.8046  4.2904
     Utah               77.6616  2.0404
     Boise St           77.3557  4.2616
     Nebraska           76.3577  3.3432
     Virginia Tech      75.7873  2.9628
     North Carolina     75.7852  3.4022
     Miami Fl           75.5757  3.3176
     Fresno St          75.4281  4.4550
     Duke               75.3628 -0.6562
     Bowling Green      75.1826  1.4363
     Houston            74.4206  3.1167
     Washington St      73.9802  0.9018
     Northwestern       73.6618  0.7342
     N Illinois         73.6155  5.4914
     Pittsburgh         72.9154  2.6918
     Penn St            72.8632  5.2905
     Cincinnati         72.1429  6.0906
     Navy               71.8953 -5.6571
     Tennessee          71.8801  3.7387
     East Carolina      70.5032  4.6218
     North Texas        69.9399  4.2583
     West Virginia      69.9041  3.8525
     Minnesota          69.7068  5.1429
     Iowa St            69.5816  4.2787
     Marshall           69.0688  9.0419
     Ball St            68.5249  2.1663
     Toledo             67.9713  4.2646
     Boston College     67.9273  4.3617
     Indiana            67.6302  6.4284
     Syracuse           67.5380  6.0016
     W Kentucky         67.5163 -4.4353
     UTSA               67.0541 -6.2730
     Buffalo            66.9226  4.0578
     Arkansas           66.5259  6.6990
     San Diego St       66.4924  3.6902
     San Jose St        66.3349  2.5381
     Maryland           66.1733  3.6080
     Rutgers            65.6258  2.2784
     Colorado St        65.5763  4.7448
     NC State           65.3362  2.1140
     Illinois           65.3266  1.7793
     Rice               64.8966  6.7497
     UL Lafayette       64.7777  0.9157
     SMU                64.5286  4.9433
     Wake Forest        63.8730  2.8571
     Temple             63.8215  1.1344
     Florida Atl        63.4462  0.6669
     Arkansas St        62.9948  6.8007
     Kentucky           62.6995  3.7514
     Nevada             62.3186  6.9714
     California         60.8746  4.6630
     Colorado           60.6381  5.1423
     Kent St            60.5458  0.9882
     Memphis            60.5180  1.9174
     Middle Tenn St     60.3027  6.4782
     Connecticut        60.2294  5.4840
     Virginia           60.0393  2.3460
     Tulane             60.0260  2.2605
     South Florida      59.5907  2.2617
     Tulsa              59.5224  2.7826
     S Alabama          59.4517  7.4912
     UNLV               57.6492  5.7555
     UL Monroe          57.2119  0.5950
     Troy               56.8844  4.2657
     Kansas             56.7413  6.0309
     Purdue             55.6817  2.6626
     Ohio               54.6029  5.3291
     Wyoming            54.3416  5.8890
     Army               53.5830  4.8088
     Hawaii             53.1293  8.0604
     Louisiana Tech     53.0707  7.0915
     New Mexico         52.7779  4.5741
     Akron              52.5126  2.4307
     C Michigan         52.2017  5.3292
     Texas St           51.7003  5.6381
     Air Force          51.5601  1.5715
     W Michigan         50.0598  1.1487
     UAB                47.0666  2.0182
     Texas-El Paso      46.2250  5.5481
     Southern Miss      43.5320  3.5605
     Idaho              42.4660  1.8834
     E Michigan         40.8025  0.1632
     Massachusetts      40.4818  3.4162
     Miami Oh           40.2505  1.4402
     Florida Intl       39.5847  3.2335
     New Mexico St      38.6326  4.7815


Ratings don't include any games from 2014 (yet).



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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