The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2024 Season Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                         Rating  HomeAd
1.    Ohio St           99.7053  3.9792
2.    Texas             97.8716  2.6381
3.    Georgia           97.4310  1.6505
4.    Oregon            97.3872  2.8532
5.    Alabama           96.2035  4.8574
6.    Penn St           94.3459  1.3554
7.    Mississippi       94.1749  1.3310
8.    Notre Dame        93.3735  2.3073
9.    Tennessee         91.5036  2.8205
10.   LSU               89.4415  5.3472
11.   Miami Fl          89.0803  2.2920
12.   South Carolina    87.4089  1.3725
13.   Indiana           86.5974  2.8932
14.   Iowa St           85.7900  4.1039
15.   USC               85.4750  3.6416
16.   Texas A&M         84.9844  4.2038
17.   Clemson           84.8024 -0.3229
18.   Michigan          84.4870  0.5813
19.   Kansas St         84.4153  4.1854
20.   Iowa              84.2594  3.1306
21.   SMU               83.6099  3.4918
22.   Boise St          81.9934  3.1623
23.   BYU               81.7557  3.2876
24.   Louisville        81.5689  6.2402
25.   Washington        81.1392  3.4165
26.   Florida           80.8488  3.4057
27.   Oklahoma          80.6788  4.4472
28.   Wisconsin         80.5860  0.1368
29.   Tulane            78.8828  2.3435
30.   UNLV              78.8052 -1.0903
31.   Minnesota         78.7784  3.5714
32.   C Florida         78.2456  2.6014
33.   Colorado          78.1878  3.4579
34.   California        78.0101  4.2381
35.   Washington St     77.9097  0.8869
36.   Missouri          77.8968  4.9022
37.   Kentucky          77.8650  3.4228
38.   Arkansas          77.7202 -1.6395
39.   Virginia Tech     77.6420  3.6761
40.   North Carolina    77.5270  2.8480
41.   Kansas            77.5193  2.7097
42.   Cincinnati        77.3295  3.8651
43.   Texas Tech        76.8986  2.6462
44.   James Madison     76.6482  5.6002
45.   Auburn            76.5139  1.5195
46.   Illinois          76.4459  0.3886
47.   West Virginia     76.3551  2.0935
48.   Vanderbilt        76.0160  0.0199
49.   TCU               75.8980  3.8389
50.   Duke              75.6977  2.5814
51.   Baylor            75.6867  1.1666
52.   Maryland          75.6452  1.7692
53.   Georgia Tech      75.4709  0.6042
54.   Arizona St        75.3890  1.5473
55.   Pittsburgh        75.0956  2.6520
56.   UCLA              75.0945 -0.2946
57.   Nebraska          74.8340  2.8096
58.   Utah              73.9928  3.5703
59.   Army              73.6045  1.5883
60.   Florida St        71.9690  2.8644
61.   Oklahoma St       71.5314  2.5786
62.   S Alabama         71.3404  1.5087
63.   Oregon St         71.2440  3.9575
64.   Rutgers           70.7118  1.9320
65.   Memphis           70.2376  4.1061
66.   Syracuse          70.1262  2.8471
67.   Northwestern      69.9872  3.0947
68.   Boston College    69.9287  1.2340
69.   Michigan St       69.5401  1.5004
70.   Texas St          68.9097  2.7979
71.   NC State          68.7416  4.6882
72.   Navy              68.6905  2.1799
73.   Houston           68.5648  2.1594
74.   UL Lafayette      68.5091  1.6671
75.   Arizona           68.4738  3.3743
76.   Virginia          68.2517  0.7724
77.   Mississippi St    68.2508  1.4226
78.   Fresno St         67.6336  4.3933
79.   W Kentucky        67.2698  0.7391
80.   Bowling Green     66.5764 -0.4062
81.   San Jose St       65.9445  1.9617
82.   Old Dominion      65.8884  1.5923
83.   Miami Oh          65.8542  4.1940
84.   Marshall          65.7786  2.0664
85.   Wake Forest       65.6535  1.0867
86.   Jacksonville St   65.3047  5.1542
87.   Toledo            65.0207  2.0700
88.   North Texas       64.9840  3.8998
89.   Troy              64.5686  0.8357
90.   N Illinois        63.9858  0.4945
91.   C Carolina        63.7951 -0.2470
92.   Liberty           63.5526  1.3042
93.   Georgia So        63.5357  8.4298
94.   Ohio              62.9508  3.6507
95.   Sam Houston St    62.6799 -0.7661
96.   Appalachian St    61.7412  2.7664
97.   Colorado St       61.4772  2.5791
98.   Georgia St        61.3659 -3.8182
99.   Purdue            60.8200 -0.2246
100.  Connecticut       60.0979  5.1274
101.  UTSA              59.8059  1.9219
102.  Stanford          59.7725  1.3100
103.  South Florida     59.7676  2.9354
104.  San Diego St      58.3677  1.6418
105.  Rice              58.1739  1.7508
106.  East Carolina     58.0222  3.7990
107.  UL Monroe         57.9180  2.8956
108.  Wyoming           57.2163  2.3023
109.  W Michigan        56.9604  0.8603
110.  Arkansas St       56.8265  3.5155
111.  Nevada            56.7144  3.2992
112.  Charlotte         56.5814 -1.8733
113.  Hawaii            56.0835  4.1535
114.  E Michigan        55.8933 -0.0915
115.  Utah St           55.7809  0.6355
116.  Florida Atl       54.4672  1.9697
117.  New Mexico        53.9488  2.3171
118.  Air Force         53.9143  4.4489
119.  Louisiana Tech    53.7214  2.3296
120.  Florida Intl      53.4912  3.5656
121.  Buffalo           52.9338  5.5293
122.  UAB               52.7719  3.0968
123.  Ball St           49.8230  2.0434
124.  Middle Tenn St    49.8044  5.6030
125.  Akron             49.3229  0.4609
126.  C Michigan        49.1806  2.4874
127.  Texas-El Paso     49.1548  1.4682
128.  Tulsa             48.6186 -2.4445
129.  Southern Miss     48.4374  0.7117
130.  Temple            48.2775  4.0396
131.  New Mexico St     47.1878  2.5841
132.  Kennesaw St       46.1396  1.3257
133.  Massachusetts     45.5577 -0.2466
134.  Kent St           39.3500  3.4049


Ratings include games through 11/2/2024.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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