The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2016 Season Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  

                         Rating  HomeAd
     Alabama           106.3129  3.1088
     Ohio St            98.8706  1.3448
     Clemson            97.7033 -0.3836
     Michigan           94.3697  4.4757
     Washington         93.4013  3.5791
     Oklahoma           91.2653  0.8495
     LSU                90.2004  3.6831
     Auburn             88.9421  2.5246
     Wisconsin          87.2731  2.7667
     USC                86.7629  5.5172
     Louisville         85.6295  3.0742
     Florida St         85.2435  6.4079
     Stanford           84.9302  1.6417
     Washington St      84.7700  3.1482
     Virginia Tech      84.4315  2.6376
     Texas A&M          83.9171  0.6478
     Florida            83.0922 -0.5060
     Oklahoma St        83.0744  1.1250
     Iowa               82.7902  1.2360
     Miami Fl           82.5095  3.6925
     Penn St            81.8464  6.6298
     Utah               81.7465 -1.0874
     West Virginia      81.5841  3.7810
     Kansas St          81.1990  1.3930
     Tennessee          81.0447  3.1170
     Mississippi        80.7131  3.3430
     W Kentucky         80.2344  3.2490
     North Carolina     79.7807  4.7260
     Colorado           79.6787  5.0920
     Pittsburgh         79.6598  1.4458
     Baylor             79.4855  3.0178
     Arkansas           79.4051 -0.4545
     Houston            79.1596  1.2433
     TCU                78.8410  3.4814
     W Michigan         78.8124  2.2142
     Notre Dame         78.3093  4.0351
     UCLA               78.1241 -1.9423
     Georgia            77.9960  3.1057
     BYU                77.6789  4.9039
     Oregon             77.5539 -2.0017
     Boise St           77.3867  0.6541
     Mississippi St     77.1483  1.7594
     NC State           77.1146  0.1331
     Northwestern       76.9561  3.0179
     Memphis            76.7532  5.2265
     Nebraska           76.2073  2.9553
     Georgia Tech       76.1391  5.0859
     San Diego St       75.3930  3.5839
     Michigan St        75.3414  3.4020
     Temple             74.9757  4.9932
     South Florida      74.8799  3.9878
     Minnesota          74.8362  3.6241
     Texas              74.7300  1.3746
     Appalachian St     74.2984 -2.7114
     Toledo             74.1253  1.4851
     California         73.6316  5.1601
     Tulsa              73.3880 -1.6269
     Texas Tech         72.7341  2.5573
     Navy               72.4569  4.7619
     Vanderbilt         71.4100  2.4358
     Duke               70.4715 -0.0464
     Arizona St         70.2262  5.6523
     Louisiana Tech     70.1336  5.8307
     South Carolina     69.9167 -0.0360
     Missouri           69.6386  0.1382
     Indiana            69.4208  3.5743
     Air Force          67.6398  7.0940
     Kentucky           67.5178  6.7007
     Oregon St          67.4102  2.3364
     Iowa St            67.1253  9.0129
     Boston College     66.3264  0.5471
     Maryland           66.1011  2.0314
     Troy               66.0538  1.2436
     Wake Forest        66.0082  5.2573
     Colorado St        65.8771  4.9828
     Virginia           64.7544  3.9406
     C Florida          64.7346  0.5734
     Arkansas St        64.4280  6.1614
     Wyoming            64.2675 -0.1576
     N Illinois         64.2658  3.0191
     Arizona            63.9759  4.5661
     Syracuse           63.8540  0.9034
     Southern Miss      63.3277 -0.9691
     Georgia So         62.4815  3.0316
     Ohio               61.9165  3.7258
     Utah St            61.5739  1.8056
     New Mexico         61.2880  2.1691
     Army               61.1526 -0.9359
     East Carolina      60.9421  2.2805
     Old Dominion       60.6101  0.0365
     Middle Tenn St     60.3189  4.9178
     Purdue             60.3088 -2.7768
     UAB                60.1271  6.3851
     UTSA               60.0195 -1.3570
     Illinois           59.6559  4.3643
     Cincinnati         58.9021  5.2416
     SMU                58.2273  0.8707
     C Michigan         57.9160  3.9771
     UL Lafayette       57.7889 -2.7135
     Nevada             57.7043  1.3893
     Bowling Green      57.6777  2.6270
     Georgia St         57.1787 -8.6132
     Miami Oh           56.9773  3.8040
     Idaho              56.2901  3.7110
     S Alabama          56.2435  0.4453
     Ball St            56.0395 -1.3562
     Akron              55.4969  3.2001
     Tulane             54.9192  1.7941
     E Michigan         54.4398  1.0491
     San Jose St        54.0533  3.3202
     UNLV               53.6447 -1.1178
     Connecticut        53.4848  3.5191
     Rutgers            53.3325  2.5797
     Kent St            53.3306  1.7619
     Marshall           52.9391  4.7526
     Hawaii             52.8099  3.5989
     Massachusetts      52.3514  0.3427
     Kansas             51.8378  5.2019
     Florida Intl       50.1313  2.1808
     Fresno St          49.8700  3.1602
     Rice               49.0414  1.2454
     North Texas        48.3210  5.9897
     Florida Atl        48.1871  2.5476
     UL Monroe          46.9162 -2.4611
     New Mexico St      46.4770  3.7980
     Texas-El Paso      44.5584  4.0847
     Charlotte          44.2235  2.9946
     Buffalo            44.2111  9.1687
     Texas St           38.6099 -0.1941


Ratings include games through December 31, 2016.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

Check out the NFL page

Back to Ed and Theresa's Homepage