The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2014 Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  

                         Rating  HomeAd
     Florida St        103.7531  3.2484
     Alabama            99.2598 -1.8407
     Baylor             97.0216  4.9751
     Oregon             95.9268  2.8206
     Oklahoma St        93.2922  5.5954
     Oklahoma           92.6029  4.4492
     LSU                92.2190  0.4222
     Stanford           91.9682  0.0408
     Missouri           91.5282  3.7383
     Auburn             91.2221  2.9782
     Texas A&M          90.7024  7.2607
     Mississippi        89.8149  1.4101
     Georgia            89.6441  2.8975
     Ohio St            88.5610  3.2789
     Wisconsin          87.8120  5.2801
     USC                87.4527  0.2471
     BYU                87.2402  2.3537
     Nebraska           85.7859  3.4064
     Notre Dame         85.0523  3.7252
     Michigan St        85.0342  2.0001
     South Carolina     84.9649  3.1154
     Clemson            84.4685  4.2091
     Kansas St          84.3776  5.4045
     Mississippi St     83.4179  3.3548
     Arizona St         83.2267  9.3409
     Washington         83.0507  4.5468
     Louisville         82.6791  1.1322
     Florida            81.2135  4.5941
     UCLA               80.6194  6.2057
     TCU                80.3347  4.4117
     Arizona            80.1316  3.6251
     Texas              79.9654 -0.1841
     Utah               79.8574  2.1960
     Virginia Tech      79.7955  2.4142
     Georgia Tech       79.7850  1.4572
     Oregon St          79.5353  4.3462
     Duke               78.4396 -0.2257
     Tennessee          76.5010  4.1157
     East Carolina      75.6748  4.4409
     Boise St           75.6629  4.3822
     Iowa               75.5696  2.5457
     C Florida          75.3142  4.4695
     North Carolina     74.6791  3.3227
     Miami Fl           74.3607  3.5973
     Syracuse           74.1607  5.6530
     West Virginia      74.1246  3.6592
     UTSA               73.9137 -4.7820
     Cincinnati         73.6630  6.0990
     N Illinois         73.6287  5.4541
     Pittsburgh         73.5137  2.6967
     Iowa St            72.9048  4.2105
     Penn St            72.8906  5.0470
     Navy               72.6518 -5.4286
     Utah St            72.5828  0.2556
     Arkansas           72.5046  6.2925
     Houston            71.2855  2.5973
     NC State           70.8674  1.9296
     Michigan           70.8134  5.1068
     Boston College     70.7286  4.4550
     Texas Tech         70.2145  3.4423
     W Kentucky         69.9733 -2.8880
     Washington St      69.8375  1.1188
     Temple             69.7723  0.7455
     Ball St            69.3267  2.1364
     Northwestern       68.8387  0.5038
     Marshall           68.5960  9.1651
     Minnesota          68.2987  5.3361
     Bowling Green      67.8092  1.7761
     San Diego St       67.7626  3.5973
     Indiana            67.1851  6.3943
     Kentucky           67.1498  3.6158
     Nevada             67.0475  6.9374
     Colorado St        66.9653  4.7218
     Rutgers            66.8182  2.3159
     Illinois           66.5307  2.0159
     Maryland           66.5153  3.6871
     Louisiana Tech     66.0499  6.3786
     Virginia           65.8590  2.6701
     North Texas        65.4603  4.4519
     Toledo             65.3842  4.2729
     Rice               64.9718  6.6760
     Memphis            64.8211  1.7520
     Vanderbilt         64.4763 -1.0488
     Fresno St          63.9819  4.4437
     California         63.8141  4.4320
     San Jose St        62.6405  2.6625
     Arkansas St        62.4570  6.6045
     Buffalo            62.1079  3.9752
     Florida Atl        60.9744  1.5590
     Wake Forest        60.9246  3.0463
     Middle Tenn St     60.9033  6.5169
     UAB                59.3858  2.4675
     Tulane             58.8276  2.3481
     Hawaii             58.3710  8.2465
     Colorado           58.1406  5.3770
     UL Lafayette       57.9578  0.5617
     Connecticut        57.9464  5.3538
     S Alabama          57.5251  5.0934
     UL Monroe          57.3560  0.7484
     SMU                56.2295  5.2607
     Wyoming            55.7252  5.5705
     Army               55.3277  4.8705
     South Florida      55.0872  2.0173
     Tulsa              54.2723  2.9689
     UNLV               53.9311  5.9026
     Purdue             53.6551  2.1302
     Ohio               52.7457  5.3493
     Akron              52.6938  2.3869
     Kansas             52.6736  6.2352
     Air Force          52.5209  1.5574
     C Michigan         52.4594  4.4954
     Texas St           51.7366  5.7345
     Texas-El Paso      51.4828  5.5692
     Troy               50.9645  4.6502
     Kent St            50.7122  1.1052
     W Michigan         50.0996  1.1927
     New Mexico         49.4531  4.3623
     Massachusetts      45.3952  2.8618
     Southern Miss      45.1150  3.4102
     Miami Oh           43.9973  1.5519
     Florida Intl       43.2680  3.4894
     Idaho              43.1877  1.6370
     New Mexico St      38.7912  4.8370
     E Michigan         35.8110  0.4479



Ratings include games from through 9/13/14.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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