The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Basketball Ratings2014 Season Ratings |
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Below are the ratings for Division 1 College Basketball. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating. At the bottom of the table there is a general home-court advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home-court advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings. Post Season Predicted results (and archived predictions) are available for games by date: 3/18/2012 3/19/2012 3/20/2012 3/21/2012 3/22/2012 3/23/2012 3/24/2012 3/25/2012 3/26/2012 3/27/2012 3/28/2012 3/29/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 4/1/2012 4/2/2012 4/3/2012
Prediction Record
W-L Pct
98-41 0.705
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Rat HA
Louisville 92.9774 4.3486
Wisconsin 91.2819 -3.5745
Florida 90.8973 1.9436
Arizona 90.2339 5.1672
Michigan St 89.1401 -1.7893
Wichita St 88.8147 -1.6991
Virginia 87.1138 3.7469
Pittsburgh 86.9047 -1.8952
UCLA 86.8334 2.5813
Tennessee 86.5879 4.1186
Kentucky 86.3772 2.3882
Baylor 86.1126 -1.1889
Syracuse 85.9669 -1.2556
Michigan 85.8474 5.8996
Villanova 85.7089 5.3780
Connecticut 85.3851 2.8669
Kansas 84.9212 9.8702
Oregon 84.9067 0.9301
San Diego St 84.7069 0.8753
Oklahoma 84.1994 1.2884
Duke 83.7832 8.9310
Iowa 83.6288 6.4836
Iowa St 83.4780 7.9909
VA Commonwealth 83.4326 5.4512
Creighton 82.4865 8.7324
Oklahoma St 82.4350 10.5591
Gonzaga 82.2865 6.9760
North Carolina 82.1928 5.0421
Ohio St 82.1829 8.6662
New Mexico 82.1643 3.1303
Illinois 81.8970 -4.0987
Harvard 81.8901 2.9492
Louisiana Tech 81.5655 6.8241
Cincinnati 81.2490 7.3953
St Louis 80.9214 2.9366
St John's 80.8315 0.9579
Florida St 80.7327 1.4867
UNLV 80.6788 -3.4788
St Joseph's PA 80.5477 -0.2587
Memphis 80.4685 3.2617
Dayton 80.3390 1.7143
Stanford 80.3126 5.0108
NC State 80.2953 -1.3988
WI Green Bay 79.7966 -2.2564
Providence 79.2214 5.1031
Maryland 79.1882 4.9245
UTEP 79.0763 -5.5385
SMU 78.9366 8.7292
Manhattan 78.8710 -0.0522
SF Austin 78.8148 -1.6291
Georgia St 78.6482 2.7333
Seton Hall 78.5515 -1.2169
Texas 78.4849 7.2715
Boise St 78.4811 0.8483
Marquette 78.4619 2.4275
Miami FL 78.4438 -0.0897
LSU 78.3321 3.7540
Iona 78.2070 3.1792
Massachusetts 78.1127 4.2252
N Dakota St 77.9801 4.2645
Northwestern 77.9763 -6.6451
Kansas St 77.8186 7.7481
California 77.7965 3.7348
Minnesota 77.5697 6.7120
NC Central 77.5295 3.9805
Tulsa 77.4928 2.7994
G Washington 77.4646 8.1278
Utah 77.4404 9.0305
Clemson 77.3639 6.9543
Missouri 77.1964 3.3444
Indiana 77.1901 6.7567
Xavier 77.1712 7.5875
Penn St 76.9794 1.2408
West Virginia 76.9793 9.3681
San Francisco 76.7290 0.5493
Georgia 76.6552 4.4887
Belmont 76.4997 1.0825
Arizona St 76.3630 11.3101
Butler 76.2548 1.5606
Vermont 76.2089 7.1027
Southern Miss 76.1875 7.7315
BYU 76.1726 13.1302
St Mary's CA 76.1410 6.2337
Georgia Tech 76.1384 -1.6456
New Mexico St 76.0587 6.6646
Oregon St 75.9870 0.6591
Ohio 75.9852 -3.0046
Texas Tech 75.8981 5.2331
St Bonaventure 75.8560 3.6599
Mercer 75.7977 4.8457
Purdue 75.7759 4.2601
Mississippi 75.7456 4.9014
Delaware 75.7017 -0.1352
Nebraska 75.6793 10.3342
UC Irvine 75.6617 2.5408
Middle Tenn St 75.6603 4.8434
Arkansas 75.5335 15.1525
Colorado 75.1907 8.4939
Cleveland St 75.1849 3.1137
Washington 75.1647 3.0434
Notre Dame 75.0432 4.4571
Georgetown 74.9800 11.4369
Duquesne 74.9652 -4.3463
Canisius 74.9327 -2.9223
Fresno St 74.8844 1.9421
E Kentucky 74.8320 -3.5835
Portland 74.7749 1.0769
Princeton 74.7368 0.8173
South Carolina 74.7346 2.2093
Indiana St 74.0197 2.1935
Rhode Island 73.9852 2.9354
George Mason 73.6588 -1.2646
Santa Barbara 73.6386 2.7780
Santa Clara 73.6101 -2.8213
Richmond 73.5801 5.9700
Boston Univ 73.4081 3.6318
La Salle 73.3265 4.8856
Drexel 73.2863 -0.2296
Yale 73.2860 -2.0528
W Michigan 73.1847 2.6326
Vanderbilt 73.1632 4.7681
San Diego 73.1514 1.4175
Auburn 73.1287 5.1895
Toledo 73.1037 5.0460
Davidson 73.0389 4.4180
Nevada 72.9879 -0.2878
Boston College 72.8604 1.2227
Bucknell 72.7509 -1.9069
Alabama 72.7165 11.2977
Northern Iowa 72.6040 9.2042
American Univ 72.4906 4.1480
Temple 72.4633 0.0945
IPFW 72.3516 1.9239
Holy Cross 72.3112 -1.3166
Pepperdine 72.2887 -1.4557
ULL 72.0402 9.0871
WI Milwaukee 71.9696 -5.2943
S Dakota St 71.8589 4.6191
Akron 71.8160 3.6403
UCF 71.7284 1.6542
Wright St 71.7169 3.1758
Brown 71.6609 -0.2642
Towson 71.6381 5.4727
Kent 71.5507 -2.8232
Wyoming 71.4567 6.2292
TCU 71.3176 -4.8918
Hawaii 71.2763 4.8161
Cal Poly SLO 71.2338 -3.7667
Morehead St 71.2126 -0.9820
Stony Brook 71.1270 0.6608
USC 71.1192 1.5818
Buffalo 71.1073 12.0362
Robert Morris 70.9255 -1.9182
S Illinois 70.9116 2.4527
Long Beach St 70.7717 4.2494
Wake Forest 70.7623 8.1897
SC Upstate 70.6994 1.8039
Colgate 70.6851 0.3666
NE Omaha 70.5800 1.2682
W Kentucky 70.5655 -0.1130
Utah St 70.5049 7.6465
Wofford 70.5048 -1.5824
E Michigan 70.3234 7.7899
Denver 70.2923 5.6829
DePaul 70.2826 0.1971
Quinnipiac 70.2420 4.8637
Murray St 70.2342 10.1154
Northwestern LA 69.9817 0.3897
Texas A&M 69.9654 10.1189
South Florida 69.7707 -0.7783
Southern Univ 69.7465 -0.6552
Northeastern 69.7145 -1.5876
Weber St 69.7065 4.3012
Colorado St 69.7033 7.3993
William & Mary 69.6031 5.0070
Col Charleston 69.5292 1.6189
Pacific 69.4999 7.6688
Old Dominion 69.4093 4.2270
Siena 69.3635 4.4513
Columbia 69.3544 9.4184
Air Force 69.3363 -4.5466
Youngstown St 69.1017 1.1165
Virginia Tech 69.0094 5.2824
Arkansas St 68.9300 7.7058
Loy Marymount 68.8537 3.0548
SE Missouri St 68.8473 -2.3660
Charlotte 68.7408 3.1424
Morgan St 68.7294 -0.7390
Evansville 68.6664 0.7349
UAB 68.6582 6.1121
Houston 68.6315 10.1626
Rider 68.6087 -1.4622
N Illinois 68.6033 2.2555
Washington St 68.5958 6.5620
Elon 68.5652 1.0659
Drake 68.5296 3.0774
Missouri St 68.5066 7.5517
Albany NY 68.3454 6.4414
Bowling Green 68.3150 1.2435
VMI 68.3006 2.4459
St Francis NY 68.2897 1.7733
CS Bakersfield 68.2198 -2.0312
North Texas 68.1971 -2.5815
IL Chicago 68.1819 -8.1495
Dartmouth 68.1316 -1.3667
UT Arlington 68.0488 -0.5351
Bryant 68.0249 0.6883
Charleston So 67.9781 1.8585
Hampton 67.8576 3.6215
Army 67.8395 0.0875
Valparaiso 67.7996 6.6386
Oral Roberts 67.7943 4.1847
Utah Valley 67.7788 2.6712
FL Gulf Coast 67.6161 8.5746
ULM 67.5104 -0.4269
Mississippi St 67.2843 4.9305
E Washington 67.2554 0.3738
Miami OH 67.2477 2.9542
Ark Little Rock 67.2346 1.6876
Illinois St 67.0782 11.1572
Wagner 67.0716 6.6661
Oakland 66.9987 5.0991
St Peter's 66.9567 1.6543
East Carolina 66.9456 1.7759
Sam Houston St 66.8900 6.1595
Coastal Car 66.8810 3.4057
N Colorado 66.8375 2.1866
Detroit 66.7918 4.2942
Mt St Mary's 66.6007 3.5654
Norfolk St 66.5581 -0.1435
TAM C. Christi 66.4790 1.9415
Troy 66.4240 1.7554
Gardner Webb 66.3527 0.1465
Marshall 66.2753 2.2173
Seattle 66.2599 -0.1338
North Florida 66.2190 -0.0528
CS Northridge 66.1787 5.9242
Grand Canyon 66.1081 1.2933
Montana 66.0964 4.5539
Fairfield 65.8837 -1.1324
Hartford 65.7696 4.4148
W Carolina 65.6395 3.5686
Rutgers 65.4919 8.7321
Lipscomb 65.4553 0.8489
ETSU 65.4493 3.8441
High Point 65.2347 2.4059
Fordham 65.1778 6.8385
Florida Intl 65.0203 5.6277
Tennessee St 64.9928 -3.2425
Winthrop 64.8631 6.8245
Marist 64.8158 8.4576
Lehigh 64.7455 4.2488
Idaho St 64.7339 3.4760
Idaho 64.5992 3.8219
Radford 64.5738 2.1293
Liberty 64.5222 -3.0907
Northern Arizona 64.5054 4.0326
Hofstra 64.4471 4.9928
South Alabama 64.3486 5.0094
Lafayette 64.3007 4.6235
CS Fullerton 64.2236 4.8643
TX Southern 64.1396 5.2836
FL Atlantic 64.1034 6.5871
W Illinois 64.0500 3.9724
Monmouth NJ 64.0472 2.6480
UNC Asheville 64.0185 9.2951
Bradley 64.0030 9.9282
Loyola-Chicago 63.9687 8.3059
Texas St 63.9155 2.7961
Tennessee Tech 63.8244 3.4115
James Madison 63.8110 4.6614
TX Pan American 63.6696 -3.0068
Savannah St 63.5626 4.5627
UC Riverside 63.4524 2.5776
North Dakota 63.4161 5.5866
Penn 63.2599 5.3214
Coppin St 63.0644 -0.9497
Austin Peay 62.7172 0.2862
Incarnate Word 62.6439 5.4707
Missouri KC 62.5087 4.5686
New Hampshire 62.4516 -6.3385
Portland St 62.4216 4.9516
Ga Southern 62.2389 1.3117
C Michigan 62.2089 3.5952
UNC Wilmington 61.9179 6.6090
NJIT 61.8746 0.4156
N Kentucky 61.8688 2.0796
Niagara 61.8077 6.3943
Rice 61.7373 1.9967
San Jose St 61.5811 2.5896
UT San Antonio 61.4455 2.7133
Central Conn 61.3364 -1.1722
Tulane 61.2799 6.3301
F Dickinson 61.2455 3.8966
CS Sacramento 61.2366 9.0494
Jacksonville St 61.2278 -0.1821
Edwardsville 61.2193 4.3308
Montana St 61.0971 1.4067
Sacred Heart 61.0605 -1.8161
South Dakota 61.0537 11.8415
Long Island 60.9150 -4.1581
MA Lowell 60.9014 0.5986
Chicago St 60.8928 5.1913
Florida A&M 60.7288 2.3115
Ball St 60.4367 4.6568
Delaware St 60.2431 3.2133
Jackson St 60.2405 3.1095
Chattanooga 60.2241 8.2524
Alabama A&M 60.1018 2.0277
St Francis PA 60.0937 1.1790
Campbell 60.0703 -0.4519
UNC Greensboro 59.9017 2.4935
Jacksonville 59.8356 5.1382
Navy 59.7511 5.6137
Loyola MD 59.7413 6.5431
E Illinois 59.6374 6.2529
McNeese St 59.5839 3.4277
TN Martin 59.2953 2.0537
Alabama St 58.8001 5.8253
Ark Pine Bluff 58.7387 0.9432
New Orleans 58.7068 -0.7431
UC Davis 58.6848 4.6652
UMBC 58.6653 2.7990
Cornell 58.4830 -2.2445
Nicholls St 58.2737 6.5977
IUPUI 58.1057 -0.5849
Appalachian St 57.9604 1.7397
Prairie View 57.4855 1.2946
SE Louisiana 57.4745 8.0920
Bethune-Cookman 57.3412 2.3834
Samford 57.2733 5.7772
Maine 57.2684 -0.9051
Alcorn St 57.2640 3.3090
Lamar 56.5255 1.3492
Citadel 56.3567 1.8263
Kennesaw 56.3075 3.3199
Furman 55.8103 1.8657
Binghamton 55.7986 5.4184
Houston Bap 55.3521 1.5505
NC A&T 55.0981 6.6184
MD E Shore 54.9691 7.6104
S Carolina St 54.8240 5.1463
Southern Utah 54.7328 -2.4149
Cent Arkansas 54.5919 6.8849
Abilene Chr 54.1045 1.2958
Stetson 53.9028 8.4140
Howard 53.8338 11.6277
Presbyterian 52.8637 1.5584
Longwood 52.8016 0.6705
Grambling 51.1451 -1.6444
MS Valley St 50.1457 8.3022
Ratings include all games through 4/2/2014.
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Notes: Special thanks to Ken Massey for capturing all the game results and posting them on the internet. Big raspberry to Ken Pomeroy for trying to charge for the data. The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here. |