The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Basketball Ratings2012 Season Ratings |
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Below are the ratings for Division 1 College Basketball. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating. At the bottom of the table there is a general home-court advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home-court advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings. Post Season Predicted results (and archived predictions) are available for games by date: 3/13/2012 3/14/2012 3/15/2012 3/16/2012 3/17/2012 3/18/2012 3/19/2012 3/20/2012 3/21/2012 3/22/2012 3/23/2012 3/24/2012 3/25/2012 3/26/2012 3/27/2012 3/28/2012 3/29/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 4/2/2012
Prediction Record
Straight-up vs. Spread Best Bet
98-46-0 69-72-3 11-7-1
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rating HA
Kentucky 92.32 3.71
Ohio St 91.56 2.44
Kansas 89.03 4.98
Michigan St 88.91 6.10
Vanderbilt 87.91 -1.76
Florida 87.10 0.75
Syracuse 87.09 4.87
North Carolina 87.08 6.76
Wisconsin 86.70 2.46
Missouri 86.59 3.49
Wichita St 85.77 4.82
Louisville 85.67 0.43
Memphis 85.32 6.10
Baylor 84.79 2.94
Indiana 84.16 6.68
Duke 83.73 1.51
New Mexico 83.66 6.62
Georgetown 83.40 7.50
NC State 83.29 -3.70
Belmont 83.05 3.62
Stanford 83.04 1.64
St Louis 82.96 7.11
Cincinnati 82.84 1.79
Iowa St 82.79 1.95
Gonzaga 82.79 5.38
Purdue 82.65 2.22
Kansas St 82.61 2.23
Michigan 81.80 3.20
Alabama 81.71 1.83
Florida St 81.68 4.50
St Mary's CA 81.47 1.59
Creighton 81.46 0.97
BYU 81.12 4.26
Marquette 81.08 9.20
Long Beach St 81.08 2.29
Arizona 81.05 0.12
South Florida 80.79 1.56
VA Commonwealth 80.60 1.78
Murray St 80.48 0.86
Harvard 80.35 0.37
UCLA 80.12 5.31
California 80.10 7.82
Oregon 80.00 4.10
Texas 79.98 6.55
Pittsburgh 79.92 0.64
Temple 79.88 3.46
Iona 79.87 1.55
Drexel 79.61 2.55
Middle Tenn St 79.59 2.33
Miami FL 79.35 2.38
Minnesota 79.16 1.67
New Mexico St 79.11 2.81
St Bonaventure 78.67 5.75
Xavier 78.59 4.64
Virginia 78.56 5.72
Connecticut 78.47 6.79
Ohio 78.34 4.06
San Diego St 78.18 1.45
Washington 78.16 7.08
La Salle 78.11 3.24
West Virginia 78.10 5.52
Seton Hall 77.87 3.44
Cleveland St 77.71 -0.25
Notre Dame 77.66 9.59
S Dakota St 77.29 9.57
Virginia Tech 77.13 0.70
UNLV 77.13 8.57
Dayton 77.07 6.28
Massachusetts 76.99 5.11
Davidson 76.90 7.34
St Joseph's PA 76.87 4.71
Detroit 76.79 -1.08
Colorado 76.73 4.60
Bucknell 76.68 1.72
Georgia St 76.67 5.83
Old Dominion 76.63 0.13
Buffalo 76.63 0.79
Clemson 76.60 3.99
Marshall 76.60 1.40
Southern Miss 76.59 3.52
Missouri St 76.42 -1.59
Tennessee 76.36 6.84
Lehigh 76.23 3.43
Villanova 76.16 3.00
Oregon St 76.03 3.61
Mississippi 75.87 4.48
Northwestern 75.67 5.83
Akron 75.56 6.84
Tulsa 75.53 3.38
Lamar 75.49 1.82
Santa Barbara 75.49 3.72
Mercer 75.45 4.27
Loy Marymount 75.31 -1.68
Fairfield 75.30 3.03
Illinois St 75.28 5.98
Nevada 75.19 2.54
Washington St 75.03 8.40
Wagner 74.99 0.97
Oral Roberts 74.90 2.94
Northern Iowa 74.79 4.79
Iowa 74.61 5.86
Denver 74.51 8.13
Wyoming 74.49 3.97
Princeton 74.46 6.63
Robert Morris 74.41 1.02
Butler 74.33 4.21
Illinois 74.15 7.23
San Francisco 74.09 2.12
Manhattan 74.08 1.44
Mississippi St 74.03 5.74
Richmond 73.94 5.63
George Mason 73.93 4.55
East Carolina 73.88 1.47
Loyola MD 73.73 1.57
UT Arlington 73.71 6.61
Rutgers 73.69 2.95
LSU 73.62 5.19
Evansville 73.43 3.23
Texas A&M 73.42 4.57
Vermont 73.26 6.68
Penn 73.25 1.72
SF Austin 73.08 1.29
Oklahoma St 73.08 8.91
Montana 73.05 7.23
Colorado St 72.99 9.11
UNC Asheville 72.93 6.64
UAB 72.84 2.90
Rice 72.81 0.18
Charlotte 72.49 0.32
Georgia 72.49 7.96
Georgia Tech 72.46 -4.26
Quinnipiac 72.42 2.78
Maryland 72.37 3.81
Oklahoma 72.34 7.22
Bowling Green 72.28 4.01
Kent 72.18 5.59
Stony Brook 72.17 4.15
UCF 72.06 6.87
South Carolina 72.04 1.35
Duquesne 71.96 5.35
Oakland 71.90 4.50
ETSU 71.70 4.28
Idaho 71.69 1.89
Tennessee St 71.69 0.86
Boise St 71.61 1.63
Providence 71.59 5.68
Utah St 71.52 8.15
UTEP 71.41 4.76
St John's 71.33 2.52
Ark Little Rock 71.15 0.55
Indiana St 71.14 3.88
Col Charleston 71.07 0.33
UT San Antonio 71.05 -0.34
Weber St 70.93 4.66
W Kentucky 70.82 1.12
SC Upstate 70.79 8.61
Valparaiso 70.71 5.47
Air Force 70.55 -1.92
North Texas 70.45 7.12
Nebraska 70.45 3.40
DePaul 70.41 4.84
FL Gulf Coast 70.34 2.31
Drake 70.33 6.88
San Diego 70.06 -0.12
Penn St 69.85 8.18
Long Island 69.62 6.65
Albany NY 69.54 1.02
N Dakota St 69.50 4.37
G Washington 69.44 4.32
Youngstown St 69.41 6.39
Arkansas St 69.38 2.80
Rhode Island 69.35 1.01
Yale 69.23 6.82
USC 69.16 -2.47
Florida Intl 69.12 -3.84
Boston Univ 69.12 3.65
Auburn 69.11 8.03
W Michigan 69.10 3.15
CS Fullerton 69.04 6.27
Fresno St 69.00 3.70
Lipscomb 69.00 -0.87
ULL 68.95 0.20
Delaware 68.89 6.60
Arkansas 68.81 10.13
WI Milwaukee 68.80 8.72
Northeastern 68.79 2.77
Coastal Car 68.77 2.20
American Univ 68.77 5.48
Norfolk St 68.72 -0.45
Louisiana Tech 68.70 5.66
Miami OH 68.57 2.95
SMU 68.50 2.59
Columbia 68.46 3.65
St Francis NY 68.46 1.48
IUPUI 68.42 3.47
W Illinois 68.34 4.77
NC Central 68.25 0.46
Morehead St 68.16 4.39
Savannah St 68.11 8.16
Tennessee Tech 68.09 2.26
FL Atlantic 68.09 0.69
E Washington 68.04 0.24
WI Green Bay 68.03 6.11
Charleston So 68.02 5.95
North Florida 67.96 4.50
McNeese St 67.78 2.58
Sacred Heart 67.74 -0.48
Jacksonville 67.64 0.03
Jacksonville St 67.63 6.03
Cal Poly SLO 67.61 9.56
Portland St 67.35 3.94
Toledo 67.24 5.22
Ball St 67.20 3.32
TCU 67.18 10.55
Hawaii 66.99 3.08
UC Irvine 66.95 -0.73
Presbyterian 66.95 -0.87
Seattle 66.76 5.11
Rider 66.76 6.86
Cornell 66.61 5.65
Austin Peay 66.58 3.38
Southern Utah 66.52 2.16
Niagara 66.47 1.35
Lafayette 66.42 2.52
Arizona St 66.42 5.27
Furman 66.29 2.06
W Carolina 66.28 3.14
Loyola-Chicago 66.20 -3.12
South Alabama 65.92 6.06
SE Missouri St 65.90 6.21
Wright St 65.69 6.16
Wake Forest 65.68 5.79
MS Valley St 65.67 2.58
Central Conn 65.66 6.99
Utah Val St 65.58 6.15
Hofstra 65.43 6.87
James Madison 65.43 2.44
Houston 65.40 9.18
N Colorado 65.37 -0.49
CS Bakersfield 65.25 4.56
Siena 65.21 6.48
Wofford 65.16 11.74
Northwestern LA 65.16 5.52
Delaware St 65.13 3.33
UNC Wilmington 65.05 3.95
Texas Tech 65.04 4.08
Ga Southern 65.03 5.69
Sam Houston St 64.91 0.30
Tulane 64.91 8.68
Stetson 64.90 3.62
High Point 64.87 6.44
Winthrop 64.64 2.56
Gardner Webb 64.50 2.17
Portland 64.49 -0.35
Bethune-Cookman 64.46 3.90
Samford 64.40 2.59
Holy Cross 64.27 8.20
VMI 64.27 3.77
C Michigan 64.25 2.51
Elon 64.17 4.47
Coppin St 64.09 0.17
Missouri KC 64.08 -1.43
Maine 64.06 1.34
Troy 64.05 2.45
Appalachian St 64.02 5.30
San Jose St 63.89 3.33
Liberty 63.88 2.68
Hampton 63.85 -0.15
UNC Greensboro 63.84 2.74
UC Riverside 63.80 1.83
Santa Clara 63.75 2.58
S Illinois 63.60 8.45
Morgan St 63.56 2.20
E Kentucky 63.54 1.46
Texas St 63.51 6.64
North Dakota 63.24 8.49
Boston College 63.23 5.38
Dartmouth 63.11 0.09
Chattanooga 63.07 5.58
IPFW 62.92 4.11
Bradley 62.76 3.42
Marist 62.62 8.38
Campbell 62.53 8.27
IL Chicago 62.32 2.61
E Michigan 62.28 6.97
TX Southern 62.18 8.80
CS Sacramento 62.18 2.46
New Hampshire 62.05 3.45
Pacific 62.04 5.47
Mt St Mary's 62.02 2.71
William & Mary 62.01 5.62
CS Northridge 61.74 0.82
Pepperdine 61.67 6.06
Hartford 61.64 2.13
E Illinois 61.58 -0.07
Army 61.56 2.03
South Dakota 61.24 5.94
ULM 61.23 -2.41
Fordham 60.95 8.27
Edwardsville 60.83 1.63
Monmouth NJ 60.75 9.94
SE Louisiana 60.49 4.19
Idaho St 60.26 1.91
Florida A&M 60.21 -1.03
Canisius 60.16 -1.00
Montana St 60.09 5.66
Radford 59.92 1.17
NC A&T 59.92 5.84
TAM C. Christi 59.75 3.26
Kennesaw 59.53 -0.06
NJIT 59.33 9.81
St Peter's 58.85 -0.55
Utah 58.81 8.87
Colgate 58.58 2.13
Alabama St 58.51 1.34
Ark Pine Bluff 58.46 0.96
Citadel 58.44 3.59
TX Pan American 58.41 4.80
Navy 58.17 1.36
Howard 57.84 3.21
Brown 57.84 5.66
F Dickinson 57.61 -0.70
Prairie View 57.51 1.31
N Illinois 57.02 3.43
Bryant 56.96 -2.55
Jackson St 56.78 -0.03
Chicago St 56.51 0.56
Houston Bap 56.48 5.89
Southern Univ 56.47 6.74
St Francis PA 56.41 8.46
Towson 55.91 2.19
Binghamton 55.86 -1.31
NE Omaha 55.45 2.60
Alcorn St 55.39 4.93
UC Davis 55.25 6.97
MD E Shore 55.24 3.96
Cent Arkansas 54.99 6.49
TN Martin 54.75 2.58
MD Baltimore Co 54.73 -0.35
Alabama A&M 54.59 3.44
Northern Arizona 52.91 4.41
Nicholls St 52.17 10.95
S Carolina St 51.91 3.83
Longwood 49.81 10.17
Grambling 49.72 1.35
Ratings include all games through 3/31/2012.
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Notes: Special thanks to Ken Massey for capturing all the game results and posting them on the internet. Big raspberry to Ken Pomeroy for trying to charge for the data. The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here. |