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For those unaware, the background shows the last play of the UCLA-A&M tourney game (under 5 seconds left, UCLA up 2, no foul called). It's a clean block (Enberg and Bilas)! Uh, so is the guiding principle that both arms, wrists, elbows, etc. are part of the ball? Apparently so, at least if you're playing UCLA in Anaheim. |
The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Basketball Ratings2008 Season Ratings |
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Below are the ratings for Division 1 College Basketball. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating. At the bottom of the table there is a general home-court advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home-court advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings. |
1 Kansas 95.51 2 North Carolina 93.92 3 Memphis 93.48 4 UCLA 92.18 5 Duke 91.12 6 Wisconsin 89.97 7 Georgetown 89.22 8 Louisville 89.19 9 Tennessee 88.69 10 Washington St. 88.40 11 Xavier 88.39 12 Texas 88.37 13 West Virginia 88.25 14 Marquette 88.22 15 Davidson 88.11 16 Gonzaga 87.40 17 Clemson 87.37 18 Stanford 87.36 19 Kansas St. 86.46 20 Michigan St. 86.45 21 Texas A&M 86.28 22 Drake 86.18 23 Connecticut 86.07 24 Pittsburgh 86.03 25 Notre Dame 85.94 26 Indiana 85.84 27 New Mexico 85.69 28 Butler 85.34 29 Brigham Young 85.13 30 Florida 85.05 31 Arizona 84.97 32 St. Mary's 84.79 33 Mississippi St. 84.74 34 Southern California 84.67 35 Ohio St. 84.32 36 Purdue 84.04 37 Western Kentucky 84.03 38 Arkansas 83.58 39 Virginia Tech 83.54 40 Miami FL 83.40 41 Mississippi 83.40 42 Oregon 83.11 43 Oklahoma 83.03 44 Saint Joseph's 83.02 45 Nebraska 83.01 46 Baylor 82.96 47 Missouri 82.90 48 Nevada Las Vegas 82.68 49 Syracuse 82.54 50 Duquesne 82.43 51 Massachusetts 82.26 52 UAB 82.14 53 Villanova 82.09 54 IUPUI 82.07 55 Virginia Commonwealth 82.01 56 Vanderbilt 82.00 57 South Alabama 81.99 58 Arizona St. 81.91 59 Kent St. 81.90 60 Georgia Tech 81.89 61 Houston 81.83 62 Illinois 81.81 63 Minnesota 81.74 64 Utah 81.70 65 Rhode Island 81.62 66 Florida St. 81.53 67 Oral Roberts 81.52 68 George Mason 81.25 69 Maryland 81.19 70 Akron 81.19 71 Illinois St. 81.18 72 Cal St. Fullerton 81.17 73 Dayton 81.14 74 Temple 81.13 75 Kentucky 80.88 76 Oklahoma St. 80.81 77 Creighton 80.72 78 Tulsa 80.69 79 California 80.67 80 Southern Illinois 80.64 81 Washington 80.40 82 New Mexico St. 80.12 83 Siena 80.05 84 Wake Forest 80.05 85 Miami OH 79.87 86 San Diego St. 79.80 87 Alabama 79.75 88 Stephen F. Austin 79.69 89 Providence 79.58 90 Winthrop 79.54 91 Charlotte 79.51 92 Western Michigan 79.40 93 Texas Tech 79.32 94 Central Florida 79.10 95 Nevada 79.08 96 Virginia 79.07 97 Rider 78.97 98 Missouri St. 78.94 99 Georgia 78.92 100 Ohio 78.83 101 Portland St. 78.78 102 Texas El Paso 78.77 103 South Carolina 78.75 104 Bradley 78.62 105 NC Greensboro 78.56 106 Cornell 78.53 107 Cal St. Northridge 78.50 108 Southern Mississippi 78.37 109 UC Santa Barbara 78.33 110 Utah St. 78.32 111 Cleveland St. 78.12 112 MD Baltimore County 78.08 113 North Dakota St. 77.92 114 Robert Morris 77.91 115 Old Dominion 77.89 116 Boise St. 77.86 117 South Florida 77.80 118 Sam Houston St. 77.68 119 Belmont 77.63 120 Illinois Chicago 77.61 121 Niagara 77.43 122 San Diego 77.38 123 Boston College 77.36 124 North Texas 77.31 125 Seton Hall 77.25 126 Louisiana St. 77.25 127 Valparaiso 77.18 128 Brown 77.15 129 Pacific 77.05 130 Wright St. 77.03 131 North Carolina St. 76.93 132 Colorado 76.83 133 Cincinnati 76.80 134 Georgia Southern 76.77 135 Northern Iowa 76.74 136 DePaul 76.54 137 American 76.46 138 Oakland 76.38 139 Penn St. 76.34 140 Marist 76.30 141 Northern Arizona 76.23 142 Northeastern 76.21 143 Marshall 76.20 144 Appalachian St. 76.18 145 Iowa St. 76.17 146 Austin Peay 76.08 147 Morgan St. 75.77 148 Auburn 75.76 149 Santa Clara 75.67 150 Air Force 75.61 151 UC Irvine 75.52 152 Lamar 75.50 153 Wisconsin Green Bay 75.49 154 La Salle 75.40 155 Indiana St. 75.40 156 Holy Cross 75.36 157 St. John's 75.15 158 Michigan 75.12 159 Vermont 75.12 160 NC Asheville 75.11 161 Loyola MD 75.08 162 Albany 75.08 163 NC Wilmington 75.07 164 Mount St. Mary's 75.02 165 Fordham 75.01 166 Iowa 74.98 167 Richmond 74.96 168 Wichita St. 74.91 169 Chattanooga 74.77 170 Texas Arlington 74.66 171 College of Charleston 74.59 172 Tulane 74.49 173 High Point 74.49 174 East Tennessee St. 74.42 175 Lafayette 74.35 176 Texas Christian 74.34 177 Murray St. 74.30 178 St. Louis 74.28 179 Gardner Webb 74.19 180 Montana 74.08 181 Weber St. 74.07 182 New Orleans 74.00 183 Central Connecticut 73.99 184 Alabama St. 73.96 185 Lipscomb 73.76 186 Hampton 73.76 187 Fresno St. 73.73 188 Colgate 73.69 189 George Washington 73.67 190 Navy 73.66 191 Wisconsin Milwaukee 73.62 192 William & Mary 73.61 193 Central Michigan 73.51 194 Arkansas Little Rock 73.50 195 Liberty 73.44 196 Louisiana Lafayette 73.44 197 Eastern Michigan 73.32 198 Middle Tennessee 73.30 199 Sacred Heart 73.18 200 Southeastern Louisiana 73.12 201 Long Island 73.02 202 James Madison 72.84 203 Utah Valley St. 72.77 204 Jacksonville 72.75 205 Elon 72.67 206 Wyoming 72.63 207 Tennessee St. 72.58 208 Delaware 72.48 209 IUPU Fort Wayne 72.48 210 Fairfield 72.45 211 Binghamton 72.41 212 Buffalo 72.31 213 Boston University 72.25 214 Wagner 72.20 215 Iona 72.04 216 Loyola Chicago 71.99 217 Yale 71.98 218 Hofstra 71.98 219 Rutgers 71.97 220 Northwestern 71.94 221 Quinnipiac 71.88 222 Montana St. 71.84 223 Wofford 71.83 224 Manhattan 71.67 225 Bucknell 71.65 226 Tennessee Martin 71.64 227 Tennessee Tech 71.60 228 Northern Colorado 71.51 229 Bowling Green 71.42 230 Southern Utah 71.40 231 Florida Atlantic 71.31 232 St. Bonaventure 71.31 233 Lehigh 71.13 234 Denver 71.13 235 Hartford 71.10 236 Texas Pan American 71.09 237 Towson 70.96 238 Hawaii 70.86 239 Youngstown St. 70.83 240 Columbia 70.79 241 Toledo 70.78 242 Virginia Military Inst 70.76 243 Evansville 70.60 244 McNeese St. 70.60 245 Pepperdine 70.56 246 Troy 70.55 247 Army 70.32 248 Eastern Washington 70.31 249 Ball St. 70.25 250 Texas St. 70.17 251 East Carolina 70.13 252 Georgia St. 70.10 253 San Francisco 70.09 254 Nicholls St. 70.05 255 Drexel 69.91 256 Eastern Kentucky 69.89 257 Missouri Kansas City 69.87 258 Western Illinois 69.77 259 New Hampshire 69.73 260 Arkansas St. 69.64 261 Louisiana Monroe 69.63 262 San Jose St. 69.54 263 Western Carolina 69.52 264 Delaware St. 69.39 265 Mercer 69.34 266 Colorado St. 69.32 267 Stetson 69.25 268 Detroit 69.24 269 Florida International 69.08 270 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 69.06 271 Portland 69.05 272 Cal Poly 69.01 273 St. Peter's 68.99 274 Central Arkansas 68.95 275 South Dakota St. 68.91 276 Morehead St. 68.89 277 Chicago St. 68.84 278 Norfolk St. 68.84 279 Oregon St. 68.83 280 Coastal Carolina 68.70 281 Texas San Antonio 68.63 282 Harvard 68.57 283 Northwestern St. 68.43 284 Samford 68.42 285 Campbell 68.27 286 Centenary 68.21 287 Northern Illinois 67.83 288 Stony Brook 67.83 289 South Carolina Upstate 67.67 290 St. Francis NY 67.56 291 Presbyterian 67.51 292 Southern Methodist 67.45 293 Southeast Missouri St. 67.10 294 Princeton 67.10 295 Idaho 67.05 296 North Carolina A&T 67.02 297 Alabama A&M 66.94 298 Fairleigh Dickinson 66.94 299 UC Riverside 66.82 300 Idaho St. 66.78 301 Pennsylvania 66.77 302 Florida Gulf Coast 66.62 303 Southern 66.49 304 Monmouth 66.48 305 St. Francis PA 66.31 306 Florida A&M 66.29 307 Mississippi Valley St. 66.28 308 Coppin St. 66.27 309 Jackson St. 66.25 310 Radford 66.21 311 Kennesaw St. 66.15 312 Dartmouth 66.15 313 Furman 66.09 314 Bethune Cookman 65.96 315 Eastern Illinois 65.93 316 South Carolina St. 65.90 317 Charleston Southern 65.77 318 Long Beach St. 65.71 319 Savannah St. 65.65 320 Jacksonville St. 65.59 321 Rice 65.44 322 Cal St. Bakersfield 65.37 323 Winston Salem St. 65.30 324 Arkansas Pine Bluff 65.26 325 Canisius 65.06 326 UC Davis 65.05 327 Maine 64.81 328 Longwood 63.46 329 Louisiana Tech 63.42 330 Sacramento St. 62.33 331 Prairie View A&M 61.92 332 Texas Southern 61.91 333 The Citadel 61.90 334 Grambling 61.24 335 Loyola Marymount 61.14 336 Alcorn St. 61.06 337 North Florida 61.02 338 Howard 60.15 339 Maryland Eastern Shore 58.24 340 North Carolina Central 57.56 341 NJ Inst of Technology 54.87 HA = 4.59 Ratings include all games through 3/31/2008. |
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Notes: Special thanks to Ken Pomeroy for capturing all the game results and posting them on the internet. The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here. |