The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Basketball Ratings

2012 Season Ratings

 
 


 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 College Basketball. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating. At the bottom of the table there is a general home-court advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home-court advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Post Season Predicted results (and archived predictions) are available for games by date: 3/13/2012 3/14/2012 3/15/2012 3/16/2012 3/17/2012 3/18/2012 3/19/2012 3/20/2012 3/21/2012 3/22/2012 3/23/2012 3/24/2012 3/25/2012 3/26/2012 3/27/2012 3/28/2012 3/29/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 4/2/2012

Prediction Record
                 Straight-up        vs. Spread      Best Bet
                   98-46-0           69-72-3         11-7-1
	

  

                 rating    HA
Kentucky          92.32  3.71
Ohio St           91.56  2.44
Kansas            89.03  4.98
Michigan St       88.91  6.10
Vanderbilt        87.91 -1.76
Florida           87.10  0.75
Syracuse          87.09  4.87
North Carolina    87.08  6.76
Wisconsin         86.70  2.46
Missouri          86.59  3.49
Wichita St        85.77  4.82
Louisville        85.67  0.43
Memphis           85.32  6.10
Baylor            84.79  2.94
Indiana           84.16  6.68
Duke              83.73  1.51
New Mexico        83.66  6.62
Georgetown        83.40  7.50
NC State          83.29 -3.70
Belmont           83.05  3.62
Stanford          83.04  1.64
St Louis          82.96  7.11
Cincinnati        82.84  1.79
Iowa St           82.79  1.95
Gonzaga           82.79  5.38
Purdue            82.65  2.22
Kansas St         82.61  2.23
Michigan          81.80  3.20
Alabama           81.71  1.83
Florida St        81.68  4.50
St Mary's CA      81.47  1.59
Creighton         81.46  0.97
BYU               81.12  4.26
Marquette         81.08  9.20
Long Beach St     81.08  2.29
Arizona           81.05  0.12
South Florida     80.79  1.56
VA Commonwealth   80.60  1.78
Murray St         80.48  0.86
Harvard           80.35  0.37
UCLA              80.12  5.31
California        80.10  7.82
Oregon            80.00  4.10
Texas             79.98  6.55
Pittsburgh        79.92  0.64
Temple            79.88  3.46
Iona              79.87  1.55
Drexel            79.61  2.55
Middle Tenn St    79.59  2.33
Miami FL          79.35  2.38
Minnesota         79.16  1.67
New Mexico St     79.11  2.81
St Bonaventure    78.67  5.75
Xavier            78.59  4.64
Virginia          78.56  5.72
Connecticut       78.47  6.79
Ohio              78.34  4.06
San Diego St      78.18  1.45
Washington        78.16  7.08
La Salle          78.11  3.24
West Virginia     78.10  5.52
Seton Hall        77.87  3.44
Cleveland St      77.71 -0.25
Notre Dame        77.66  9.59
S Dakota St       77.29  9.57
Virginia Tech     77.13  0.70
UNLV              77.13  8.57
Dayton            77.07  6.28
Massachusetts     76.99  5.11
Davidson          76.90  7.34
St Joseph's PA    76.87  4.71
Detroit           76.79 -1.08
Colorado          76.73  4.60
Bucknell          76.68  1.72
Georgia St        76.67  5.83
Old Dominion      76.63  0.13
Buffalo           76.63  0.79
Clemson           76.60  3.99
Marshall          76.60  1.40
Southern Miss     76.59  3.52
Missouri St       76.42 -1.59
Tennessee         76.36  6.84
Lehigh            76.23  3.43
Villanova         76.16  3.00
Oregon St         76.03  3.61
Mississippi       75.87  4.48
Northwestern      75.67  5.83
Akron             75.56  6.84
Tulsa             75.53  3.38
Lamar             75.49  1.82
Santa Barbara     75.49  3.72
Mercer            75.45  4.27
Loy Marymount     75.31 -1.68
Fairfield         75.30  3.03
Illinois St       75.28  5.98
Nevada            75.19  2.54
Washington St     75.03  8.40
Wagner            74.99  0.97
Oral Roberts      74.90  2.94
Northern Iowa     74.79  4.79
Iowa              74.61  5.86
Denver            74.51  8.13
Wyoming           74.49  3.97
Princeton         74.46  6.63
Robert Morris     74.41  1.02
Butler            74.33  4.21
Illinois          74.15  7.23
San Francisco     74.09  2.12
Manhattan         74.08  1.44
Mississippi St    74.03  5.74
Richmond          73.94  5.63
George Mason      73.93  4.55
East Carolina     73.88  1.47
Loyola MD         73.73  1.57
UT Arlington      73.71  6.61
Rutgers           73.69  2.95
LSU               73.62  5.19
Evansville        73.43  3.23
Texas A&M         73.42  4.57
Vermont           73.26  6.68
Penn              73.25  1.72
SF Austin         73.08  1.29
Oklahoma St       73.08  8.91
Montana           73.05  7.23
Colorado St       72.99  9.11
UNC Asheville     72.93  6.64
UAB               72.84  2.90
Rice              72.81  0.18
Charlotte         72.49  0.32
Georgia           72.49  7.96
Georgia Tech      72.46 -4.26
Quinnipiac        72.42  2.78
Maryland          72.37  3.81
Oklahoma          72.34  7.22
Bowling Green     72.28  4.01
Kent              72.18  5.59
Stony Brook       72.17  4.15
UCF               72.06  6.87
South Carolina    72.04  1.35
Duquesne          71.96  5.35
Oakland           71.90  4.50
ETSU              71.70  4.28
Idaho             71.69  1.89
Tennessee St      71.69  0.86
Boise St          71.61  1.63
Providence        71.59  5.68
Utah St           71.52  8.15
UTEP              71.41  4.76
St John's         71.33  2.52
Ark Little Rock   71.15  0.55
Indiana St        71.14  3.88
Col Charleston    71.07  0.33
UT San Antonio    71.05 -0.34
Weber St          70.93  4.66
W Kentucky        70.82  1.12
SC Upstate        70.79  8.61
Valparaiso        70.71  5.47
Air Force         70.55 -1.92
North Texas       70.45  7.12
Nebraska          70.45  3.40
DePaul            70.41  4.84
FL Gulf Coast     70.34  2.31
Drake             70.33  6.88
San Diego         70.06 -0.12
Penn St           69.85  8.18
Long Island       69.62  6.65
Albany NY         69.54  1.02
N Dakota St       69.50  4.37
G Washington      69.44  4.32
Youngstown St     69.41  6.39
Arkansas St       69.38  2.80
Rhode Island      69.35  1.01
Yale              69.23  6.82
USC               69.16 -2.47
Florida Intl      69.12 -3.84
Boston Univ       69.12  3.65
Auburn            69.11  8.03
W Michigan        69.10  3.15
CS Fullerton      69.04  6.27
Fresno St         69.00  3.70
Lipscomb          69.00 -0.87
ULL               68.95  0.20
Delaware          68.89  6.60
Arkansas          68.81 10.13
WI Milwaukee      68.80  8.72
Northeastern      68.79  2.77
Coastal Car       68.77  2.20
American Univ     68.77  5.48
Norfolk St        68.72 -0.45
Louisiana Tech    68.70  5.66
Miami OH          68.57  2.95
SMU               68.50  2.59
Columbia          68.46  3.65
St Francis NY     68.46  1.48
IUPUI             68.42  3.47
W Illinois        68.34  4.77
NC Central        68.25  0.46
Morehead St       68.16  4.39
Savannah St       68.11  8.16
Tennessee Tech    68.09  2.26
FL Atlantic       68.09  0.69
E Washington      68.04  0.24
WI Green Bay      68.03  6.11
Charleston So     68.02  5.95
North Florida     67.96  4.50
McNeese St        67.78  2.58
Sacred Heart      67.74 -0.48
Jacksonville      67.64  0.03
Jacksonville St   67.63  6.03
Cal Poly SLO      67.61  9.56
Portland St       67.35  3.94
Toledo            67.24  5.22
Ball St           67.20  3.32
TCU               67.18 10.55
Hawaii            66.99  3.08
UC Irvine         66.95 -0.73
Presbyterian      66.95 -0.87
Seattle           66.76  5.11
Rider             66.76  6.86
Cornell           66.61  5.65
Austin Peay       66.58  3.38
Southern Utah     66.52  2.16
Niagara           66.47  1.35
Lafayette         66.42  2.52
Arizona St        66.42  5.27
Furman            66.29  2.06
W Carolina        66.28  3.14
Loyola-Chicago    66.20 -3.12
South Alabama     65.92  6.06
SE Missouri St    65.90  6.21
Wright St         65.69  6.16
Wake Forest       65.68  5.79
MS Valley St      65.67  2.58
Central Conn      65.66  6.99
Utah Val St       65.58  6.15
Hofstra           65.43  6.87
James Madison     65.43  2.44
Houston           65.40  9.18
N Colorado        65.37 -0.49
CS Bakersfield    65.25  4.56
Siena             65.21  6.48
Wofford           65.16 11.74
Northwestern LA   65.16  5.52
Delaware St       65.13  3.33
UNC Wilmington    65.05  3.95
Texas Tech        65.04  4.08
Ga Southern       65.03  5.69
Sam Houston St    64.91  0.30
Tulane            64.91  8.68
Stetson           64.90  3.62
High Point        64.87  6.44
Winthrop          64.64  2.56
Gardner Webb      64.50  2.17
Portland          64.49 -0.35
Bethune-Cookman   64.46  3.90
Samford           64.40  2.59
Holy Cross        64.27  8.20
VMI               64.27  3.77
C Michigan        64.25  2.51
Elon              64.17  4.47
Coppin St         64.09  0.17
Missouri KC       64.08 -1.43
Maine             64.06  1.34
Troy              64.05  2.45
Appalachian St    64.02  5.30
San Jose St       63.89  3.33
Liberty           63.88  2.68
Hampton           63.85 -0.15
UNC Greensboro    63.84  2.74
UC Riverside      63.80  1.83
Santa Clara       63.75  2.58
S Illinois        63.60  8.45
Morgan St         63.56  2.20
E Kentucky        63.54  1.46
Texas St          63.51  6.64
North Dakota      63.24  8.49
Boston College    63.23  5.38
Dartmouth         63.11  0.09
Chattanooga       63.07  5.58
IPFW              62.92  4.11
Bradley           62.76  3.42
Marist            62.62  8.38
Campbell          62.53  8.27
IL Chicago        62.32  2.61
E Michigan        62.28  6.97
TX Southern       62.18  8.80
CS Sacramento     62.18  2.46
New Hampshire     62.05  3.45
Pacific           62.04  5.47
Mt St Mary's      62.02  2.71
William & Mary    62.01  5.62
CS Northridge     61.74  0.82
Pepperdine        61.67  6.06
Hartford          61.64  2.13
E Illinois        61.58 -0.07
Army              61.56  2.03
South Dakota      61.24  5.94
ULM               61.23 -2.41
Fordham           60.95  8.27
Edwardsville      60.83  1.63
Monmouth NJ       60.75  9.94
SE Louisiana      60.49  4.19
Idaho St          60.26  1.91
Florida A&M       60.21 -1.03
Canisius          60.16 -1.00
Montana St        60.09  5.66
Radford           59.92  1.17
NC A&T            59.92  5.84
TAM C. Christi    59.75  3.26
Kennesaw          59.53 -0.06
NJIT              59.33  9.81
St Peter's        58.85 -0.55
Utah              58.81  8.87
Colgate           58.58  2.13
Alabama St        58.51  1.34
Ark Pine Bluff    58.46  0.96
Citadel           58.44  3.59
TX Pan American   58.41  4.80
Navy              58.17  1.36
Howard            57.84  3.21
Brown             57.84  5.66
F Dickinson       57.61 -0.70
Prairie View      57.51  1.31
N Illinois        57.02  3.43
Bryant            56.96 -2.55
Jackson St        56.78 -0.03
Chicago St        56.51  0.56
Houston Bap       56.48  5.89
Southern Univ     56.47  6.74
St Francis PA     56.41  8.46
Towson            55.91  2.19
Binghamton        55.86 -1.31
NE Omaha          55.45  2.60
Alcorn St         55.39  4.93
UC Davis          55.25  6.97
MD E Shore        55.24  3.96
Cent Arkansas     54.99  6.49
TN Martin         54.75  2.58
MD Baltimore Co   54.73 -0.35
Alabama A&M       54.59  3.44
Northern Arizona  52.91  4.41
Nicholls St       52.17 10.95
S Carolina St     51.91  3.83
Longwood          49.81 10.17
Grambling         49.72  1.35



Ratings include all games through 3/31/2012.






Notes: Special thanks to Ken Massey for capturing all the game results and posting them on the internet. Big raspberry to Ken Pomeroy for trying to charge for the data. The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net