The Dr. K. NFL Football Forecasts

Week 9

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The small numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page. 


     Baltimore (O 50.5)                30
     Miami (+7.5)                      26          0.6022     0.5978     0.6327     

     Atlanta (+5.5)                    17
     New England (U 45.5)              21          0.6004     0.5585     0.6343     

     LA Chargers (-10.5)               27
     Tennessee (U 43.5)                16          0.7946     0.5244     0.5424     

     Chicago (O 52.5)                  26
     Cincinnati (+2.5)                 28          0.5446     0.6114     0.5292     

     Indianapolis (O 50.5)             28
     Pittsburgh (+3.5)                 27          0.5099     0.5845     0.6034     

     San Francisco (-2.5)              24
     NY Giants (U 48.5)                20          0.6197     0.5498     0.6245     

     Denver (U 39.5)                   17
     Houston (-1.5)                    20          0.6003     0.5564     0.6091     

     Minnesota (O 47.5)                20
     Detroit (-8.5)                    32          0.7998     0.5975     0.5873     

*****************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Point Spread
*    Carolina (U 44.5)                 14
*    Green Bay (-12.5)                 31          0.8908     0.6280     0.5104     
*****************************************************************************************

     Jacksonville (U 44.5)             21
     Las Vegas (+3.5)                  19          0.5452     0.5563     0.6099     

*****************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    New Orleans (+13.5)               13
*    LA Rams (U 44.5)                  24          0.7908     0.5755     0.6599     
*****************************************************************************************

     Kansas City (U 51.5)              23
     Buffalo (+1.5)                    25          0.5671     0.6085     0.6147     

     Seattle (O 46.5)                  27
     Washington (+3.5)                 24          0.5817     0.5142     0.6068     

     Arizona (+2.5)                    28
     Dallas (O 54.5)                   30          0.5523     0.5147     0.5552     



                      Straight-up              vs. Spread                Over/Under
Last Week          10-3-0      0.769         7-6-0      0.539          8-5-0     0.615
Season             77-43-1     0.641        58-63-0     0.479         60-61-0    0.496


                             Best Bet vs Spread         Best Bet vs O/U
Last Week                    0-1-0        0.000         1-0-0     1.000
Season                       3-5-0        0.375         4-4-0     0.500
Email:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by value)"

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To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To examine this year's results, week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8

To check out the NCAA page click here.

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.