The Dr. K. NFL Football Forecasts

Week 4

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The small numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page. 

********************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Point Spread
*    Detroit (O 45.5)                  21
*    Green Bay (+1.5)                  28          0.6820     0.7201     0.5713     
********************************************************************************

     Atlanta (+2.5)                    20
     Jacksonville (U 43.5)             21          0.5163     0.5614     0.5851     

     Miami (O 53.5)                    23
     Buffalo (-2.5)                    33          0.7548     0.6968     0.5290     

     Minnesota (O 45.5)                26
     Carolina (+3.5)                   24          0.5601     0.5406     0.5761     

     Denver (O 45.5)                   23
     Chicago (+3.5)                    24          0.5172     0.6170     0.5565     

     Baltimore (U 41.5)                17
     Cleveland (-2.5)                  21          0.6290     0.5504     0.5968     

     Pittsburgh (-3)                   23
     Houston (U 41)                    20          0.5961     0.5031     0.5136     

     LA Rams (+1.5)                    24
     Indianapolis (U 45.5)             20          0.6182     0.6621     0.5763     

********************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    Tampa Bay (+3)                    17
*    New Orleans (U 39.5)              16          0.5210     0.6220     0.6716     
********************************************************************************

     Washington (O 45.5)               17
     Philadelphia (-8.5)               28          0.7961     0.5744     0.5120     

     Cincinnati (-2.5)                 21
     Tennessee (U 42.5)                17          0.6271     0.5487     0.6068     

     Las Vegas (+5.5)                  23
     LA Chargers (O 47.5)              28          0.6382     0.5150     0.5875     

     New England (+6.5)                16
     Dallas (U 42.5)                   23          0.6954     0.5048     0.6043     

     Arizona (+14.5)                   17
     San Francisco (O 43.5)            30          0.8197     0.5676     0.5734     

     Kansas City (U 42.5)              23
     NY Jets (+9.5)                    16          0.7074     0.5895     0.6297     

     Seattle (+1.5)                    28
     NY Giants (O 46.5)                23          0.6345     0.6747     0.5960     



                      Straight-up              vs. Spread              Over/Under
Last Week          12-4-0      0.750         7-9-0     0.438          11-5-0    0.688
Season             31-17-0     0.646        29-19-0    0.604          32-16-0   0.667


                             Best Bet vs Spread         Best Bet vs O/U
Last Week                    1-0-0        1.000         0-1-0     0.000
Season                       2-1-0        0.667         1-2-0     0.333
Email:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by value)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by value)"

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To examine previous weeks results, week 1 week 2 week 3

To check out the NCAA page click here.

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.