The Dr. K. NFL Football Forecasts2008 Divisional Playoffs |
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The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings . The numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The last 2 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. Click for an statistical view of the US Presidential Election |
Arizona 20
Carolina (-9.5) 34 0.8397 0.6136
San Diego 16
Pittsburgh (-6) 24 0.7466 0.5742
Philadelphia (+5) 20
NY Giants 24 0.6179 0.5351
Baltimore 16
Tennessee (-3) 20 0.6133 0.5163
Record
Straight-up vs. Spread Best Bet
Last Week 2-2-0 0.500 3-1-0 0.750 0-1-0 0.000
Season* 170-89-1 0.656 132-123-5 0.517 7-10-1 0.417
*Records include predictions for week 3 (games of the week of Sept 21) though the predictions
were not posted due to complications from Hurricane Ike. The record for that week were 12-4
SU, 9-7 ATS, and 1-0 BB.
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Email:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net
To take a look at the underlying rankings click here. To examine previous weeks results: week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9 week 10 week 11 week 12 week 13 week 14 week 15 week 16 week 17 week 18 To check out the NCAA page click here. Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here. |
