The Dr. K. NFL Football ForecastsWeek 9 |
The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings . The results are sorted by start time. The small numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O. The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under. Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.
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Houston (U 42.5) 20 NY Jets (-1.5) 22 0.5603 0.5135 0.5535 ***************************************************************************************** * Best Bet against the Point Spread * Miami (U 49.5) 14 * Buffalo (-6.5) 30 0.8803 0.7498 0.6507 ***************************************************************************************** Dallas (+2.5) 27 Atlanta (U 52.5) 24 0.5869 0.6546 0.5580 New Orleans (-7) 30 Carolina (O 44.5) 17 0.8269 0.6611 0.5461 Las Vegas (+7.5) 21 Cincinnati (O 46.5) 27 0.6660 0.5456 0.5537 Denver (+9.5) 19 Baltimore (O 44.5) 28 0.7391 0.5284 0.5158 Washington (-3.5) 23 NY Giants (U 43.5) 17 0.6731 0.5680 0.5898 ***************************************************************************************** * Best Bet against the Over/Under * LA Chargers (-2) 19 * Cleveland (U 42.5) 16 0.5955 0.5289 0.7196 ***************************************************************************************** New England (+3.5) 17 Tennessee (U 38) 19 0.5736 0.5413 0.5551 Jacksonville (O 45.5) 21 Philadelphia (-7.5) 30 0.7349 0.5338 0.5918 Chicago (+1.5) 22 Arizona (U 44.5) 21 0.5006 0.5466 0.5522 Detroit (O 47.5) 26 Green Bay (+3.5) 27 0.5181 0.6145 0.6210 LA Rams (U 48.5) 23 Seattle (+1.5) 24 0.5513 0.5944 0.5390 Indianapolis (O 45.5) 20 Minnesota (-5.5) 27 0.6969 0.5424 0.5121 Tampa Bay (+9.5) 21 Kansas City (O 44.5) 26 0.6344 0.6430 0.5112 \ Straight-up vs. Spread Over/Under Last Week 8-8-0 0.500 11-5-0 0.688 6-10-0 0.375 Season 71-52-0 0.577 66-57-0 0.537 62-61-0 0.504 Best Bet vs Spread Best Bet vs O/U Last Week 0-1-0 0.000 0-1-0 0.000 Season 4-4-0 0.500 1-7-0 0.125 |
Email:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net
"Points spread page (sorted by value)" "Over/Under page (sorted by value)" To take a look at the underlying rankings click here. To examine this year's results, week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 To check out the NCAA page click here. Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here. |