The Dr. K. NFL Football Forecasts

Week 2

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The small numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page. 


     Atlanta (U 44.5)                  17
     Green Bay (-6.5)                  28          0.7950     0.6374     0.5055     

     Kansas City (U 46.5)              26
     Miami (+11.5)                     20          0.6541     0.6690     0.5688     

     Carolina (O 42.5)                 21
     Cleveland (+2.5)                  23          0.5579     0.6278     0.5199     

     Tennessee (O 40.5)                16
     NY Giants (-3.5)                  24          0.7200     0.6275     0.5267     

*****************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    New England (U 45.5)              17
*    Jacksonville (-2.5)               20          0.5752     0.5009     0.6590     
*****************************************************************************************

     LA Chargers (O 50.5)              21
     Buffalo (-7.5)                    33          0.7894     0.6126     0.5704     

*****************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Point Spread
*    NY Jets (O 48.5)                  20
*    Detroit (-6.5)                    35          0.8571     0.7302     0.5676     
*****************************************************************************************

     Houston (O 43.5)                  26
     Indianapolis (+2.5)               25          0.5372     0.5332     0.6407     

     Seattle (-6.5)                    31
     Washington (O 40.5)               16          0.8574     0.7238     0.5670     

     Cincinnati (O 42.5)               24
     Pittsburgh (+3.5)                 23          0.5255     0.5758     0.5407     

     Arizona (U 48)                    17
     San Francisco (-8.5)              27          0.7586     0.5350     0.5555     

     Minnesota (+1.5)                  24
     Tampa Bay (U 42.5)                19          0.6351     0.6757     0.5615     

     Baltimore (-2.5)                  35
     Dallas (O 52.5)                   26          0.7310     0.6727     0.6236     

     Las Vegas (U 43.5)                17
     New Orleans (-3.5)                21          0.6210     0.5189     0.6212     

     LA Rams (U 45.5)                  21
     Denver (+2.5)                     20          0.5251     0.5491     0.6477     

     Philadelphia (O 44.5)             24
     Chicago (+3.5)                    26          0.5473     0.6432     0.5491     



                      Straight-up              vs. Spread                Over/Under
Last Week           9-7-0      0.563        5-11-0     0.313          7-9-0       0.438
Season             18-14-0     0.563       11-21-0     0.344         15-17-0      0.469


                             Best Bet vs Spread         Best Bet vs O/U
Last Week                    0-1-0        0.000         1-0-0     1.000
Season                       1-1-0        0.500         1-1-0     0.500
Email:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by value)"

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To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To examine this year's results, week 1 week 2

To check out the NCAA page click here.

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.