The Dr. K. NFL Football Forecasts

Week 2

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The small numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page. 

     Washington (U 48.5)               20
     Green Bay (-3.5)                  28          0.7042     0.6133     0.5405     

     LA Rams (-5.5)                    23
     Tennessee (U 41.5)                17          0.6742     0.5163     0.5968     

     Jacksonville (U 49.5)             20
     Cincinnati (-3.5)                 27          0.6850     0.5913     0.5749     

*****************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Point Spread
*    Cleveland (O 44.5)                16
*    Baltimore (-10.5)                 35          0.9069     0.7169     0.5657     
*****************************************************************************************

*****************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    Buffalo (-6.5)                    35
*    NY Jets (O 46.5)                  26          0.7255     0.5637     0.7503     
*****************************************************************************************

     New England (U 43.5)              17
     Miami (-1.5)                      23          0.6811     0.6401     0.6281     

     San Francisco (U 41.5)            23
     New Orleans (+4.5)                20          0.6026     0.5284     0.5354     

     NY Giants (U 44.5)                13
     Dallas (-5.5)                     21          0.7230     0.5704     0.6792     

     Chicago (O 46.5)                  17
     Detroit (-5.5)                    31          0.8315     0.7156     0.5192     

     Seattle (O 39.5)                  19
     Pittsburgh (-2.5)                 24          0.6551     0.5860     0.5621     

     Denver (O 42.5)                   22
     Indianapolis (+2.5)               21          0.5268     0.5454     0.5014     

     Carolina (U 45.5)                 17
     Arizona (-6.5)                    30          0.8289     0.6864     0.5010     

     Philadelphia (U 46.5)             24
     Kansas City (+1.5)                23          0.5310     0.5114     0.5338     

     Atlanta (O 45.5)                  20
     Minnesota (-4.5)                  28          0.7111     0.5939     0.5333     

     Tampa Bay (+2.5)                  23
     Houston (U 42.5)                  20          0.5976     0.6660     0.5157     

     LA Chargers (-3.5)                26
     Las Vegas (U 46.5)                20          0.6586     0.5613     0.5697     


                      Straight-up              vs. Spread                Over/Under
Last Week          13-3-0      0.813         9-7-0     0.563           5-11-0    0.313
Season             13-3-0      0.813         9-7-0     0.563           5-11-0    0.313


                             Best Bet vs Spread         Best Bet vs O/U
Last Week                    0-1-0        0.000         0-1-0     0.000
Season                       0-1-0        0.000         0-1-0     0.000
Email:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by value)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by value)"

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To examine this year's results, week 1

To check out the NCAA page click here.

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.