The Dr. K. NFL Football Forecasts

Week 9

 


The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The small numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

     Houston (U 42.5)                  20
     NY Jets (-1.5)                    22          0.5603     0.5135     0.5535     

*****************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Point Spread
*    Miami (U 49.5)                    14
*    Buffalo (-6.5)                    30          0.8803     0.7498     0.6507     
*****************************************************************************************

     Dallas (+2.5)                     27
     Atlanta (U 52.5)                  24          0.5869     0.6546     0.5580     

     New Orleans (-7)                  30
     Carolina (O 44.5)                 17          0.8269     0.6611     0.5461     

     Las Vegas (+7.5)                  21
     Cincinnati (O 46.5)               27          0.6660     0.5456     0.5537     

     Denver (+9.5)                     19
     Baltimore (O 44.5)                28          0.7391     0.5284     0.5158     

     Washington (-3.5)                 23
     NY Giants (U 43.5)                17          0.6731     0.5680     0.5898     

*****************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    LA Chargers (-2)                  19
*    Cleveland (U 42.5)                16          0.5955     0.5289     0.7196     
*****************************************************************************************

     New England (+3.5)                17
     Tennessee (U 38)                  19          0.5736     0.5413     0.5551     

     Jacksonville (O 45.5)             21
     Philadelphia (-7.5)               30          0.7349     0.5338     0.5918     

     Chicago (+1.5)                    22
     Arizona (U 44.5)                  21          0.5006     0.5466     0.5522     

     Detroit (O 47.5)                  26
     Green Bay (+3.5)                  27          0.5181     0.6145     0.6210     

     LA Rams (U 48.5)                  23
     Seattle (+1.5)                    24          0.5513     0.5944     0.5390     

     Indianapolis (O 45.5)             20
     Minnesota (-5.5)                  27          0.6969     0.5424     0.5121     

     Tampa Bay (+9.5)                  21
     Kansas City (O 44.5)              26          0.6344     0.6430     0.5112     \


                      Straight-up              vs. Spread                Over/Under
Last Week           8-8-0      0.500        11-5-0     0.688           6-10-0    0.375
Season             71-52-0     0.577        66-57-0    0.537          62-61-0    0.504


                             Best Bet vs Spread         Best Bet vs O/U
Last Week                    0-1-0        0.000         0-1-0     0.000
Season                       4-4-0        0.500         1-7-0     0.125		
Email:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by value)"

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To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To examine this year's results, week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8

To check out the NCAA page click here.

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.