The Dr. Edward Kambour NFL Football Ratings2011 Season Ratings |
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Below are the ratings for NFL football. The first column is the team, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings. Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here. |
Rating HomeAd
New England 81.6674 2.3142
Green Bay 79.7425 3.4869
New Orleans 76.4305 7.6007
Baltimore 76.3032 4.7208
Philadelphia 75.2353 0.9615
NY Giants 75.2271 -1.2744
Houston 75.0698 2.0844
San Francisco 74.5696 5.5981
Pittsburgh 73.5359 7.1184
Detroit 72.7409 5.4735
NY Jets 72.4496 4.1340
Miami 72.2726 1.2702
San Diego 71.9618 5.6112
Atlanta 71.7795 4.3082
Chicago 71.3135 3.1696
Dallas 70.2706 3.0609
Tennessee 70.1327 1.5632
Cincinnati 69.2115 1.7542
Carolina 68.2235 0.3386
Oakland 68.2002 0.3153
Seattle 67.7416 3.9395
Washington 66.6297 1.8588
Buffalo 65.9519 5.5998
Denver 65.7082 1.4685
Cleveland 65.6377 1.4779
Minnesota 65.4228 2.0813
Kansas City 65.1192 0.7732
Jacksonville 64.7642 2.3225
Arizona 64.5092 4.5839
Tampa Bay 61.4675 1.7371
Indianapolis 60.9829 2.8427
St Louis 58.9837 4.4005
Note: Ratings include games through 1/22/12.
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Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here. Email:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net |