The Dr. Edward Kambour NFL Football Ratings

2011 Season Ratings

Below are the ratings for NFL football. The first column is the team, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here. 

  

                        Rating  HomeAd
     New England       81.6674  2.3142
     Green Bay         79.7425  3.4869
     New Orleans       76.4305  7.6007
     Baltimore         76.3032  4.7208
     Philadelphia      75.2353  0.9615
     NY Giants         75.2271 -1.2744
     Houston           75.0698  2.0844
     San Francisco     74.5696  5.5981
     Pittsburgh        73.5359  7.1184
     Detroit           72.7409  5.4735
     NY Jets           72.4496  4.1340
     Miami             72.2726  1.2702
     San Diego         71.9618  5.6112
     Atlanta           71.7795  4.3082
     Chicago           71.3135  3.1696
     Dallas            70.2706  3.0609
     Tennessee         70.1327  1.5632
     Cincinnati        69.2115  1.7542
     Carolina          68.2235  0.3386
     Oakland           68.2002  0.3153
     Seattle           67.7416  3.9395
     Washington        66.6297  1.8588
     Buffalo           65.9519  5.5998
     Denver            65.7082  1.4685
     Cleveland         65.6377  1.4779
     Minnesota         65.4228  2.0813
     Kansas City       65.1192  0.7732
     Jacksonville      64.7642  2.3225
     Arizona           64.5092  4.5839
     Tampa Bay         61.4675  1.7371
     Indianapolis      60.9829  2.8427
     St Louis          58.9837  4.4005


Note: Ratings include games through 1/22/12.

Betting and sports such as football have always been closely associated with each other, since the game was first invented, the ideology of placing money on a “winning” team was not only a popular one, but a revolutionary one. As of now in the modern age, along with the boom of the internet came an explosion of different styles of betting, from Online Bookies, to casino gambling, all of them of course serve as the gateway to huge prizes should you be lucky enough to win something!

Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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