The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

Week 5

 
 
 

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The small numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

     

     Appalachian St (U 62)             14
     Georgia So (-16.5)                42          0.9253     0.7224     0.6415     

     Texas Tech (O 71)                 23
     Oklahoma St (-13.5)               53          0.9470     0.8103     0.5816     

*******************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Point Spread
*    UCLA (O 64.5)                     28
*    Arizona St (+5)                   40          0.7533     0.8329     0.5561     
*******************************************************************************

     Fresno St (-5.5)                  46
     New Mexico (O 76)                 34          0.7360     0.6302     0.5607     

     Middle Tenn St (+3)               32
     Old Dominion (U 66.5)             30          0.5457     0.6092     0.6168     

     Iowa (-10.5)                      33
     Purdue (U 46.5)                   14          0.8908     0.7119     0.5328     

     TCU (U 48)                        34
     SMU (+31.5)                       13          0.9030     0.7431     0.5604     

     South Florida (O 46)              6
     Wisconsin (-33)                   44          0.9911     0.6165     0.5683     

     Wyoming (+30)                     10
     Michigan St (O 45)                40          0.9694     0.5014     0.5992     

     Texas-El Paso (U 68.5)            10
     Kansas St (-27)                   47          0.9860     0.7134     0.7507     

     Tennessee (O 53.5)                21
     Georgia (-17)                     42          0.8837     0.5827     0.7187     

     Vanderbilt (+17)                  23
     Kentucky (O 49)                   28          0.6185     0.7712     0.5327     

     Northwestern (+11)                17
     Penn St (U 44.5)                  27          0.7297     0.5367     0.5231     

     Tulane (U 58.5)                   17
     Rutgers (-11.5)                   31          0.7982     0.5493     0.6841     

     W Michigan (U 53.5)               10
     Virginia Tech (-24.5)             40          0.9688     0.6303     0.5991     

     Colorado St (U 60.5)              26
     Boston College (-6.5)             34          0.6789     0.5321     0.5646     

     Maryland (U 71.5)                 33
     Indiana (-4)                      41          0.6750     0.5927     0.5030     

     Akron (O 46.5)                    13
     Pittsburgh (-20)                  37          0.9293     0.5905     0.5568     

     Bowling Green (-7)                35
     Massachusetts (U 61)              17          0.8610     0.7448     0.6730     

     Minnesota (+10)                   20
     Michigan (O 43.5)                 26          0.6391     0.6141     0.5084     

     Arkansas (U 77)                   26
     Texas A&M (-9.5)                  44          0.8386     0.6738     0.6627     

     W Kentucky (+7)                   31
     Navy (U 70)                       28          0.5708     0.7239     0.7296     

     Florida Intl (O 53)               20
     UAB (-16.5)                       38          0.8514     0.5357     0.6402     

     Kent St (+22)                     14
     Virginia (U 47)                   34          0.8903     0.5651     0.5089     

     Wake Forest (O 34)                9
     Louisville (-21)                  31          0.9255     0.5237     0.6540     

     Miami Oh (U 61.5)                 17
     Buffalo (-6)                      35          0.8570     0.7580     0.7233     

     Colorado (U 69)                   27
     California (-10.5)                40          0.7633     0.5461     0.5960     

     Stanford (U 49.5)                 24
     Washington (+7.5)                 17          0.6670     0.5206     0.6767     

     Temple (-4)                       28
     Connecticut (O 47.5)              21          0.6657     0.5708     0.5067     

     Louisiana Tech (+32.5)            17
     Auburn (O 63)                     48          0.9623     0.5474     0.5152     

     Texas (-14)                       30
     Kansas (O 39)                     12          0.8721     0.5890     0.5431     

     S Alabama (-6)                    33
     Idaho (U 68)                      23          0.7169     0.5865     0.7520     

     UTSA (-5)                         27
     Florida Atl (U 46)                16          0.7645     0.6539     0.5954     

     Cincinnati (O 55.5)               21
     Ohio St (-14.5)                   44          0.9064     0.6885     0.7100     

     Rice (-10)                        35
     Southern Miss (U 62)              20          0.8119     0.6119     0.6249     

     C Michigan (O 53)                 21
     Toledo (-14.5)                    41          0.8734     0.6158     0.6898     

*******************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    Missouri (+6)                     27
*    South Carolina (U 69)             28          0.5144     0.6291     0.7757     
*******************************************************************************

     Boise St (-12.5)                  42
     Air Force (U 61.5)                20          0.9058     0.7177     0.5687     

     Troy (+10.5)                      23
     UL Monroe (U 58.5)                33          0.7191     0.5212     0.5826     

     Memphis (U 52.5)                  14
     Mississippi (-18.5)               38          0.9241     0.6174     0.5349     

     New Mexico St (O 61)              7
     LSU (-43)                         58          0.9986     0.6782     0.5940     

     UNLV (U 68)                       21
     San Diego St (-16)                40          0.8639     0.5627     0.6998     

     Notre Dame (-12)                  28
     Syracuse (U 54)                   14          0.8104     0.5434     0.7379     

     Texas St (+4.5)                   27
     Tulsa (U 67.5)                    31          0.5805     0.5229     0.6721     

     Baylor (U 73)                     47
     Iowa St (+21.5)                   26          0.8722     0.5162     0.5225     

     Washington St (U 67.5)            23
     Utah (-10)                        35          0.7591     0.5425     0.7414     

     Illinois (U 66)                   20
     Nebraska (-18)                    45          0.9211     0.6464     0.5049     

     Oregon St (+11)                   21
     USC (U 61.5)                      28          0.6666     0.5952     0.7222     

     Nevada (O 63)                     34
     San Jose St (+4.5)                31          0.5660     0.5354     0.5140     

     Florida St (-21.5)                45
     NC State (U 64)                   14          0.9642     0.7030     0.5983     

     North Carolina (O 60)             23
     Clemson (-13.5)                   44          0.8816     0.6652     0.6302     

     Duke (+5)                         34
     Miami Fl (O 54)                   33          0.5238     0.6360     0.7252     



2013 Record
                    Straight-up                  vs. Spread                Over/Under 
Last Week        34-8-0      0.810            25-17-0    0.593          22-20-0    0.524
Season          132-37-0     0.781            77-90-2    0.462         102-66-1    0.607
 
                                        
                            Best Bet (Spread)         Best Bet (Over/Under)         
Last Week                     0-1-0   0.000               0-1-0  0.000            
Season                        0-4-0   0.000               3-1-0  0.750           

      
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)"

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous weeks predictions: week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4

To check out the NFL page click here.

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.