The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

Week 14

 
 
 

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

    

     W Michigan (U 57)                 38
     Ohio (+19)                        20          0.8777     0.5234     0.5568     

********************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    Colorado (U 58)                   21
*    Washington (-7.5)                 30          0.7301     0.5465     0.7173     
********************************************************************************************

     Temple (U 62)                     24
     Navy (-3)                         31          0.6597     0.5883     0.6313     

     Louisiana Tech (U 80)             31
     W Kentucky (-10)                  45          0.7962     0.5993     0.5757     

     Kansas St (O 52.5)                24
     TCU (-4.5)                        31          0.6596     0.5509     0.5852     

     Troy (U 54.5)                     27
     Georgia So (+7)                   26          0.5165     0.6537     0.5399     

     Oklahoma St (+11)                 31
     Oklahoma (U 77.5)                 42          0.7347     0.5038     0.5658     

     New Mexico St (O 57.5)            26
     S Alabama (-11.5)                 38          0.7650     0.5079     0.5907     

     Baylor (+17)                      28
     West Virginia (U 66.5)            37          0.7082     0.6842     0.5333     

     UL Lafayette (-7)                 34
     UL Monroe (U 59)                  23          0.7462     0.5879     0.6063     

     Alabama (U 40)                    28
     Florida (+24)                      9          0.9088     0.6432     0.5686     

********************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Point Spread
*    Georgia St (+6.5)                 30
*    Idaho (O 53)                      28          0.5530     0.7030     0.6218     
********************************************************************************************

     Arkansas St (-23)                 42
     Texas St (O 53.5)                 17          0.9405     0.5510     0.6488     

     San Diego St (-7)                 34
     Wyoming (U 62.5)                  23          0.7595     0.6024     0.6193     

     Penn St (U 46.5)                  17
     Wisconsin (-1.5)                  24          0.6757     0.6378     0.6127     

     Clemson (-10)                     33
     Virginia Tech (U 58)              21          0.7772     0.5466     0.6150     




2016 Record
                    Straight-up                  vs. Spread                Over/Under 
Last Week        39-22-0     0.639            27-34-0     0.443         27-34-0    0.443
Season          516-186-0    0.735           338-353-11   0.489        329-364-9   0.475
 
                                        
                             Best Bet (Spread)         Best Bet (Over/Under)         
Last Week                     1-0-0     1.000             1-0-0     1.000            
Season                        5-7-1     0.423             5-7-1     0.423           
      
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)"

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous weeks predictions: week1 week2 week3 week4 week5 week6 week7 week8 week9 week10 week11 week12 week13

.

To check out the NFL page click here.

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.