The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

Week 5

 
 
 

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

   
     Utah St (+23.5)                   20
     BYU (U 61.5)                      40          0.8754     0.5725     0.5638     

     Tulane (O 54.5)                   28
     Houston (-2.5)                    33          0.6042     0.5492     0.6060     

     UTSA (U 63.5)                     33
     Middle Tenn St (+5.5)             30          0.5754     0.5450     0.5330     

     San Diego St (O 39.5)             17
     Boise St (-3.5)                   21          0.6000     0.5149     0.5113     

     Washington (U 64.5)               29
     UCLA (+2.5)                       31          0.5362     0.5906     0.6022     

     New Mexico (+15.5)                17
     UNLV (O 44.5)                     30          0.7810     0.5584     0.5831     

     Illinois (U 43.5)                 17
     Wisconsin (-7.5)                  26          0.7004     0.5232     0.5691     

     Louisville (U 51.5)               33
     Boston College (+15.5)            21          0.7541     0.5883     0.5021     

     Georgia St (+9.5)                 23
     Army (U 57.5)                     31          0.6698     0.5423     0.5713     

     Purdue (U 53.5)                   20
     Minnesota (-10.5)                 31          0.7385     0.5096     0.5588     

     Navy (O 37.5)                     13
     Air Force (-15)                   31          0.8609     0.5695     0.6678     

     Temple (O 53.5)                   16
     Memphis (-20.5)                   40          0.9162     0.5726     0.5193     

     Kentucky (O 54.5)                 24
     Mississippi (-6.5)                31          0.6610     0.5168     0.5032     

     Texas Tech (U 57.5)               24
     Kansas St (-7.5)                  33          0.6907     0.5265     0.5683     

     Oklahoma (-6.5)                   38
     TCU (U 67.5)                      30          0.6660     0.5309     0.5291     

     Michigan (U 42.5)                 24
     Iowa (+10.5)                      17          0.6739     0.5786     0.5169     

     Texas St (+21.5)                  20
     James Madison (O 53.5)            38          0.8446     0.5728     0.5543     

     N Illinois (-3.5)                 34
     Ball St (O 60.5)                  30          0.5919     0.5149     0.5172     

     Massachusetts (O 56.5)            19
     E Michigan (-20.5)                45          0.9253     0.6202     0.6496     

     Oregon St (O 56.5)                21
     Utah (-10.5)                      34          0.7618     0.5460     0.5008     

     Northwestern (U 52.5)             9
     Penn St (-25.5)                   35          0.9437     0.5061     0.6738     

     Wake Forest (+6.5)                33
     Florida St (O 66)                 38          0.6003     0.5356     0.6021     

     Michigan St (+7.5)                28
     Maryland (U 60.5)                 29          0.5326     0.6369     0.5933     

************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    Virginia Tech (O 50.5)            26
*    North Carolina (-8.5)             38          0.7378     0.5670     0.7718     
************************************************************************************

     SMU (+3.5)                        33
     C Florida (O 65.5)                34          0.5238     0.5520     0.5202     

     Oklahoma St (+2.5)                25
     Baylor (U 54.5)                   26          0.5066     0.5515     0.6033     

     Iowa St (-3.5)                    37
     Kansas (O 58)                     24          0.7616     0.6973     0.5674     

     Rutgers (+41)                     10
     Ohio St (O 59.5)                  49          0.9865     0.5551     0.5134     

     Alabama (-16.5)                   40
     Arkansas (O 61.5)                 21          0.8603     0.5621     0.5057     

     C Michigan (+7.5)                 30
     Toledo (O 58.5)                   33          0.5730     0.5908     0.5759     

     Miami Oh (O 53.5)                 27
     Buffalo (+1.5)                    28          0.5282     0.5620     0.5120     

     Fresno St (-23.5)                 42
     Connecticut (O 56.5)              16          0.9292     0.5536     0.5019     

     Bowling Green (-6.5)              33
     Akron (U 52.5)                    21          0.7587     0.6276     0.5219     

     Ohio (U 68.5)                     28
     Kent St (-8.5)                    38          0.7002     0.5256     0.5617     

     Georgia So (U 64.5)               21
     C Carolina (-10.5)                37          0.8094     0.6114     0.6217     

     Texas A&M (+2.5)                  21
     Mississippi St (U 45.5)           22          0.5194     0.5420     0.5600     

     Florida Atl (-3.5)                31
     North Texas (U 67.5)              26          0.6087     0.5302     0.6944     

     S Alabama (U 49.5)                24
     UL Lafayette (+7.5)               25          0.5254     0.6952     0.5473     

     California (U 53.5)               20
     Washington St (-4.5)              27          0.6578     0.5538     0.6556     

     Liberty (-1.5)                    27
     Old Dominion (O 44.5)             23          0.6017     0.5666     0.5871     

     Texas-El Paso (-2.5)              30
     Charlotte (O 52.5)                27          0.5609     0.5028     0.5525     

     East Carolina (O 59)              34
     South Florida (+8.5)              26          0.6722     0.5114     0.5036     

     Cincinnati (-10.5)                35
     Tulsa (U 60.5)                    20          0.7963     0.5903     0.6139     

     LSU (O 46.5)                      26
     Auburn (+7.5)                     21          0.6160     0.5607     0.5305     

     UL Monroe (+7.5)                  30
     Arkansas St (O 60.5)              37          0.6397     0.5202     0.5916     

     Troy (U 57.5)                     21
     W Kentucky (-5.5)                 33          0.7517     0.6422     0.5598     

     NC State (O 42.5)                 20
     Clemson (-6.5)                    27          0.6528     0.5018     0.5996     

     Virginia (+2.5)                   30
     Duke (O 50.5)                     26          0.5840     0.6384     0.6070     

     West Virginia (U 61.5)            24
     Texas (-8.5)                      37          0.7641     0.5937     0.5442     

     Georgia (-27.5)                   44
     Missouri (U 54.5)                 13          0.9640     0.5738     0.5230     

     Indiana (+4.5)                    28
     Nebraska (U 61.5)                 29          0.5248     0.5764     0.6023     

     UAB (U 51.5)                      30
     Rice (+9.5)                       21          0.7081     0.5033     0.5649     

     San Jose St (U 43.5)              20
     Wyoming (+1.5)                    21          0.5143     0.5509     0.5486     

     Georgia Tech (O 50.5)             16
     Pittsburgh (-23.5)                41          0.9226     0.5238     0.5953     

     Florida Intl (O 55.5)             20
     New Mexico St (-14.5)             38          0.8421     0.5733     0.5840     

     Colorado (+17.5)                  21
     Arizona (U 55.5)                  33          0.7606     0.6195     0.5379     

************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Point Spread
*    Arizona St (+26.5)                20
*    USC (U 61.5)                      37          0.8290     0.7117     0.6018     
************************************************************************************

     Stanford (U 62.5)                 23
     Oregon (-16.5)                    40          0.8232     0.5064     0.5296     


2022 Record
                    Straight-up               vs. Spread                Over/Under 
Last Week        40-19-0     0.678         23-36-0     0.390         32-27-0    0.520
Season          146-62-0     0.702         87-121-0    0.418        102-106-0   0.490

                                        
                             Best Bet (Spread)         Best Bet (Over/Under)         
Last Week                     1-0-0     1.000             0-1-0    0.000            
Season                        4-1-0     0.800             1-4-0    0.200 
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)"

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous weeks predictions: week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.