The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

2008 Week 13

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings . The numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The last 2 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The games are sorted by their probability of beating the point-spread. The game with the highest of these probabilities is the "best bet".

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     NC State                13
     North Carolina (-11)    35          0.9303     0.7708

     Washington (-7.5)       27
     Washington St           10          0.8604     0.7218

     Army (+17.5)            13
     Rutgers                 23          0.7615     0.7027

     Michigan (+20.5)        13
     Ohio St                 26          0.8265     0.6985

     Michigan St             13
     Penn St (-14)           35          0.9281     0.6977

     Boston College (+2.5)   21
     Wake Forest             17          0.6186     0.6809

     Stanford                21
     California (-8.5)       37          0.8495     0.6787

     Idaho                   17
     Hawaii (-23)            48          0.9708     0.6776

     Boise St (-6)           37
     Nevada                  24          0.7940     0.6683

     Marshall                27
     Rice (-8)               42          0.8121     0.6548

     Clemson                 21
     Virginia (+3)           23          0.5573     0.6390

     East Carolina (-6)      31
     UAB                     20          0.7697     0.6334

     Buffalo (+3.5)          28
     Bowling Green           26          0.5486     0.6334

     Duke (+17)              16
     Virginia Tech           28          0.7940     0.6316

     Texas Tech              34
     Oklahoma (-6.5)         46          0.7624     0.6280

     Illinois (-2.5)         31
     Northwestern            23          0.6906     0.6270

     West Virginia (-6.5)    31
     Louisville              20          0.7744     0.6216

     Tulane                  17
     Tulsa (-28)             50          0.9786     0.6213

     North Texas             17
     Middle Tenn St (-20)    42          0.9445     0.6179

     N Illinois (-3.5)       31
     Kent                    23          0.7013     0.6143

     Syracuse                12
     Notre Dame (-19)        35          0.9397     0.5971

     Mississippi (+5)        28
     LSU                     30          0.5380     0.5899

     Texas-El Paso           30
     Houston (-15)           49          0.8625     0.5886

     E Michigan              14
     Temple (-10.5)          28          0.8238     0.5773

     Oregon St               28
     Arizona (-2.5)          34          0.6388     0.5750

     UL Monroe               21
     Florida Intl (-6)       30          0.7191     0.5713

     Indiana                 20
     Purdue (-12.5)          35          0.8395     0.5679

     Iowa                    20
     Minnesota (+5.5)        17          0.5886     0.5663

     BYU                     21
     Utah (-6)               30          0.7137     0.5652

     UNLV (-12)              38
     San Diego St            23          0.8195     0.5651

     Fresno St               24
     San Jose St (+2.5)      23          0.5014     0.5650

     Ball St                 33
     C Michigan (+7)         28          0.6131     0.5592

     Pittsburgh              21
     Cincinnati (-4.5)       28          0.6731     0.5581

     UL Lafayette            28
     Troy St (-7.5)          38          0.7273     0.5567

     Arkansas (+1)           24
     Mississippi St          23          0.5238     0.5511

     C Florida (+5)          24
     Memphis                 27          0.5846     0.5476

     Connecticut (+3.5)      24
     South Florida           26          0.5469     0.5465

     Colorado St (-2)        24
     Wyoming                 20          0.6004     0.5462

     Florida Atl             17
     Arkansas St (-5)        24          0.6780     0.5459

     Air Force               10
     TCU (-18)               30          0.9214     0.5454

     Iowa St                 26
     Kansas St (-10)         38          0.7695     0.5425

     Florida St              23
     Maryland (-1.5)         26          0.5786     0.5376

     Miami Oh (+3)           24
     Toledo                  26          0.5454     0.5342

     Akron (-2.5)            28
     Ohio                    24          0.5968     0.5319

     Tennessee               16
     Vanderbilt (-3)         20          0.6138     0.5265

     Miami Fl (+3.5)         20
     Georgia Tech            23          0.5807     0.5171

     Louisiana Tech          27
     New Mexico St (+7)      21          0.6664     0.5159


2008 Season Record:
     
                    Straight-up                 vs. Spread                Best Bet
Last Week         36-14       0.720           24-25-1      0.490        0-1-0    0.000
Season*          438-141      0.756          285-285-9     0.500        7-5-0    0.583

*The records include results for week 4 (the week of Sept 20).  The predictions from that
week were not posted on the internet due to effects from Hurrican Ike.  The records from
that week were 35-10 SU, 27-18 ATS, and 1-0 BB.
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous weeks predictions: week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9 week 10 week 11 week 12

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Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.