The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

Post-New Years Bowls

 
 
 

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

    

********************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Point Spread
*    Florida (U 40.5)                  20
*    Iowa (+3)                         19          0.5072     0.5768     0.5908     
********************************************************************************************

     W Michigan (+8.5)                 23
     Wisconsin (U 52.5)                31          0.7044     0.5083     0.5361     

********************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    USC (U 59.5)                      28
*    Penn St (+7)                      23          0.6203     0.5581     0.6811     
********************************************************************************************

     Auburn (+3)                       31
     Oklahoma (U 64.5)                 33          0.5581     0.5152     0.5786     

     Clemson (U 52.5)                  20
     Alabama (-6)                      28          0.7078     0.5594     0.5730     



2016 Record
                    Straight-up                  vs. Spread                Over/Under 
Last Week        12-11-0     0.522             7-16-0     0.304         13-10-0    0.565
Season          533-199-0    0.722           359-385-11   0.483        355-391-9   0.476
 
                                        
                             Best Bet (Spread)         Best Bet (Over/Under)         
Last Week                     0-1-0     0.000             1-0-0     0.000            
Season                        5-11-1    0.324             7-9-1     0.441           
      
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

"Printer-friendly page"

"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)"

"Full Bowl Season picks (excluding the Title Game)"

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous weeks predictions: week1 week2 week3 week4 week5 week6 week7 week8 week9 week10 week11 week12 week13 week14 week15 week16 week17

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To check out the NFL page click here.

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.