The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

Week 9

 
 
 

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The small numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

     
     Arkansas St (-2)                  31
     UL Lafayette (O 54)               24          0.6688     0.6227     0.5348     

     Connecticut (+27.5)               14
     East Carolina (O 54.5)            41          0.9498     0.5258     0.5281     

     Miami Fl (U 49)                   23
     Virginia Tech (+3)                27          0.5945     0.6684     0.5555     

     South Florida (U 57.5)            17
     Cincinnati (-11)                  32          0.8331     0.6019     0.6817     

     Troy (U 55)                       20
     S Alabama (-15)                   35          0.8305     0.5095     0.5173     

     BYU (+6.5)                        29
     Boise St (O 54.5)                 28          0.5085     0.6653     0.5569     

     Oregon (-18.5)                    53
     California (U 79.5)               28          0.9182     0.6351     0.5014     

     Texas (O 44)                      20
     Kansas St (-10)                   31          0.7639     0.5292     0.6327     

     Rutgers (U 66.5)                  17
     Nebraska (-17.5)                  40          0.9198     0.6221     0.7154     

     UAB (U 75.5)                      21
     Arkansas (-22.5)                  47          0.9402     0.5869     0.6811     

     Memphis (U 55.5)                  34
     SMU (+23)                         13          0.9147     0.5560     0.7035     

     North Carolina (+7)               32
     Virginia (O 54.5)                 33          0.5054     0.6579     0.6983     

     Minnesota (-7)                    30
     Illinois (O 48)                   23          0.6738     0.5034     0.6212     

     Maryland (U 55)                   20
     Wisconsin (-11.5)                 34          0.8136     0.5671     0.5246     

     North Texas (+14.5)               20
     Rice (O 47.5)                     34          0.8099     0.5166     0.6218     

     N Illinois (-20)                  46
     E Michigan (U 67.5)               20          0.9366     0.6265     0.5703     

********************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Spread
*
*    San Jose St (+9)                  27
*    Navy (U 59)                       26          0.5192     0.7299     0.6442     
********************************************************************************

     UCLA (-13)                        42
     Colorado (U 70.5)                 24          0.8594     0.6180     0.5658     

     Ohio (+10)                        21
     W Michigan (U 59.5)               28          0.6647     0.5862     0.7042     

     Massachusetts (U 72)              23
     Toledo (-15)                      44          0.8940     0.6389     0.6333     

     Akron (O 47.5)                    23
     Ball St (+1.5)                    31          0.6950     0.7274     0.5836     

     Georgia So (-16)                  43
     Georgia St (U 68.5)               23          0.8746     0.5930     0.5875     

     Texas St (U 53.5)                 23
     UL Monroe (-3.5)                  27          0.5942     0.5070     0.5786     

     Kent St (+7)                      23
     Miami Oh (U 58)                   24          0.5122     0.6661     0.7348     

     Mississippi St (-13.5)            31
     Kentucky (U 61)                   16          0.8275     0.5273     0.7573     

     Michigan (O 43)                   14
     Michigan St (-17)                 34          0.9018     0.5713     0.6307     

     Texas Tech (O 64.5)               20
     TCU (-22.5)                       46          0.9377     0.5747     0.5047     

     West Virginia (U 70.5)            30
     Oklahoma St (-1)                  41          0.7460     0.7272     0.5046     

     Florida Atl (+28)                 21
     Marshall (O 59.5)                 47          0.9416     0.5418     0.6460     

     Georgia Tech (+3.5)               31
     Pittsburgh (O 55.5)               27          0.6062     0.6866     0.5477     

     C Michigan (U 60.5)               27
     Buffalo (+4)                      30          0.5656     0.6615     0.6360     

     Oregon St (+13.5)                 14
     Stanford (O 42.5)                 27          0.8021     0.5214     0.5082     

     Louisiana Tech (-9)               38
     Southern Miss (O 50)              23          0.8176     0.6369     0.6893     

     Boston College (O 37)             27
     Wake Forest (+12.5)               16          0.7613     0.5550     0.5779     

     Vanderbilt (O 38.5)               14
     Missouri (-20.5)                  35          0.9143     0.5154     0.7562     

     Old Dominion (U 79)               28
     W Kentucky (-10.5)                41          0.7584     0.5442     0.6695     

     UNLV (U 52.5)                     14
     Utah St (-17)                     37          0.9307     0.6519     0.5229     

********************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*
*    Arizona (-2.5)                    38
*    Washington St (U 84.5)            31          0.6532     0.5972     0.8218     
********************************************************************************

     Temple (O 40.5)                   20
     C Florida (-9.5)                  30          0.7301     0.5031     0.7215     

     Syracuse (O 46)                   17
     Clemson (-14)                     37          0.9018     0.6506     0.6048     

     Wyoming (U 57.5)                  19
     Colorado St (-18.5)               38          0.8845     0.5196     0.5131     

     Texas-El Paso (U 58)              21
     UTSA (-10)                        31          0.7449     0.5100     0.6580     

     Mississippi (-3.5)                27
     LSU (U 48)                        21          0.6451     0.5561     0.5289     

     Alabama (-17)                     33
     Tennessee (U 53.5)                13          0.9051     0.5702     0.6763     

     South Carolina (+17.5)            23
     Auburn (U 70)                     40          0.8489     0.5135     0.6949     

     Ohio St (-13.5)                   34
     Penn St (O 49)                    20          0.8113     0.5127     0.6225     

     USC (E)                           27
     Utah (U 64)                       24          0.5801     0.5801     0.7833     

     Arizona St (U 66)                 28
     Washington (+2)                   31          0.5823     0.6293     0.6367     

     Nevada (-4)                       33
     Hawaii (O 56)                     27          0.6527     0.5578     0.5446     



2013 Record
                    Straight-up                  vs. Spread                Over/Under 
Last Week        34-16-0     0.680            22-27-1     0.450          33-16-1    0.670
Season          243-85-0     0.741           154-170-4    0.476         191-134-3   0.587
 
                                        
                            Best Bet (Spread)         Best Bet (Over/Under)         
Last Week                     0-1-0   0.000               1-0-0  1.000            
Season                        0-7-0   0.000               6-1-0  0.857           

      
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

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To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous weeks predictions: week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8

To check out the NFL page click here.

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.