The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

Week 5

 
 
 

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

    

     Connecticut (+27.5)               10
     Houston (U 51)                    35          0.9373     0.5682     0.6238     

     Kansas (U 80)                     23
     Texas Tech (-28.5)                55          0.9551     0.5749     0.5559     

     Stanford (+3)                     23
     Washington (U 44)                 21          0.5441     0.6182     0.5061     

     Toledo (O 52)                     26
     BYU (-4)                          30          0.6030     0.5102     0.5655     

     Miami Fl (O 49)                   24
     Georgia Tech (+7)                 28          0.5963     0.7448     0.6012     

     Georgia St (+19)                  23
     Appalachian St (O 52)             31          0.6847     0.7419     0.5063     

     Northwestern (+13)                13
     Iowa (U 40)                       24          0.7532     0.5662     0.5638     

     Baylor (O 60)                     40
     Iowa St (+16.5)                   26          0.7733     0.5688     0.6236     

     Syracuse (U 75)                   26
     Notre Dame (-10.5)                41          0.7977     0.5943     0.6867     

     Florida (-10)                     23
     Vanderbilt (U 41)                 10          0.8082     0.5744     0.6889     

     C Florida (U 57.5)                21
     East Carolina (-4)                34          0.7747     0.6984     0.5210     

     Rutgers (O 59)                    10
     Ohio St (-38.5)                   50          0.9897     0.5214     0.5264     

     Texas (U 71)                      28
     Oklahoma St (-2.5)                33          0.6230     0.5675     0.7081     

     SMU (O 50)                        17
     Temple (-12.5)                    33          0.8348     0.5853     0.5436     

     Virginia (+3.5)                   27
     Duke (U 59.5)                     30          0.5703     0.5114     0.5761     

     Buffalo (+17.5)                   13
     Boston College (O 39.5)           27          0.8111     0.5866     0.5145     

     Ohio (-2.5)                       28
     Miami Oh (U 56.5)                 23          0.6223     0.5632     0.6341     

     Oregon St (+17.5)                 21
     Colorado (U 56.5)                 35          0.7948     0.5741     0.5130     

     E Michigan (O 64.5)               30
     Bowling Green (-3)                46          0.8105     0.7636     0.7109     

     Purdue (+10)                      27
     Maryland (U 61.5)                 34          0.6441     0.5735     0.5088     

     Wisconsin (+10.5)                 17
     Michigan (U 45)                   24          0.6767     0.5877     0.5494     

     Kansas St (O 54)                  26
     West Virginia (-3)                34          0.6672     0.6028     0.5736     

     Wake Forest (+10.5)               19
     NC State (U 51)                   28          0.7192     0.5258     0.6082     

     Minnesota (U 55)                  20
     Penn St (-3)                      27          0.6600     0.5900     0.6987     

     Illinois (O 54)                   17
     Nebraska (-21)                    40          0.9139     0.5536     0.5888     

     Navy (+7.5)                       26
     Air Force (O 51)                  33          0.6454     0.5218     0.6547     

     N Illinois (+4)                   33
     Ball St (O 58)                    28          0.6034     0.6880     0.5325     

     Tulane (O 43.5)                   24
     Massachusetts (+2.5)              26          0.5552     0.6157     0.6147     

*******************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    Akron (-7)                        24
*    Kent St (U 54.5)                  14          0.7290     0.5648     0.8251     
*******************************************************************************

     North Carolina (U 69)             30
     Florida St (-11)                  41          0.7272     0.5007     0.5149     

     Tennessee (U 54)                  26
     Georgia (+3)                      27          0.5053     0.5757     0.5130     

     UL Monroe (U 55.5)                10
     Auburn (-32.5)                    44          0.9795     0.5187     0.5464     

     Texas A&M (O 48)                  35
     South Carolina (+17.5)            19          0.8262     0.5484     0.5917     

     San Jose St (+8.5)                27
     New Mexico (U 56)                 30          0.5742     0.6210     0.5242     

     Troy (-14)                        40
     Idaho (O 59.5)                    24          0.8142     0.5446     0.6214     

     Oklahoma (U 69.5)                 32
     TCU (+3.5)                        33          0.5042     0.5825     0.6068     

     Old Dominion (-8.5)               37
     Charlotte (O 58)                  26          0.7296     0.5559     0.5802     

     Utah (+1.5)                       36
     California (O 67)                 33          0.5689     0.6017     0.5056     

     Memphis (+14)                     26
     Mississippi (U 65.5)              38          0.7481     0.5482     0.5596     

     South Florida (U 59.5)            31
     Cincinnati (+4)                   29          0.5417     0.5507     0.5191     

     Kentucky (O 57.5)                 7
     Alabama (-35)                     50          0.9952     0.6834     0.5167     

     W Michigan (U 56.5)               30
     C Michigan (+3.5)                 28          0.5559     0.5256     0.5002     

     Florida Atl (U 53)                24
     Florida Intl (+5)                 23          0.5325     0.5922     0.6614     

     Texas-El Paso (U 60.5)            13
     Louisiana Tech (-19.5)            45          0.9682     0.7605     0.5632     

     Rice (+24)                        21
     Southern Miss (O 59)              41          0.8745     0.5882     0.5911     

     Middle Tenn St (U 59.5)           35
     North Texas (+15)                 21          0.7820     0.5378     0.5394     

*******************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Point Spread
*    Marshall (U 62)                   23
*    Pittsburgh (-1)                   38          0.7949     0.7785     0.5153     
*******************************************************************************

     Missouri (+13)                    13
     LSU (U 51)                        24          0.7532     0.5666     0.8080     

     UL Lafayette (-5)                 41
     New Mexico St (O 64)              30          0.7244     0.6263     0.6348     

     Michigan St (-7)                  38
     Indiana (O 53.5)                  27          0.7346     0.5911     0.7159     

     San Diego St (U 52)               35
     S Alabama (+19.5)                 16          0.8756     0.5124     0.5782     

     Louisville (U 67)                 27
     Clemson (+1)                      30          0.5633     0.5867     0.7422     

     Arizona St (O 64)                 28
     USC (-9.5)                        40          0.7509     0.5579     0.5604     

     Oregon (-1)                       40
     Washington St (O 75)              37          0.5647     0.5435     0.5110     

     Wyoming (U 55.5)                  23
     Colorado St (-6.5)                32          0.7101     0.5671     0.5190     

     Utah St (+20)                     20
     Boise St (U 58)                   38          0.8493     0.5539     0.5402     

     Fresno St (+10.5)                 34
     UNLV (O 61.5)                     33          0.5206     0.7387     0.5876     

     Arizona (+13.5)                   27
     UCLA (O 58)                       36          0.7007     0.5992     0.5990     

     Nevada (-3.5)                     31
     Hawaii (U 59.5)                   21          0.7250     0.6509     0.6847     


2016 Record
                    Straight-up                  vs. Spread                Over/Under 
Last Week        38-14-0     0.731            23-29-0    0.442          25-27-0    0.481
Season          155-39-0     0.799            92-98-4    0.485          84-106-4   0.443
 
                                        
                             Best Bet (Spread)         Best Bet (Over/Under)         
Last Week                     0-1-0     0.000             0-1-0     0.000            
Season                        1-2-1     0.375             1-2-1     0.375           

      
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)"

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous weeks predictions: week1 week2 week3 week4

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To check out the NFL page click here.

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.