The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

Pre-Christmas Bowls

 
 
 

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The small numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

    
     Nevada (+1)                       35
     UL Lafayette (O 60.5)             30          0.6255     0.6488     0.5551     

     Texas-El Paso (U 49)              14
     Utah St (-10.5)                   30          0.8693     0.6547     0.6014     

     Utah (-4.5)                       33
     Colorado St (U 58.5)              24          0.7176     0.6113     0.5853     

     W Michigan (U 56.5)               27
     Air Force (+1)                    28          0.5390     0.5642     0.5181     

     S Alabama (U 54)                  24
     Bowling Green (+2.5)              26          0.5653     0.6296     0.6233     

     BYU (+1)                          27
     Memphis (U 57.5)                  24          0.5723     0.5980     0.6241     

     N Illinois (+10)                  31
     Marshall (O 65)                   40          0.7212     0.5094     0.5774     

********************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    Navy (+2.5)                       24
*    San Diego St (U 54)               23          0.5238     0.5900     0.6271     
********************************************************************************

********************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Points
*    C Michigan (U 66)                 27
*    W Kentucky (-3)                   38          0.7417     0.6787     0.5382     
********************************************************************************

     Fresno St (+1)                    33
     Rice (O 58)                       31          0.5570     0.5816     0.5848     



2014 Record
                    Straight-up                  vs. Spread                Over/Under 
Last Week         1-0-0      1.000             0-1-0      0.000           0-1-0     0.000
Season          527-183-0    0.742           346-357-7    0.492         405-298-7   0.575
 
                                        
                             Best Bet (Spread)         Best Bet (Over/Under)         
Last Week                     0-1-0    1.000               0-1-0  0.000            
Season                        4-12-0   0.250               9-6-1  0.594           

      
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

"Printer-friendly page"

"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)"

All Bowls, as of Dec 14

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous weeks predictions: week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9 week 10 week 11 week 12 week 13 week 14 week 15 week 16

To check out the NFL page click here.

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.