The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

Week 10

 
 
 

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The small numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

     
     Florida St (-6)                   31
     Louisville (O 41)                 21          0.7321     0.5926     0.7442     

     Troy (+25)                        20
     Georgia So (U 66)                 43          0.9126     0.5392     0.5726     

     Tulsa (U 68)                      20
     Memphis (-21.5)                   42          0.9144     0.5121     0.7132     

     Cincinnati (-3.5)                 30
     Tulane (U 60)                     21          0.7169     0.6366     0.6938     

     Air Force (U 63.5)                31
     Army (+3.5)                       28          0.5633     0.5221     0.5850     

     Duke (+1)                         31
     Pittsburgh (O 52.5)               23          0.6937     0.7156     0.5276     

     East Carolina (O 56.5)            33
     Temple (+7.5)                     28          0.6115     0.5687     0.5954     

     Oklahoma (O 59)                   40
     Iowa St (+16)                     24          0.8282     0.5128     0.5563     

     Wisconsin (-7.5)                  34
     Rutgers (U 59.5)                  20          0.8120     0.6571     0.6807     

     Rice (-6.5)                       30
     Florida Intl (O 43)               21          0.7118     0.5539     0.6326     

     UL Monroe (O 61.5)                14
     Texas A&M (-32)                   52          0.9901     0.6423     0.5639     

     C Florida (-12.5)                 28
     Connecticut (O 35.5)              14          0.8278     0.5418     0.6860     

     Boston College (U 45.5)           16
     Virginia Tech (-3)                21          0.6409     0.5604     0.6917     

     North Carolina (+16.5)            30
     Miami Fl (O 62)                   42          0.7648     0.5982     0.6826     

     C Michigan (-16.5)                34
     E Michigan (U 54)                 16          0.8768     0.5315     0.6048     

     Washington (-5)                   35
     Colorado (U 62)                   23          0.7663     0.6589     0.6478     

     W Michigan (U 63.5)               30
     Miami Oh (+6.5)                   24          0.6500     0.5117     0.7135     

     W Kentucky (O 67.5)               31
     Louisiana Tech (-5.5)             40          0.7044     0.5846     0.5297     

     NC State (U 50.5)                 20
     Syracuse (-3)                     30          0.7384     0.6708     0.5404     

     Georgia (-12.5)                   37
     Florida (O 47)                    21          0.8375     0.5776     0.6897     

     Purdue (O 58.5)                   17
     Nebraska (-23.5)                  47          0.9650     0.6474     0.6481     

     BYU (-5.5)                        37
     Middle Tenn St (U 61)             26          0.7452     0.6261     0.5132     

*********************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    Indiana (O 48)                    30
*    Michigan (-7.5)                   41          0.7327     0.5708     0.8868     
*********************************************************************************

     Georgia St (+8)                   34
     Appalachian St (U 76)             37          0.5700     0.5983     0.6296     

     Virginia (U 58)                   23
     Georgia Tech (-3.5)               35          0.7640     0.6915     0.5217     

     TCU (-6)                          35
     West Virginia (U 73.5)            28          0.6681     0.5285     0.7184     

     Houston (-9.5)                    28
     South Florida (O 42)              17          0.7719     0.5448     0.5625     

*********************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Spread
*    Kentucky (O 46)                   16
*    Missouri (-6.5)                   34          0.8755     0.7667     0.5898     
*********************************************************************************

     Texas St (U 66.5)                 34
     New Mexico St (+7.5)              27          0.6543     0.5236     0.6529     

     Kansas (U 63.5)                   10
     Baylor (-35.5)                    51          0.9937     0.6162     0.5233     

     USC (-7.5)                        38
     Washington St (U 70.5)            23          0.8135     0.6656     0.7025     

     S Alabama (+6.5)                  27
     UL Lafayette (U 56.5)             30          0.5806     0.5803     0.5604     

     Arkansas St (-15.5)               40
     Idaho (U 76.5)                    20          0.8848     0.5975     0.8158     

     New Mexico (U 73.5)               30
     UNLV (-1)                         35          0.6251     0.6021     0.7103     

     Arkansas (U 72)                   20
     Mississippi St (-10.5)            34          0.8058     0.5754     0.8539     

     Texas (+5)                        33
     Texas Tech (O 52)                 28          0.6175     0.7285     0.6680     

     Maryland (O 42)                   20
     Penn St (-3)                      26          0.6550     0.5793     0.5906     

     Auburn (U 56)                     24
     Mississippi (-2.5)                27          0.5796     0.5149     0.6429     

     Oklahoma St (+13.5)               21
     Kansas St (U 57.5)                34          0.7942     0.5102     0.5189     

     Northwestern (+4.5)               17
     Iowa (U 43)                       20          0.5738     0.5493     0.6050     

     UAB (U 67)                        30
     Florida Atl (+1)                  33          0.5720     0.5957     0.6084     

     Colorado St (U 60)                33
     San Jose St (+7)                  27          0.6439     0.5272     0.5750     

     Old Dominion (O 54)               23
     Vanderbilt (-9.5)                 38          0.8107     0.6232     0.6933     

     Stanford (+9.5)                   24
     Oregon (U 66)                     30          0.6398     0.5996     0.7846     

     Tennessee (O 54)                  23
     South Carolina (-8)               31          0.6957     0.5034     0.5515     

     Southern Miss (U 68)              24
     Texas-El Paso (-7)                33          0.7156     0.5512     0.7576     

     Notre Dame (-15)                  34
     Navy (U 58.5)                     17          0.8586     0.5381     0.7025     

     Illinois (O 59.5)                 21
     Ohio St (-28)                     51          0.9581     0.5349     0.7702     

     San Diego St (U 54.5)             20
     Nevada (-6)                       31          0.7644     0.6292     0.6209     

     Arizona (U 80)                    30
     UCLA (-3.5)                       38          0.6837     0.6059     0.7491     

     California (O 63)                 30
     Oregon St (-3)                    43          0.7718     0.7158     0.6753     

     Wyoming (O 64.5)                  28
     Fresno St (-10.5)                 41          0.7827     0.5633     0.5807     

     Utah St (-2.5)                    27
     Hawaii (O 38.5)                   17          0.7475     0.6911     0.6544     

     Utah (U 63.5)                     26
     Arizona St (-5)                   36          0.7317     0.6224     0.5761     



2013 Record
                    Straight-up                  vs. Spread                Over/Under 
Last Week        37-12-0     0.755            22-27-0     0.449          28-21-0    0.571
Season          315-114-0    0.734           194-231-4    0.457         242-181-6   0.571
 
                                        
                            Best Bet (Spread)         Best Bet (Over/Under)         
Last Week                     0-1-0   0.000               0-1-0  0.000            
Season                        1-8-0   0.111               6-2-1  0.722           

      
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)"

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous weeks predictions: week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9

To check out the NFL page click here.

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.