The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

Post New Years Bowls

 
 
 

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The small numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

    
     Pittsburgh (O 53.5)               30
     Houston (+3.5)                    28          0.5629     0.5270     0.5502     

********************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    Iowa (+3.5)                       21
*    Tennessee (U 51.5)                23          0.5611     0.5333     0.6188     
********************************************************************************

     UCLA (U 59.5)                     28
     Kansas St (+1.5)                  30          0.5604     0.5979     0.5572     

     Oklahoma St (+6.5)                26
     Washington (U 56.5)               30          0.6142     0.5538     0.5846     

********************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Point Spread
*    East Carolina (U 56)              21
*    Florida (-7)                      33          0.7712     0.6144     0.5273     
********************************************************************************

     Toledo (U 67)                     34
     Arkansas St (+3.5)                33          0.5374     0.5479     0.5125     

     Ohio St (+7)                      35
     Oregon (O 73.5)                   42          0.6539     0.5070     0.5761     



2014 Record
                    Straight-up                  vs. Spread                Over/Under 
Last Week        12-10-0     0.545            12-10-0      0.545          11-11-0    0.500
Season          546-196-0    0.736           363-372-7     0.494         420-315-7   0.571
 
                                        
                             Best Bet (Spread)         Best Bet (Over/Under)         
Last Week                     1-0-0    1.000               1-0-0  1.000            
Season                        5-13-0   0.278              11-6-1  0.639           

      
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)"

All Bowls, as of Dec 14

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous weeks predictions: week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9 week 10 week 11 week 12 week 13 week 14 week 15 week 16 week 17 week 18

To check out the NFL page click here.

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.