The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

Week 11

 
 
 

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

   
     Bowling Green (-13.5)             35
     C Michigan (O 48.5)               20          0.8101     0.5284     0.6139     

     Miami Oh (-12)                    27
     Ball St (U 48)                    14          0.7955     0.5109     0.6551     

     Ohio (-18.5)                      38
     Kent St (O 52)                    17          0.8831     0.5400     0.5921     

     N Illinois (-1.5)                 30
     W Michigan (U 52.5)               24          0.6422     0.6079     0.5128     

     Appalachian St (O 62.5)           33
     C Carolina (-1.5)                 35          0.5430     0.5104     0.5753     

     Florida Atl (+7.5)                21
     East Carolina (U 57.5)            28          0.6686     0.5108     0.6831     

     California (-7.5)                 34
     Wake Forest (O 54.5)              23          0.7466     0.5875     0.5009     

     Rice (O 52.5)                     20
     Memphis (-9.5)                    37          0.8329     0.6567     0.5884     

     Iowa (-6.5)                       26
     UCLA (U 44.5)                     17          0.7128     0.5503     0.5886     

*******************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    New Mexico (U 67.5)               24
*    San Diego St (-3.5)               30          0.6411     0.5601     0.7780     
*******************************************************************************

     Navy (-3.5)                       30
     South Florida (U 57.5)            24          0.6385     0.5578     0.5869     

     West Virginia (U 56.5)            24
     Cincinnati (-4.5)                 29          0.6127     0.5072     0.5787     

     Minnesota (U 46.5)                23
     Rutgers (+6.5)                    17          0.6424     0.5297     0.6544     

     Purdue (O 53.5)                   10
     Ohio St (-37.5)                   54          0.9947     0.6336     0.7058     

     Florida (+21.5)                   17
     Texas (O 48)                      37          0.8787     0.5454     0.6567     

     Syracuse (+2.5)                   25
     Boston College (U 53.5)           26          0.5248     0.5361     0.5716     

     Texas St (-7.5)                   31
     UL Monroe (O 48.5)                23          0.6833     0.5120     0.6117     

     Miami Fl (-11.5)                  37
     Georgia Tech (U 63.5)             23          0.7794     0.5426     0.6015     

     Liberty (O 54)                    31
     Middle Tenn St (+10.5)            23          0.6826     0.5528     0.5405     

     Connecticut (U 56.5)              30
     UAB (+6.5)                        26          0.5986     0.5536     0.5446     

     Marshall (-13.5)                  33
     Southern Miss (U 55.5)            17          0.8367     0.5554     0.6498     

     Iowa St (-2.5)                    30
     Kansas (O 50.5)                   24          0.6288     0.5700     0.5120     

     San Jose St (O 55.5)              24
     Oregon St (-2.5)                  33          0.7090     0.6565     0.5008     

     Army (U 63.5)                     35
     North Texas (+5.5)                30          0.6098     0.5120     0.5382     

*******************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Point Spread
*    Michigan (+14.5)                  23
*    Indiana (O 48.5)                  28          0.6182     0.7216     0.5544     
*******************************************************************************

     Clemson (U 53.5)                  27
     Virginia Tech (+6.5)              24          0.5823     0.5745     0.5280     

     Georgia (U 55)                    28
     Mississippi (+2.5)                26          0.5453     0.5157     0.5926     

     Georgia St (O 53.5)               17
     James Madison (-16.5)             38          0.8908     0.6029     0.5660     

     Duke (+3.5)                       26
     NC State (U 50.5)                 24          0.5535     0.6375     0.5139     

     Kennesaw St (U 42.5)              20
     Texas-El Paso (-3.5)              24          0.6005     0.5130     0.5268     

     Temple (O 49.5)                   12
     Tulane (-26.5)                    44          0.9753     0.6266     0.6071     

     Colorado (U 62.5)                 31
     Texas Tech (+3.5)                 32          0.5327     0.6102     0.5236     

     South Carolina (-3.5)             31
     Vanderbilt (O 46.5)               20          0.7509     0.6787     0.6217     

     Jacksonville St (O 55.5)          34
     Louisiana Tech (+9.5)             24          0.7048     0.5034     0.5191     

     Arkansas St (+16.5)               24
     UL Lafayette (U 60.5)             38          0.7851     0.5583     0.5035     

     W Kentucky (O 51.5)               38
     New Mexico St (+18.5)             20          0.8486     0.5227     0.5947     

     Maryland (+25.5)                  17
     Oregon (O 57.5)                   43          0.9280     0.5026     0.5697     

     Mississippi St (U 61.5)           16
     Tennessee (-23.5)                 43          0.9392     0.5602     0.5971     

     C Florida (+2.5)                  28
     Arizona St (U 55.5)               27          0.5309     0.5898     0.5212     

     Oklahoma St (+11.5)               28
     TCU (U 66.5)                      37          0.6882     0.5577     0.5254     

     Florida St (+25.5)                13
     Notre Dame (O 42.5)               35          0.9223     0.5978     0.5687     

     Alabama (O 58.5)                  31
     LSU (+2.5)                        30          0.5332     0.5238     0.5298     

     Oklahoma (O 42.5)                 24
     Missouri (-1.5)                   26          0.5506     0.5138     0.6762     

     Nevada (U 60.5)                   16
     Boise St (-24.5)                  46          0.9548     0.6044     0.5015     

     Washington (O 45.5)               17
     Penn St (-13.5)                   31          0.8078     0.5009     0.5153     

     Virginia (U 57.5)                 23
     Pittsburgh (-7.5)                 33          0.7134     0.5468     0.5712     

     UNLV (-13.5)                      40
     Hawaii (O 49.5)                   21          0.8639     0.6224     0.6833     

     Fresno St (U 41.5)                24
     Air Force (+10.5)                 16          0.7089     0.5635     0.5418     

     BYU (U 41.5)                      24
     Utah (+4.5)                       20          0.5978     0.5203     0.5044     

     Utah St (O 69.5)                  23
     Washington St (-20.5)             49          0.9130     0.6004     0.5016     


2024 Record
                    Straight-up               vs. Spread                Over/Under 
Last Week        27-21-0     0.563         20-28-0    0.417          24-24-0    0.500
Season          349-160-0    0.686        237-272-0   0.466         276-233-0   0.542

                                        
                             Best Bet (Spread)         Best Bet (Over/Under)         
Last Week                     1-0-0     1.000             0-1-0     0.000            
Season                        2-9-0     0.182             6-5-0     0.546 
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)"

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous predictions: week 0 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9 week 10

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.