The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

2018: Bowl Games

 
 
 

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

      
     North Texas (U 66.5)              26
     Utah St (-9)                      38          0.7742     0.5808     0.5523     

     Tulane (-3.5)                     28
     UL Lafayette (U 59)               24          0.6122     0.5245     0.6330     

     Arizona St (O 52)                 24
     Fresno St (-4.5)                  30          0.6445     0.5315     0.5358     

     E Michigan (+1)                   28
     Georgia So (O 47.5)               24          0.5959     0.6207     0.5828     

     Middle Tenn St (U 50.5)           19
     Appalachian St (-7)               31          0.7828     0.6259     0.5340     

     N Illinois (+2.5)                 26
     UAB (O 43.5)                      24          0.5529     0.6165     0.6418     

     Ohio (U 54)                       27
     San Diego St (+3)                 24          0.5679     0.5090     0.5409     

     Marshall (+2.5)                   28
     South Florida (O 55.5)            29          0.5217     0.5411     0.5209     

     Florida Intl (+6)                 30
     Toledo (U 68.5)                   35          0.6293     0.5137     0.5894     

     BYU (O 48.5)                      31
     W Michigan (+12)                  24          0.6793     0.6184     0.6361     

     Wake Forest (+5)                  37
     Memphis (U 73.5)                  34          0.5691     0.6802     0.5665     

********************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    Houston (U 67)                    23
*    Army (-3)                         28          0.6348     0.5585     0.8358     
********************************************************************************************

     Buffalo (U 53.5)                  24
     Troy (+2.5)                       27          0.5666     0.6299     0.5627     

     Louisiana Tech (+1)               33
     Hawaii (O 60)                     30          0.5783     0.6018     0.5319     

     Boston College (+3)               23
     Boise St (U 55)                   26          0.5676     0.5110     0.6498     

     Minnesota (U 60.5)                24
     Georgia Tech (-4)                 30          0.6404     0.5401     0.6843     

     TCU (E)                           27
     California (O 40.5)               21          0.6592     0.6592     0.6872     

     Duke (+3)                         23
     Temple (U 56)                     24          0.5352     0.5443     0.7100     

     Miami Fl (U 47)                   21
     Wisconsin (+4)                    22          0.5264     0.6326     0.6016     

     Baylor (U 55)                     24
     Vanderbilt (-3.5)                 30          0.6577     0.5722     0.5290     

     Auburn (-4)                       28
     Purdue (U 54.5)                   23          0.6195     0.5170     0.6511     

     Syracuse (U 68.5)                 30
     West Virginia (-1.5)              38          0.6844     0.6519     0.5232     

     Iowa St (+3.5)                    24
     Washington St (U 54.5)            26          0.5485     0.5416     0.5779     

     Florida (+7.5)                    19
     Michigan (U 50.5)                 24          0.6241     0.5761     0.6676     

     Arkansas St (-1)                  30
     Nevada (U 60)                     28          0.5616     0.5369     0.5297     

     South Carolina (-4)               28
     Virginia (U 54.5)                 20          0.7091     0.6120     0.7034     

     Oklahoma (U 81)                   26
     Alabama (-14)                     41          0.8158     0.5222     0.7752     

     Notre Dame (U 55)                 19
     Clemson (-11.5)                   35          0.8460     0.6070     0.5505     

     Virginia Tech (+5)                23
     Cincinnati (U 53.5)               24          0.5321     0.5999     0.6923     

     Pittsburgh (+6.5)                 24
     Stanford (O 52)                   30          0.6570     0.5061     0.5302     

     Michigan St (+3)                  30
     Oregon (O 48)                     26          0.5893     0.6618     0.6226     

     Missouri (O 74)                   39
     Oklahoma St (+7.5)                35          0.5959     0.5753     0.5075     

     Northwestern (+7)                 20
     Utah (U 45)                       27          0.6716     0.5118     0.5042     

     NC State (+4.5)                   31
     Texas A&M (O 58.5)                32          0.5217     0.5873     0.5883     

********************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Point Spread 
*    Iowa (+6.5)                       21
*    Mississippi St (U 44.5)           20          0.5288     0.6946     0.5296     
********************************************************************************************

     Kentucky (O 48)                   23
     Penn St (-6)                      31          0.6924     0.5481     0.6591     

     LSU (U 55.5)                      26
     C Florida (+7.5)                  27          0.5032     0.6875     0.5788     

     Washington (+6)                   23
     Ohio St (U 58)                    28          0.6191     0.5343     0.6263     

     Texas (U 58)                      19
     Georgia (-11)                     31          0.7881     0.5272     0.7304     


2018 Record
                    Straight-up                  vs. Spread                Over/Under 
Last Week         1-0-0      1.000             0-0-1      0.500           0-1-0      0.000
Season           548-185-0   0.748            346-375-11  0.480         389-329-14   0.542
 
                                        
                             Best Bet (Spread)         Best Bet (Over/Under)         
Last Week                     0-0-1     0.500             0-1-0      0.000            
Season                        9-5-2     0.625             7-8-1      0.469           
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)"

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous weeks predictions: week 1, week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9 week 10 week 11 week 12 week 13 week 14 week 15 week 16

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.