The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

Week 9

 
 
 

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

      
     S Alabama (U 49.5)                16
     Georgia So (-5.5)                 31          0.8237     0.7206     0.6054     

     Colorado St (U 57.5)              24
     Fresno St (+1.5)                  34          0.7021     0.7307     0.5179     

     Marshall (U 48.5)                 31
     Florida Intl (+23.5)              20          0.7425     0.7818     0.5067     

     Minnesota (-19.5)                 40
     Maryland (O 58.5)                 20          0.8604     0.5043     0.5289     

     East Carolina (O 59.5)            21
     Tulsa (-17.5)                     40          0.8674     0.5408     0.5117     

     Hawaii (U 55.5)                   27
     Wyoming (+1.5)                    28          0.5267     0.5603     0.5239     

     Georgia (U 42.5)                  26
     Kentucky (+14.5)                  14          0.7840     0.5655     0.5979     

     Boston College (U 60.5)           13
     Clemson (-31.5)                   47          0.9799     0.5449     0.5691     

     Kansas St (+3.5)                  26
     West Virginia (U 48.5)            23          0.5785     0.6610     0.5084     

     Temple (U 61.5)                   24
     Tulane (-4.5)                     31          0.6546     0.5512     0.6302     

     Iowa St (O 54.5)                  38
     Kansas (+28.5)                    16          0.9102     0.6493     0.5410     

     Wake Forest (-10.5)               38
     Syracuse (O 58.5)                 26          0.7561     0.5317     0.5791     

     C Carolina (-3.5)                 36
     Georgia St (O 64.5)               30          0.6416     0.5651     0.5005     

     UTSA (O 49.5)                     20
     Florida Atl (-6.5)                38          0.8506     0.7447     0.6611     

     Michigan St (+25.5)               10
     Michigan (U 54.5)                 35          0.9306     0.5248     0.7405     

     Memphis (U 58.5)                  23
     Cincinnati (-6.5)                 34          0.7329     0.5931     0.5529     

     Purdue (-6.5)                     34
     Illinois (O 56.5)                 27          0.6510     0.5119     0.5830     

     C Florida (-2.5)                  43
     Houston (U 78.5)                  35          0.6687     0.6185     0.5267     

     Troy (+2.5)                       34
     Arkansas St (U 72.5)              36          0.5495     0.5059     0.5632     

     Rice (+2.5)                       26
     Southern Miss (U 58.5)            28          0.5455     0.5134     0.6426     

     Notre Dame (-19.5)                42
     Georgia Tech (U 57.5)             13          0.9609     0.7085     0.6056     

********************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    Northwestern (U 45.5)             13
*    Iowa (-2.5)                       21          0.6967     0.6381     0.8134     
********************************************************************************

     Indiana (-12.5)                   36
     Rutgers (U 53.5)                  17          0.8566     0.6359     0.5333     

     Wisconsin (-7.5)                  36
     Nebraska (O 51.5)                 17          0.8545     0.7357     0.5852     

     TCU (U 48.5)                      20
     Baylor (+2.5)                     26          0.6380     0.6954     0.6197     

     UAB (U 47.5)                      26
     Louisiana Tech (+12.5)            24          0.5444     0.7514     0.5059     

     LSU (-2.5)                        33
     Auburn (U 63.5)                   28          0.6234     0.5665     0.5806     

     Appalachian St (-31.5)            48
     UL Monroe (O 54.5)                14          0.9773     0.5584     0.6782     

     Virginia Tech (-3.5)              37
     Louisville (O 64.5)               31          0.6356     0.5583     0.5871     

     Mississippi (U 61.5)              35
     Vanderbilt (+18.5)                21          0.8035     0.5963     0.6253     

     Texas (+3.5)                      34
     Oklahoma St (O 58.5)              31          0.5583     0.6363     0.6217     

     North Texas (U 64.5)              31
     Texas-El Paso (+5.5)              28          0.5664     0.5591     0.6039     

     Boise St (O 51.5)                 26
     Air Force (+14.5)                 27          0.5038     0.8011     0.5192     

     Charlotte (+9.5)                  26
     Duke (U 55.5)                     28          0.5479     0.6752     0.5549     

********************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Point Spread
*    New Mexico (O 58.5)               23
*    San Jose St (+9.5)                38          0.7958     0.9107     0.5175     
********************************************************************************

     Mississippi St (+31.5)            16
     Alabama (U 63.5)                  46          0.9616     0.5299     0.5760     

     Ohio St (U 64.5)                  38
     Penn St (+12.5)                   26          0.7369     0.5183     0.5715     

     Navy (+13.5)                      31
     SMU (O 59.5)                      40          0.6858     0.6134     0.6867     

     Missouri (U 62.5)                 20
     Florida (-13.5)                   38          0.8482     0.5917     0.6755     

     Arkansas (+12.5)                  23
     Texas A&M (O 55.5)                35          0.7682     0.5036     0.5432     

     UL Lafayette (-16.5)              38
     Texas St (U 55.5)                 17          0.9009     0.6055     0.5468     

     North Carolina (U 59.5)           31
     Virginia (+6.5)                   28          0.5741     0.5794     0.5177     

     Oklahoma (O 68.5)                 47
     Texas Tech (+14.5)                34          0.7507     0.5414     0.7312     

     San Diego St (U 45.5)             23
     Utah St (+7.5)                    20          0.5707     0.6072     0.5701     

     W Kentucky (+28.5)                13
     BYU (U 52.5)                      33          0.9047     0.7035     0.6824     

     Nevada (O 58.5)                   34
     UNLV (+13.5)                      26          0.6646     0.6227     0.5075     



2020 Record
                    Straight-up              vs. Spread                Over/Under 
Last Week         31-13-0   0.705          21-23-0   0.477           23-21-0   0.523
Season           123-64-0   0.658          86-101-0  0.460          104-82-1   0.559
 
                                        
                             Best Bet (Spread)         Best Bet (Over/Under)         
Last Week                     1-0-0     1.000             0-1-0    1.000            
Season                        5-3-0     0.625             6-2-0    0.750 
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

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To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous weeks predictions: week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.