The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

Week 1

 
 
 

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The small numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

     

     Texas A&M (+11)                   30
     South Carolina (O 57.5)           37          0.6328     0.5686     0.7060     

     Wake Forest (-3)                  26
     UL Monroe (U 46.5)                20          0.6158     0.5549     0.5619     

     Tulane (+5.5)                     24
     Tulsa (O 47)                      26          0.5446     0.5665     0.5745     

     Mississippi (U 57)                30
     Boise St (+10.5)                  26          0.5801     0.6256     0.5755     

     Temple (+16.5)                    20
     Vanderbilt (O 52)                 35          0.7668     0.5376     0.5190     

     Rutgers (+9.5)                    23
     Washington St (U 60)              31          0.6582     0.5244     0.6125     

     BYU (U 50.5)                      31
     Connecticut (+17)                 16          0.7772     0.5520     0.6451     

     Bowling Green (-7)                28
     W Kentucky (U 56)                 17          0.7220     0.5876     0.7605     

     Colorado St (+3)                  35
     Colorado (U 65)                   30          0.5955     0.6495     0.5320     

     UTSA (+12.5)                      23
     Houston (O 55.5)                  34          0.6941     0.5396     0.5282     

     UNLV (O 57)                       20
     Arizona (-23)                     49          0.9123     0.6064     0.6947     

     Penn St (O 48)                    24
     C Florida (E)                     30          0.6229     0.6229     0.5606     

     Ohio St (-17)                     43
     Navy (U 63)                       20          0.8669     0.6143     0.5407     

     UCLA (-21.5)                      38
     Virginia (U 59.5)                 16          0.8668     0.5130     0.6337     

     Troy (+1)                         44
     UAB (O 66)                        35          0.6478     0.6643     0.7201     

     California (U 62)                 24
     Northwestern (-10)                38          0.7449     0.5715     0.5174     

     Florida Atl (+24)                 17
     Nebraska (U 52)                   33          0.7861     0.6627     0.5289     

     Boston College (-14)              37
     Massachusetts (O 48)              14          0.8772     0.6721     0.5130     

     Marshall (-23.5)                  45
     Miami Oh (O 60)                   17          0.9100     0.5804     0.5326     

     Rice (+24)                        14
     Notre Dame (U 52.5)               34          0.8453     0.5834     0.5657     

     Alabama (-24.5)                   48
     West Virginia (O 54)              14          0.9514     0.6790     0.6450     

     Arkansas (O 57)                   17
     Auburn (-22)                      41          0.8753     0.5290     0.5242     

*******************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    Clemson (+8.5)                    37
*    Georgia (O 57.5)                  38          0.5190     0.6324     0.7909     
*******************************************************************************

     Ohio (O 49)                       24
     Kent St (-3)                      31          0.6327     0.5750     0.6014     

     Louisiana Tech (O 51.5)           10
     Oklahoma (-37)                    50          0.9740     0.5560     0.7112     

     W Michigan (+12.5)                23
     Purdue (O 52)                     31          0.6568     0.5848     0.5548     

     Idaho (U 51.5)                    3
     Florida (-34.5)                   43          0.9810     0.5992     0.6001     

     Fresno St (+22)                   26
     USC (O 57.5)                      38          0.7106     0.6896     0.6094     

     Southern Miss (U 55.5)            6
     Mississippi St (-29.6)            45          0.9752     0.6733     0.5649     

     Washington (-15)                  43
     Hawaii (O 60)                     17          0.8956     0.7045     0.5592     

     Florida St (O 63)                 41
     Oklahoma St (+18.5)               26          0.7609     0.5658     0.5425     

*******************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Spread
*    North Texas (+25)                 19
*    Texas (U 51)                      31          0.7355     0.7443     0.5867     
*******************************************************************************

     Texas-El Paso (U 66)              28
     New Mexico (-7)                   40          0.7067     0.5847     0.5233     

     LSU (O 50)                        27
     Wisconsin (+5)                    24          0.5686     0.5318     0.5113     

     Utah St (+6.5)                    27
     Tennessee (U 52)                  23          0.5838     0.7072     0.5830     

     SMU (O 74.5)                      21
     Baylor (-31.5)                    59          0.9551     0.6116     0.5795     

     Miami Fl (O 55.5)                 24
     Louisville (-3.5)                 34          0.6831     0.6198     0.5237     




2013 Record
                    Straight-up                  vs. Spread                Over/Under 
Last Week         0-0-0     0.000              0-0-0    0.000            0-0-0   0.000
Season            0-0-0     0.000              0-0-0    0.000            0-0-0   0.000
 
                                        
                            Best Bet (Spread)         Best Bet (Over/Under)         
Last Week                     0-0-0   0.000               0-0-0  0.000            
Season                        0-0-0   0.000               0-0-0  0.000           

      
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)"

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous weeks predictions:

To check out the NFL page click here.

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.