The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

Week 14

 
 
 

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The small numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

     
     Ohio (U 48.5)                     24
     Miami Oh (+2.5)                   23          0.5294     0.5375     0.5271     

     TCU (-6.5)                        30
     Texas (U 56.5)                    21          0.7175     0.5561     0.6931     

     LSU (O 49.5)                      31
     Texas A&M (+3)                    30          0.5066     0.5680     0.7160     

     N Illinois (+7)                   30
     W Michigan (O 58)                 31          0.5031     0.6673     0.5436     

     Nebraska (+1)                     28
     Iowa (U 57)                       24          0.6008     0.6260     0.6356     

     W Kentucky (+21)                  28
     Marshall (O 74)                   48          0.8823     0.5175     0.5319     

     C Florida (-12)                   27
     South Florida (U 43)              14          0.8220     0.5380     0.5105     

     Houston (O 49.5)                  37
     SMU (+22)                         16          0.9150     0.5312     0.5338     

     Toledo (-23)                      44
     E Michigan (O 61)                 17          0.9507     0.5858     0.5429     

     Ball St (+9.5)                    28
     Bowling Green (O 56.5)            33          0.6275     0.6064     0.5648     

     Buffalo (U 68)                    31
     Massachusetts (+2)                30          0.5056     0.5435     0.6778     

     Akron (U 42)                      20
     Kent St (+3.5)                    17          0.5791     0.5189     0.5875     

     Arkansas (U 46)                   20
     Missouri (+1.5)                   24          0.6107     0.6492     0.5457     

     Navy (-9.5)                       30
     S Alabama (U 54.5)                17          0.7960     0.5798     0.6334     

     Stanford (U 49)                   21
     UCLA (-4.5)                       26          0.6279     0.5089     0.5773     

     Arizona St (U 71)                 31
     Arizona (-1)                      34          0.5713     0.5474     0.6080     

     Colorado St (-7)                  33
     Air Force (U 61)                  26          0.6745     0.5035     0.5617     

     Virginia (U 40)                   16
     Virginia Tech (-1)                21          0.6422     0.6152     0.6113     

     East Carolina (-16.5)             43
     Tulsa (O 66.5)                    26          0.8428     0.5038     0.5526     

     Michigan (O 47.5)                 20
     Ohio St (-20)                     43          0.9304     0.5800     0.7595     

     Georgia Tech (O 65.5)             28
     Georgia (-13)                     42          0.7992     0.5232     0.5861     

     South Carolina (O 44.5)           26
     Clemson (-4.5)                    31          0.6346     0.5226     0.7368     

     Kentucky (O 42.5)                 17
     Louisville (-12.5)                34          0.8702     0.6175     0.6815     

     Cincinnati (O 52)                 30
     Temple (+5.5)                     26          0.6086     0.5315     0.5497     

     West Virginia (-7)                37
     Iowa St (U 66.5)                  28          0.7083     0.5468     0.5487     

     North Texas (+5)                  23
     UTSA (O 34)                       21          0.5648     0.6947     0.6653     

     Old Dominion (U 68)               30
     Florida Atl (-3.5)                37          0.6612     0.5820     0.5510     

     Rice (O 45)                       21
     Louisiana Tech (-7)               35          0.8138     0.6692     0.7365     

     Illinois (O 47)                   24
     Northwestern (-8)                 33          0.7205     0.5263     0.6610     

*******************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    Purdue (O 49.5)                   30
*    Indiana (-3)                      38          0.6741     0.6073     0.8762     
*******************************************************************************

     NC State (O 65.5)                 30
     North Carolina (-7.5)             40          0.7190     0.5523     0.6030     

     Syracuse (+11)                    17
     Boston College (O 41.5)           26          0.7382     0.5493     0.5107     

     UL Lafayette (U 65)               37
     Troy (+10.5)                      27          0.7287     0.5182     0.5828     

     Utah (-9)                         35
     Colorado (U 59)                   23          0.7864     0.5869     0.5284     

     Texas St (-13.5)                  38
     Georgia St (U 73)                 23          0.8146     0.5328     0.7397     

     Idaho (+17)                       23
     Appalachian St (U 75)             40          0.8411     0.5078     0.7628     

*******************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Spread
*    New Mexico St (O 64.5)            17
*    Arkansas St (-22)                 50          0.9768     0.7361     0.5299     
*******************************************************************************

     Wyoming (+4.5)                    33
     New Mexico (U 65)                 34          0.5032     0.6064     0.5244     

     Florida (O 40)                    19
     Florida St (-7.5)                 31          0.7734     0.6026     0.7643     

     Mississippi St (U 54)             21
     Mississippi (+2)                  24          0.5868     0.6389     0.7211     

     Baylor (-25)                      59
     Texas Tech (O 77.5)               30          0.9509     0.5951     0.6737     

     Michigan St (U 39.5)              26
     Penn St (+13.5)                   14          0.7995     0.5453     0.5010     

     Minnesota (O 46)                  16
     Wisconsin (-13.5)                 34          0.8830     0.6115     0.5671     

     Notre Dame (+7)                   26
     USC (U 60)                        30          0.5980     0.5806     0.6304     

     San Jose St (U 46.5)              19
     San Diego St (-5.5)               28          0.7256     0.5893     0.5289     

     Rutgers (U 52.5)                  21
     Maryland (-8.5)                   30          0.7147     0.5050     0.5075     

     UAB (-4)                          35
     Southern Miss (O 59)              27          0.6993     0.6078     0.5786     

     Kansas (U 54.5)                   7
     Kansas St (-28)                   38          0.9840     0.5849     0.7042     

     Connecticut (O 41)                13
     Memphis (-20.5)                   34          0.9272     0.5186     0.5723     

     Tennessee (O 46)                  33
     Vanderbilt (+17)                  17          0.8461     0.5394     0.6316     

     BYU (+4)                          38
     California (O 62.5)               34          0.5888     0.6784     0.6686     

     UL Monroe (+14)                   17
     Georgia So (U 54.5)               33          0.7934     0.5267     0.5672     

     Hawaii (U 66)                     24
     Fresno St (-11)                   37          0.7973     0.5557     0.6193     

     Wake Forest (+18)                 13
     Duke (O 36)                       31          0.8864     0.5058     0.7419     

     Pittsburgh (O 52)                 23
     Miami Fl (-6.5)                   35          0.7834     0.6432     0.6277     

     Middle Tenn St (+4)               27
     Texas-El Paso (U 60)              31          0.5966     0.5033     0.5549     

     Auburn (+9.5)                     21
     Alabama (U 56.5)                  30          0.7205     0.5140     0.5913     

     Oregon (-20)                      45
     Oregon St (U 78)                  24          0.8953     0.5182     0.6897     

     Utah St (+9)                      23
     Boise St (U 52.5)                 28          0.6365     0.5954     0.5225     

     Washington (-3.5)                 34
     Washington St (U 68.5)            26          0.6853     0.6029     0.7027     

     Nevada (-9.5)                     38
     UNLV (U 67.5)                     27          0.7427     0.5261     0.5725     


2014 Record
                    Straight-up                  vs. Spread                Over/Under 
Last Week        39-14-0     0.736            29-24-0     0.547          27-26-0    0.509
Season          466-168-0    0.735           310-318-6    0.494         363-265-6   0.577
 
                                        
                             Best Bet (Spread)         Best Bet (Over/Under)         
Last Week                     0-1-0    0.000               1-0-0  1.000            
Season                        2-11-0   0.154               8-4-1  0.654           

      
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)"

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous weeks predictions: week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9 week 10 week 11 week 12 week 13

To check out the NFL page click here.

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.