The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

Week 1

 
 
 

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

    
*******************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Point Spread
*    California (-20)                  49
*    Hawaii (O 62)                     17          0.9558     0.7342     0.5764     
*******************************************************************************

     Tulane (+17.5)                    12
     Wake Forest (U 43)                28          0.8319     0.5318     0.5672     

     Charlotte (U 61)                  7
     Louisville (-39)                  50          0.9899     0.5694     0.6094     

     Appalachian St (+21)              20
     Tennessee (U 57.5)                37          0.8185     0.5969     0.5577     

     Indiana (-9)                      38
     Florida Intl (O 61)               26          0.7411     0.5700     0.5853     

     Rice (O 63)                       23
     W Kentucky (-17)                  52          0.9319     0.7326     0.7188     

     South Carolina (+3.5)             24
     Vanderbilt (U 42.5)               17          0.6561     0.7286     0.5106     

     Oregon St (+13)                   20
     Minnesota (O 50)                  32          0.7572     0.5150     0.5196     

     Ball St (+3)                      31
     Georgia St (O 54)                 26          0.6102     0.6705     0.5268     

     Army (U 46)                       13
     Temple (-17)                      35          0.8943     0.6024     0.5041     

     Colorado St (+8)                  27
     Colorado (O 54)                   30          0.5687     0.6088     0.5292     

     Toledo (+3)                       37
     Arkansas St (O 66.5)              31          0.6132     0.6708     0.5021     

     Kansas St (O 50)                  19
     Stanford (-15.5)                  38          0.8510     0.5765     0.6306     

     Georgia Tech (-3.5)               23
     Boston College (U 44)             17          0.6380     0.5562     0.6032     

     Missouri (+10.5)                  14
     West Virginia (U 50.5)            24          0.7275     0.5096     0.7382     

     Hawaii (+41.5)                    6
     Michigan (U 50)                   45          0.9881     0.5588     0.5080     

     S Alabama (O 57)                  13
     Mississippi St (-31.5)            48          0.9708     0.5608     0.5129     

     W Michigan (+6.5)                 21
     Northwestern (U 51.5)             27          0.6367     0.5086     0.5748     

     Oklahoma (-10)                    37
     Houston (U 68)                    24          0.7607     0.5675     0.6237     

     Boise St (-20.5)                  47
     UL Lafayette (O 62.5)             17          0.9431     0.6881     0.5201     

     Bowling Green (+27.5)             23
     Ohio St (O 61.5)                  44          0.8631     0.6358     0.6019     

     Rutgers (+26.5)                   13
     Washington (U 55)                 38          0.9220     0.5312     0.5912     

     UCLA (+2.5)                       28
     Texas A&M (O 55)                  27          0.5191     0.5736     0.5083     

     LSU (U 44.5)                      23
     Wisconsin (+9.5)                  21          0.5527     0.6684     0.5450     

     Texas St (+21)                    20
     Ohio (U 58)                       36          0.8139     0.6049     0.5756     

*******************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    Kent St (U 46)                    3
*    Penn St (-20)                     30          0.9519     0.6585     0.7575     
*******************************************************************************

     Miami Oh (U 52)                   7
     Iowa (-27.5)                      41          0.9742     0.6405     0.5540     

     Louisiana Tech (+25.5)            21
     Arkansas (O 54)                   40          0.8455     0.6393     0.6377     

     Georgia (O 54.5)                  28
     North Carolina (+2.5)             33          0.6085     0.6584     0.6369     

     SMU (U 65.5)                      29
     North Texas (+9.5)                28          0.5171     0.6821     0.6850     

     San Jose St (+4)                  34
     Tulsa (U 70)                      35          0.5146     0.5676     0.5264     

     Massachusetts (+36)               10
     Florida (U 48.5)                  36          0.9323     0.7257     0.5423     

     Southern Miss (+6.5)              30
     Kentucky (U 63.5)                 33          0.5682     0.5695     0.5483     

     USC (U 54)                        17
     Alabama (-10.5)                   31          0.7857     0.5745     0.5839     

     New Mexico St (O 60)              27
     Texas-El Paso (-7.5)              37          0.6907     0.5413     0.5775     

     Fresno St (+28.5)                 21
     Nebraska (O 61.5)                 48          0.9185     0.5357     0.6235     

     Clemson (-7)                      33
     Auburn (U 59)                     24          0.6786     0.5322     0.5547     

     N Illinois (-10.5)                35
     Wyoming (U 56)                    21          0.7842     0.5825     0.5102     

     Arizona (O 63)                    31
     BYU (+1.5)                        35          0.5805     0.6112     0.5911     

     Notre Dame (-4.5)                 30
     Texas (U 60.5)                    21          0.6900     0.5969     0.6773     

     Mississippi (+4)                  31
     Florida St (U 56)                 26          0.6040     0.6868     0.5474     



2016 Record
                    Straight-up                  vs. Spread                Over/Under 
Last Week         0-0-0     0.000              0-0-0    0.000            0-0-0    0.000
Season            0-0-0     0.000              0-0-0    0.000            0-0-0    0.000
 
                                        
                             Best Bet (Spread)         Best Bet (Over/Under)         
Last Week                     0-0-0     0.000             0-0-0     0.000            
Season                        0-0-0     0.000             0-0-0     0.000           

      
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)"

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous weeks predictions: wait for there to be previous weeks.

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To check out the NFL page click here.

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.