The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

Week 13

 
 
 

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The small numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

     
     N Illinois (-3)                   31
     Ohio (O 48.5)                     26          0.6314     0.5569     0.6484     

     Massachusetts (+7)                23
     Akron (U 54.5)                    26          0.5745     0.6073     0.6278     

     Kent St (O 47)                    21
     Buffalo (-7)                      30          0.7277     0.5575     0.5758     

     Bowling Green (U 70)              28
     Toledo (-5)                       34          0.6331     0.5129     0.6407     

     Kansas St (+2)                    31
     West Virginia (O 58)              28          0.5731     0.6212     0.5400     

     North Carolina (O 66.5)           30
     Duke (-6)                         40          0.7345     0.6045     0.5485     

     Arkansas St (-6.5)                33
     Texas St (U 58)                   24          0.7212     0.5702     0.5380     

     Texas-El Paso (O 53.5)            20
     Rice (-9)                         34          0.8114     0.6172     0.5191     

     San Jose St (U 46.5)              16
     Utah St (-11.5)                   30          0.8217     0.5528     0.5644     

     Air Force (+4)                    23
     San Diego St (U 50)               26          0.5859     0.5198     0.5525     

     SMU (O 47)                        10
     C Florida (-28)                   41          0.9788     0.5671     0.5780     

     Kansas (U 59)                     9
     Oklahoma (-28.5)                  42          0.9850     0.5989     0.7097     

     Penn St (O 41)                    27
     Illinois (+6.5)                   21          0.6647     0.5036     0.6480     

     Rutgers (+22)                     13
     Michigan St (U 62.5)              35          0.9258     0.5052     0.7603     

     Marshall (O 66)                   47
     UAB (+20)                         30          0.8364     0.5717     0.7183     

*********************************************************************************
* Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    Indiana (O 62)                    23
*    Ohio St (-34.5)                   59          0.9810     0.5336     0.8586     
*********************************************************************************

     Northwestern (-2)                 31
     Purdue (O 41.5)                   23          0.6876     0.6398     0.7456     

*********************************************************************************
* Best Bet against the Spread
*    UTSA (+10)                        28
*    W Kentucky (U 59.5)               26          0.5465     0.7741     0.6108     
*********************************************************************************

     S Alabama (U 65.5)                14
     South Carolina (-22)              41          0.9609     0.6324     0.7509     

     Minnesota (O 49.5)                21
     Nebraska (-10.5)                  34          0.8040     0.5700     0.6040     

     Virginia Tech (O 34)              24
     Wake Forest (+15)                 10          0.8497     0.5179     0.5280     

     Louisiana Tech (-11.5)            48
     Old Dominion (O 59.5)             26          0.8916     0.7162     0.7614     

     W Michigan (+1)                   26
     C Michigan (U 53.5)               27          0.5243     0.5018     0.5400     

     Washington St (U 72.5)            26
     Arizona St (-16.5)                47          0.8966     0.6102     0.5038     

     New Mexico (U 74)                 21
     Colorado St (-22)                 43          0.9143     0.5067     0.6769     

     E Michigan (O 55.5)               16
     Ball St (-17)                     42          0.9532     0.7224     0.5557     

     Tulsa (O 57.5)                    20
     Houston (-20)                     41          0.9078     0.5274     0.5746     

     Florida Intl (O 38)               19
     North Texas (-2.5)                28          0.7188     0.6597     0.7046     

     Georgia St (O 63)                 9
     Clemson (-41)                     59          0.9987     0.6935     0.5725     

     Tulane (O 55.5)                   19
     East Carolina (-17)               38          0.8801     0.5364     0.5215     

     Texas Tech (O 68.5)               35
     Iowa St (-1.5)                    38          0.5807     0.5458     0.5703     

     Arizona (+4)                      26
     Utah (U 60)                       30          0.5982     0.5037     0.6196     

     Maryland (O 38)                   21
     Michigan (-5)                     27          0.6423     0.5128     0.7595     

     Wisconsin (-9.5)                  27
     Iowa (U 48)                       17          0.7562     0.5200     0.5672     

     Louisville (+3.5)                 26
     Notre Dame (O 42.5)               27          0.5310     0.5607     0.6732     

     Mississippi (-3)                  27
     Arkansas (U 53)                   20          0.6819     0.6054     0.7226     

     Boston College (O 51.5)           17
     Florida St (-19.5)                41          0.9353     0.6110     0.6801     

     Syracuse (+8)                     23
     Pittsburgh (U 47.5)               26          0.5749     0.6349     0.5087     

     South Florida (+18.5)             10
     Memphis (U 46.5)                  27          0.8861     0.5379     0.6767     

     Stanford (-6)                     35
     California (U 56)                 23          0.7812     0.6524     0.5004     

     UL Monroe (-8)                    34
     New Mexico St (O 52)              23          0.7656     0.5824     0.5588     

     Colorado (U 83.5)                 20
     Oregon (-33)                      59          0.9888     0.6352     0.6025     

     Appalachian St (+10)              28
     UL Lafayette (U 67.5)             34          0.6423     0.5965     0.6378     

     Miami Fl (-6)                     30
     Virginia (O 46)                   21          0.7228     0.5776     0.6100     

     Florida Atl (U 62.5)              24
     Middle Tenn St (-6.5)             31          0.6722     0.5093     0.7000     

     Oklahoma St (+27)                 24
     Baylor (O 66)                     51          0.9412     0.5051     0.7016     

     Vanderbilt (+29.5)                14
     Mississippi St (U 55)             38          0.9389     0.6535     0.6004     

     Missouri (+3.5)                   24
     Tennessee (O 41.5)                23          0.5214     0.6123     0.6771     

     Cincinnati (-10.5)                34
     Connecticut (U 55.5)              23          0.7542     0.5054     0.5310     

     USC (U 69)                        27
     UCLA (-3)                         31          0.6013     0.5257     0.7627     

     Boise St (U 63)                   37
     Wyoming (+13)                     27          0.7273     0.5796     0.5132     

     Fresno St (U 68.5)                27
     Nevada (-8)                       41          0.7959     0.6341     0.5048     

     Oregon St (U 54.5)                21
     Washington (-6.5)                 31          0.7430     0.5895     0.5569     

     UNLV (U 62)                       21
     Hawaii (-10)                      34          0.8029     0.5825     0.6299     



2014 Record
                    Straight-up                  vs. Spread                Over/Under 
Last Week        35-15-0     0.700            30-20-0     0.600          28-22-0    0.560
Season          427-154-0    0.735           281-294-6    0.489         336-239-6   0.583
 
                                        
                             Best Bet (Spread)         Best Bet (Over/Under)         
Last Week                     0-1-0    0.000               1-0-0  0.000            
Season                        2-10-0   0.167               7-4-1  0.625           

      
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)"

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous weeks predictions: week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9 week 10 week 11 week 12

To check out the NFL page click here.

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.