The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings . The results are sorted by start time. The small numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O. The money line is number on hundreds in parentheses. The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under. The final number is the expected return from a $100 money line bet. Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread, over/ under and money line are listed at the bottom of the page.

2009 Record Straight-up vs. Spread Over/Under MoneyLine Last Week 12-2-0 0.857 8-5-1 0.607 10-4-0 0.714 10.84-6 0.644 Season 545-179-0 0.753 374-336-4 0.527 388-322-4 0.546 286.70-349 0.451 Best Bet (Spread) Best Bet (Over/Under) Best Bet(Money Line) Last Week 1-0-0 1.000 1-0-0 1.000 0-1-0 0.000 Season 9-8-1 0.528 14-4-0 0.778 10.42-15-0 0.420 Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net "Printer-friendly page" "Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)" "Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)" "Money line page (sorted by value)" To take a look at the underlying rankings click here. To review previous weeks predictions: week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9 week 10 week 11 week 12 week 13 week 14 week 15 week 16 week 17 week 18 To check out the NFL page click here. Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.